MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The coronavirus pandemic in Moscow may end by early summer this year, immunologist Vladislav Zhemchugov told TASS Tuesday.
"I believe that the pandemic will end in Moscow by late May - early summer," he said.
He explained that Moscow has become the first region to join the epidemiological process in the beginning of the pandemic. Besides, the population density in Moscow is rather high, transportation is well-developed, and a large number of people have already taken the coronavirus vaccine.
According to Zhemchugov, timeframe for herd immunity establishment depends on the population density, its demographic composition and the number of people who have already contacted the virus. For example, in Moscow, the herd immunity can already stand at about 60%, because the statistics does not include people who lived through the infection without symptoms.
"In order to calculate this figure [herd immunity], we must multiply the number of detected cases by about 10, and this will be the number of people with immunity; and then we must add the vaccinated people on top of them. This is the number that must be calculated in relation to the region’s population," he explained.
He noted that the timeframe for achievement of herd immunity, required for total withdrawal of restrictions, will vary across regions.
"Russia is very big. The herd immunity must be calculated in every region separately, because our regions are very different. We cannot compare Moscow to Chukotka or Altai, for example," he said.
Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said in an interview for TASS that the 60% herd immunity, required for full withdrawal of restrictions, may form across Russia by August, should the vaccination proceed at the same rate as it does now, adding that it could happen earlier, should vaccination rate be increased.