MOSCOW, July 19. /TASS/. Kiev looking for workaround export options after Moscow pulled plug on Black Sea grain deal; Russia-Africa Summit to focus primarily on political issues given global tensions; and Washington considering military options for reacting to Russian aircraft maneuvers in Syria. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Kiev looking for workaround options in post-grain deal environment
The West will take up the search for an alternative to the now-defunct Black Sea grain deal at a meeting of European Union foreign ministers on July 20, an EU official said. Kiev is also looking for ways to export grain after the Black Sea Grain Initiative ended upon Russia's withdrawal. Several options are under consideration, including a continuation of maritime exports regardless of Russia’s position and grain transportation along the Danube River. Either option would entail economic or security costs, Izvestia writes.
"Turkey is the only country other than Russia with the capability to ensure safe passage of vessels to the northwestern part of the Black Sea region. Turkey would not violate the Montreux Convention. The question is how we will react to that," political scientist Andrey Suzdaltsev noted. He believes that the Russian Armed Forces could wipe out the terminals in Odessa Region ports that were used in grain deal operations.
Transit through Danube ports may be a solution for the Ukrainian authorities. However, Ukrainian Grain Association President Nikolay Gorbachev admits that grain exports will fall, while transportation costs will be higher. The Danube is a rather shallow river and only low-tonnage cargo vessels are capable of navigating it, which will in turn increase export costs, Suzdaltsev pointed out.
Still, the end of the grain deal plays into the West’s hands, said Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. "The grain deal gave the Ukrainian leadership and the West time to develop arrangements for ensuring land-based exports of Ukrainian grain to the West. The grain deal was an opportunity to prepare for rolling out a new logistics model that would benefit Western countries," Ofitserov-Belsky maintained.
However, the current situation may spark future tensions in Europe. The grain that was exported from Ukraine by sea under the grain deal had been delivered to southern European countries, where it was then stored before being forwarded to final destination countries. Now, the only remaining route runs through Eastern Europe, where a rise in Ukrainian agricultural imports may once again spark discontent among local farmers.
Vedomosti: Russia-Africa Summit agenda to prioritize political issues
Experts believe that the second Russia-Africa Summit, set to be held in St. Petersburg on July 27-28, will differ from the first such event, which took place in Sochi in October 2019, Vedomosti writes, citing a report by the Petersburg Politics foundation.
Attitudes toward Russia throughout the world have become polarized since the start of Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine, and African nations have been no exception. A group of African countries led by South Africa have put forward a peace initiative to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. Meanwhile, Russia’s influence on the social and economic situation in African countries has increased in line with rising prices for food, fertilizer and energy.
This year, political and security issues will prevail at the Russia-Africa Summit, said Alexey Maslov, director of Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies. "First, the agenda of the 2019 summit has not been implemented yet because of changes in the international political situation. Second, the African track in Moscow’s [foreign] policy is part of Russia’s overall pivot to the Global South, which is why political issues will most likely dominate the forum," the expert pointed out.
African countries have been facing significant pressure from the West for the past year, so the second summit will take place in a tenser atmosphere than the first one, Rakhimbek Bobokhonov, senior researcher at the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for African Studies, noted. However, African nations have no fear of the West and have no plans to jettison their cooperative relations with Russia to satisfy the West’s demands. For Africa, Russia is currently the partner of choice, which is getting a warmer reception than the West and even China. In addition, Moscow’s ties with Africa may only become stronger in the near future because, with the grain deal now dead, Russian companies and African countries will negotiate directly at the summit on supplies of food and humanitarian aid. As regards the Wagner Private Military Company, Bobokhonov believes that it will continue to operate in Africa.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US mulling options in reaction to Russian aircraft maneuvers in Syria
The Pentagon has announced plans to increase the US military presence in the Middle East. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the US Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Thomas Hubner with F-16 and F-35 fighters on board to the Strait of Hormuz. When commenting on the deployment of additional forces, Washington pointed to military challenges from Iran, but Western media outlets’ sources in the Pentagon made it clear that Syria is also under scrutiny as the US military is wary of incidents involving Russian aircraft, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
Politico, citing sources, reported on July 18 that, last weekend, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet had flown very close to a US surveillance aircraft over Syria, forcing it to go through the Russian jet’s turbulent wake and impeding the US air crew’s ability to safely operate the plane. A Pentagon spokesperson, quoted by Israel’s Hayom newspaper, said earlier that Washington was considering ways to respond to the alarming maneuvers of Russian aircraft in Syria. According to him, even military options are under consideration.
According to Al-Monitor, a number of Pentagon officials view the increased US presence in the Strait of Hormuz area as a response to the fears of Washington’s regional allies. The Gulf states remain concerned that the situation in Europe and Asia has become more important for the White House than events in the Middle East and North Africa.
Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, pointed out that the Pentagon had not specified the number of F-16 and F-35 aircraft it planned to deploy to the region. "However, judging by the decision to send only one aircraft carrier there, this must be about just a moderate, albeit noticeable, enhancement of US forces already deployed to the Persian Gulf region," the expert noted.
Lyamin emphasized that this was not the first occasion in recent times when the US announced an expansion of its military footprint in the Middle East. A month ago, news came about the deployment of US F-22 fighter jets. Still, the analyst did not rule out that the US might use the F-35s in Syria. "The Americans have tanker aircraft [stationed] there, which are capable of refueling US fighter jets in the air," the expert explained.
Izvestia: Brussels will not green-light EU membership for Turkey in 2024
Turkey will not succeed in becoming a member of the European Union next year, a European Commission (EC) official told Izvestia. According to Peter Stano, the EC’s lead spokesperson for foreign affairs and security policy, joining the EU is a process that takes years, not hours. Experts believe that, in fact, Ankara is not actually expecting that Turkey will attain EU membership but is merely seeking to gain concessions from Brussels on upgrading the EU-Turkey Customs Union and to enhance the country’s investment appeal.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on July 10, on the eve of the NATO summit, that Ankara would approve Sweden’s NATO membership bid but only after obstacles to Turkey’s path to EU membership were removed. In turn, the EC immediately stated that Turkey’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership could not be linked to the country’s progress toward EU membership. French Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Thierry Mariani told Izvestia that he saw no point in resuming EU accession talks with Turkey. According to the MEP, the agreement signed on the sidelines of the NATO summit is basically about the obligations of Sweden, which has been making every possible pretense that it is actually working to promote the cause of Turkey joining the EU.
Turkey holds the record for the longest waiting period of any applicant country to join the EU. In contrast to Croatia, which waited 10 years; North Macedonia (about 17 years); Montenegro (around 12 years); and Serbia (11 years), Turkey has been waiting for nearly half a century.
Turkish political scientist Kerim Has said that Erdogan is not so naive as to really expect a breakthrough in talks with Europe. According to the expert, Ankara needs to ensure that Turkey’s EU membership is supported at least at the rhetorical level of official statements because this may help improve the country’s economic situation. Erdogan is counting on attracting Western investment and investors pay attention to the assessments of Western rating agencies, such as Fitch and Moody’s. Thus, it is critical that the leaders of Western countries and organizations be on record saying positive things about Turkey’s EU membership prospects. If such high-level support for Turkey’s EU aspirations is forthcoming, it may help sway outside investors, the expert contended.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: How Russia could return to European gas market
Legislative initiatives to liberalize the rules for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have been submitted to the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament). Draft amendments to the gas export law would allow LNG exports without linking them to specific gas fields. So far, exports have been allowed only for those companies obtaining gas from fields whose licenses authorize gas output for LNG production purposes, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
If enacted, the changes would boost the investment attractiveness of new LNG projects and the likelihood that earlier projected gas liquefaction facilities will actually be built. If at least some of them are launched, Russia would be able to produce about 140 mln metric tons of LNG per annum, which is comparable to the level of Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe in the past.
The fact that exports would no longer be linked to already existing gas fields would "untie the hands" of virtually all gas market players, said Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government and an expert at the Infotek think tank. In addition, new projects may emerge as companies will have a chance to redirect free gas volumes from various deposits to liquefaction plants targeted at serving foreign markets.
With the Nord Stream gas pipelines now out of commission due to sabotage, there is almost no hope that Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe could return to previous levels. The only option is to increase LNG exports. Leading analyst at Otkritie Investment Andrey Kochetkov says that, given the reduced opportunities for pipeline gas exports, developing the LNG industry is becoming a priority because it would allow Russia to free itself from dependence on certain markets.
Andrianov said that promoting LNG supplies would make it possible to actually maintain Russia’s gas exports, especially as pipeline exports are being redirected to China and Turkey.
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