Vedomosti: IAEA may leave permanent observers at Zaporozhye plant
A mission from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is on its way to the Russian-controlled Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (NPP), according to agency director Rafael Grossi. A delegation of 13 people is expected to stay there until September 3, but a group of agency specialists may remain at the nuclear facility to monitor the situation in the future, Russia's Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said. According to Vedomosti, Moscow is interested in this visit, looking forward to the mission's assistance in ensuring the station’s security.
The shelling of the Zaporozhye nuclear power facility in Energodar by the Ukrainian Armed Forces has intensified this month, the newspaper writes. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side accused the Russians of self-inflicted attacks. Artillery strikes occasionally caused damage to various structures and power lines, and the nuclear power plant was even disconnected from the Ukrainian energy system on August 25.
The IAEA mission has no political authority and can only examine how and to what extent the NPP follows health and safety standards, expert in international law Sergey Glandin told Vedomosti. Based on the review's findings, the UN Security Council may pass a resolution requiring countries to embark on or refrain from taking specific steps.
The IAEA mission is in charge of determining the extent of the damage caused by the shelling, as well as the safety of units and infrastructure. The most that the delegation can do with regards to the shelling is to list specific hits in the report, Atominfo editor Alexander Uvarov.
Kommersant: EU debates how to help Ukraine and impose restrictions on ordinary Russians
Top officials from all over the EU convened in Prague on Monday. At a dinner, European defense chiefs began debating the subject of setting up an EU training mission for the Ukrainian military. The ministers are expected to reach an agreement by Tuesday evening. On the same day, EU foreign ministries will kick off a two-day discussion on visa restrictions for Russians. According to various statements and information in the media, there is no fear of a complete ban on Russian individuals entering the EU, but the countries will probably agree on tightening the system for issuing Schengen visas to Russians, Kommersant writes.
Following the start of the Russian military operation, various EU countries established training camps for the Ukrainian military, mostly to teach them how to use modern Western weapons. However, Brussels appears to have chosen to move to centralizing military assistance to Kiev, with a mission under consideration serving as its key component.
The next day, the top EU diplomats will attempt to wrap up the arguments on a Schengen visa ban against Russians. According to sources cited by The Financial Times, a compromise might be the termination of the EU visa facilitation arrangement with Russia, which has been in effect since 2007. Russians may lose the ability to acquire multiple multi-visas, while the cost and time required to obtain visas would rise.
Whether such a step will suit the supporters of this tough collective restriction - the Czech Republic, the Baltic countries and Poland - is an open question, Kommersant writes.
Izvestia: German politicians starting to oppose heavy weapons supplies to Kiev
Members of Germany's Social Democratic Party's left wing have called for an end to the supply of heavy weaponry to Ukraine and have advocated for peace negotiations with Russia. This viewpoint differs from Berlin's official rhetoric. Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared on August 29 that the government was ready to tackle the objective of bolstering Ukrainian artillery and air defense systems. Meanwhile, Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that the supply of weapons to Kiev is in peril because of a severe shortage of stocks among German forces. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the government's contradictory statements indicate that, while Berlin will not officially refuse supplies, the number of deliveries will be more symbolic.
Artem Sokolov, a researcher at MGIMO's Institute for International Studies, believes that statements by individual Social Democratic Party members about the need to halt military supplies to Ukraine and begin negotiations are unlikely to change Berlin's official position, at least in terms of public rhetoric. However, according to the expert, "This casts doubt on the notion of a pan-German and, in a broader sense, a pan-European agreement on the necessity of supporting Ukraine at any cost."
He highlighted that Berlin's shipments of heavy weapons to Ukraine's Armed Forces are moving slowly. And, according to the expert, their volume will become more symbolic in the future.
"The statements of the German leadership are quite contradictory," Alexander Kamkin, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia. At the same time, he believes that even the much-discussed delivery of Gepard anti-aircraft guns might represent a major threat to army aviation, but not completely close the airspace.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India driving wedge into West’s anti-Russian sanctions front
US and Indian forces will undertake maneuvers near the contentious India-China border in the fall. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the Pentagon intends to exploit these actions, as well as the QUAD platform (the United States, Japan, Australia, and India), to pressure Delhi to weaken its ties with Moscow. The fact that Washington had previously struck a security communications pact with Delhi plays into Washington's favor. According to experts, India is unlikely to join any sanctions because Russia is its reliable strategic partner.
India's policy in the emerging global conflict between East and West annoys the US and its allies, the newspaper writes. According to Sameed Basha, a defense expert at Deakin University in Australia, India's stance on developments in Ukraine does not look impartial. According to him, India justifies this by citing national interests, but this is essentially a pro-Moscow stance. Worse, the analyst continued, India is splintering the anti-Russian alliance, playing into Moscow's hands.
Vinay Shukla, an Indian foreign policy expert, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta India only acknowledges sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. He emphasized that the West has been putting pressure on India, but so far has been unsuccessful. According to the analyst, New Delhi feels that the West could have averted military actions in Ukraine but chose not to do so because it wanted Russia to be defeated.
Izvestia: What will happen to ruble exchange rate this fall?
The ruble remained around 60 rubles per dollar and euro practically the entire summer, but according to analysts interviewed by Izvestia, the Russian national currency will face a substantial depreciation in the fall. This will be facilitated by the new fiscal law, recovering imports, and the necessity for exporters to enhance their profit margins.
Dmitry Aleksandrov, managing director of Ivolga Capital, told the newspaper that a strong ruble causes the Russian economy to suffer from "Dutch disease," in which it becomes more advantageous to import commodities than to grow domestic production. It is also critical that the depreciation of the ruble contribute to the budget's filling.
According to Kristina Agadzhanova, an independent investment advisor, the process will be aided by the launch of a new fiscal rule and a gradual increase in parallel imports. "The markets are looking forward to the Finance Ministry's decision to begin purchasing currencies from friendly countries. Russia will benefit from a ruble rate closer to 80, which will benefit exporters, who are the primary source of revenue for the government. The only question is when," Director of PWeM invest Yana Konyukhova said.
In turn, Fyodor Sidorov, founder of the School of Practical Investing, stated that sharp changes in the foreign exchange market should not be expected this fall - the regulator and the government cannot allow a new wave of panic like the one that transpired in March of this year.
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