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OPEC+ to use verbal interventions in oil market for now — experts

At a meeting on November 30, 2023, several OPEC+ members agreed to additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 mln barrels per day for the Q1 of 2024

MOSCOW, January 7. /TASS/. Following the voluntary reduction in oil output announced at a meeting in November, OPEC+ countries will take a wait-and-see strategy against the backdrop of steady prices, according to experts interviewed by TASS. At the same time, proposals for further measures to limit production will be made, but they will be merely verbal interventions, because new cuts may face resistance inside OPEC+.

At a meeting on November 30, 2023, several OPEC+ members agreed to additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 mln barrels per day for the Q1 of 2024.

According to Sergey Kondratyev, Principal Director on Economic Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, OPEC+ countries are currently in a tough situation. He noted that the alliance members have proved their market impact and ability to stabilize the situation, but they are also on the verge of being locked in the 1980s, lowering production and making room in the market for other manufacturers.

"I believe that proposals to reduce quotas will be heard, but I am not sure that they will be implemented. Within OPEC+, opposition to new cuts is already strong and will only rise. As a result, I believe we should now expect more verbal interventions," the expert said.

According to Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko, additional OPEC+ output restrictions may be essential only if oil prices fall any further. "As long as the oil price is stable, OPEC+ will most likely adopt a wait-and-see attitude," he said.

In turn, Stanislav Mitrakhovich, senior expert at the National Energy Security Found and a researcher at the Financial University under the Russian Government, predicts that OPEC+ will take further steps to limit oil output in early 2024. The analyst stressed that the alliance's November decisions did not impress the market. "OPEC+, in my opinion, will have to meet at the start of 2024. I don't rule out the possibility that when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the boundaries of the new agreement were also tentatively discussed there. I believe that such a deal will most likely be struck early this year," Mitrakhovich forecasts.

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