MOSCOW, January 9. /TASS/. Russia and Ukraine kick off the new year with an intensified exchange of cross-border strikes; Israel signals its readiness to expand military operations to a second front in Lebanon; and no substantive change is expected in Washington’s hawkish, anti-Russian foreign policy course no matter who wins the US presidential election in November. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia, Ukraine trade strikes to open 2024 as Kiev awaits stalled aid
In early January, the Russian Armed Forces intensified strikes on strategic targets in Ukrainian rear areas. On January 8, the Russian Defense Ministry reported of a group strike with "sea-and air-based long-range high-precision weapons, including the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system, on targets in Ukraine’s military-industrial complex." The Kiev regime has also been increasing its artillery and rocket strikes on Russia’s borderline regions, using tactical weapons, drones and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).
Colonel (Ret.) Vladimir Popov, a military expert, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that, in the West, many politicians and experts are already very skeptical about the Ukrainian army’s chances of winning given that the fate of further large-scale aid deliveries from the US and EU is now up in the air. For example, during a briefing on January 4, US National Security Council (NSC) Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby said that the issue of additional financing for the Kiev regime had not been resolved. "Absent supplemental funding, there's no other magical pot to dip into to try to get support for Ukraine," he emphasized. Kirby acknowledged that Moscow still has substantial military potential at its disposal.
Meanwhile, military aid continues to trickle into Kiev even as major assistance packages have been stalled by political wrangling in Washington and other Western capitals. "Right now, we should not take a simplified view in assessing the Ukrainian army’s combat ability," military expert Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yuri Netkachev said, noting that the Kiev regime is still receiving military aid. "According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 54 foreign countries are aiding Ukraine in the conflict with Russia, having spent over $203 bln. And many countries intend to continue providing assistance to Ukraine." The expert noted that, recently, the German Defense Ministry reported supplying Ukraine with ten Marder infantry fighting vehicles with munitions and spare parts, meaning that the Bundeswehr has allocated enough hardware and ammunition to equip an entire Ukrainian mechanized company. Additionally, Germany has supplied Ukraine with shells for the newest modification of Leopard 2 A6 tanks. Berlin has also delivered almost 10,000 155 mm shells, air defense systems and hardware to Kiev.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Israel ready to expand military operation to second front in Lebanon
The Biden administration in Washington is concerned that Israel may be preparing to launch full-scale combat operations in Lebanon. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is now visiting Middle Eastern capitals, including Tel Aviv, where he will deliver the message that a broader conflict is inadmissible. The top brass of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is publicly giving assurances that a standoff with Lebanon-based Hezbollah is not among its priorities. Meanwhile, however, according to the Israeli media, some IDF representatives are requesting that the General Staff and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet consider taking severe actions against the militant Shiite group.
"Israel does have the necessary reserves and resources for expanding combat on the Lebanese front, given the fall mobilization of reserves and the US aid in the form of munitions, hardware and other [materiel]," said Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. "However, the Israeli leadership may face two problems. The Lebanese Hezbollah, in terms of arms and so on, is a much stronger adversary than the Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip, and, so, in the event [Tel Aviv decides on] expanding the conflict with [Hezbollah], Israel may encounter incomparably more massive, surgical and prolonged shelling attacks from Lebanon, which would put increased pressure on Israel’s rear areas," he added.
That said, the expert stressed that the Israeli economy is already beginning to experience labor shortage problems over the dwindling workforce due to mass mobilization of IDF reserves. "Additionally, because most of the best-armed and trained Israeli forces are fighting in the Gaza Strip, the expansion of the conflict with Hezbollah should result in increased losses among the mobilized reserves. Given all that, however, the Israeli authorities are quite capable of deciding to expand the conflict [to Lebanon]," Lyamin concluded.
Izvestia: No substantive shift seen in US foreign policy after election
A victory by virtually any of the current candidates vying for the top office in the current US presidential election will lead to increased global tensions. On the eve of the first party primary elections and caucuses in January in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire, most pundits are still expecting the general election in November to be a rematch fight between former President Donald Trump for the Republicans and incumbent President Joe Biden for the Democrats. Yet, even if either or both of the two major parties eventually nominate other candidates, Washington’s current negative attitude toward Moscow will remain consistent, with any change only for the worse toward further deterioration. Overall, the majority of presidential candidates in both parties have a hawkish, negative attitude not only toward Russia, but also to other geopolitical players such as China and North Korea.
According to experts, Biden is likely to continue his "hawkish" policy with regard to all of Washington’s "antagonists," such as North Korea and China, with the latter remaining the main perceived threat to US interests. It is also highly unlikely that Biden would walk away from providing further aid to Ukraine and Israel, even if such support is heavy on rhetoric but light on substance.
Peter Kuznick, a professor of history at American University in Washington, says that, by blindly supporting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US ends up looking like the world’s greatest hypocrite given its full-throated condemnation of the death of civilians in Ukraine even as it arms and supports Israel, abetting Tel Aviv’s commission of far worse atrocities in Gaza. In his view, it was not surprising that the authoritative Economist magazine noted that, while Biden stated that the US and its allies were engaged in a battle between autocracy and democracy, the Global South and the rest of the world see the situation as a battle between autocracy and hypocrisy.
According to political commentator Alex Krainer, the founder of Krainer Analytics, Trump would be a better candidate to restore the US-Russia relationship. In his opinion, the same goes for Ukraine, because the expert thinks that Trump would try to conclude the most pragmatic deal with the Russian leadership and pin the blame for the catastrophe on the Biden administration. Krainer also told Izvestia that Trump could potentially facilitate the reunification of the two Koreas.
According to the experts, Republican presidential candidates Nikki Haley, former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor, and Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, are considered to be the most hostile with regard to Russia and other traditional "enemies" of the US.
Kuznick notes that they continue to demonize Russia while supporting a "doubling down" on efforts to "beat" China. In his opinion, they are both nostalgic for the black-and-white simplicity of the first Cold War and would do their best as president to ensure that the US continues to fuel the current cold war. Kuznick thinks that these actions will trigger a large-scale increase in military spending and the reinforcement of US global hegemony. The expert added that either one of these GOP candidates could also provoke a war with Iran.
Kommersant: Bitcoin growing at expense of competition
The price of bitcoin has surpassed $46,000 amid its steady growth in the first days of the new year. That said, price quotes for other leading cryptocurrencies have been dropping. Experts think that bitcoin is gaining liquidity while awaiting approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a number of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from leading financial institutions. Additionally, the upcoming halving has fueled bullish speculation. Analysts are confident that, this year, bitcoin may test the $100,000 level unless key regulators toughen their policy toward cryptocurrency overall.
Chances to launch ETFs in the near future are rather high, says Gleb Kostarev, former head for Asia and Eastern Europe at Binance. According to him, issuers are already fighting for clients with commissions ranging from 0 to 1.5%. The expert says that the majority of analysts concur that the regulator can no longer postpone ETFs and the long-awaited green-light will be received this week.
That said, market players are waiting to see whether the bitcoin price record ($69,000) achieved in November 2021 will be topped this year. If the bitcoin ETF is approved and "in the absence of the US Treasury and SEC tightening the screws," it is quite possible to see the $100,000 level being tested, BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov thinks. Additionally, the price of ETH, the second most popular cryptocurrency, in his estimate, may reach a new high and become more expensive by several-fold during the year.
Kommersant: Russia’s LNG exports drop by 2% in 2023
In 2023, Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants produced 32.33 mln tons of LNG, which is only 2% less than in the previous year. The drop is related to the summer maintenance campaign on the Yamal LNG and Sakhalin-2 lines, which was partially compensated for by the launch of a new medium-duty project on the Baltic Sea. In December, LNG exports reached 3.2 mln tons, the highest level seen in 2023. Exports to Europe at the year-end slightly surpassed the 2022 figures, having reached 16.42 mln tons, but analysts expect supplies to fall in 2024.
In December, Russia’s LNG exports to Japan from Gazprom’s Sakhalin-2 increased. According to Viktor Katona at commodities data and analytics firm Kpler, in October-December, Japan for the first time fully restored its imports from Sakhalin to the pre-February 2022 level. In December, exports from Sakhalin-2 to Japan reached 0.7 mln tons, or nearly 20% higher than a year ago.
Sergey Kondratyev, an expert at the Institute of Energy and Finance Foundation, is optimistic about the sector’s prospects in 2024, expecting that LNG production in Russia will grow to 35.8-36.1 mln tons, taking into account the average annual load of the first line of Arctic LNG-2 at the 40-45% level. "I think that in 2024 we will see lowered exports to the EU due to the continued reformatting of the European market, the stabilization of gas prices at a relatively low level and increased sanctions pressure," he thinks. The analyst says that by the end of 2024, deliveries to Europe may drop to 12-13 mln tons.
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