Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US finds new adversaries in Afghanistan
President Biden suddenly said that it is the Islamic State and not the Taliban (both outlawed in Russia) that threaten Americans and the evacuation process from Kabul’s airport. This was immediately followed by reactions from Ahmad Massoud and Amrullah Saleh, the Panjshir resistance leaders, the only opponents of the Taliban in Afghanistan today. Both sharply criticized Washington’s policy and almost directly accused the White House of betrayal. Massoud proposed to Russia to mediate the peace process. According to experts, it is not likely that Moscow will participate, at least, not directly.
While Biden’s statement elicits many questions, since the position of the Islamic State in Afghanistan is not particularly strong, another remark he made was important: the evacuation from the airport will end precisely on August 31. The G7 summit participants were insisting on extending the evacuation to September while the Taliban insisted that the Americans should leave Afghanistan this summer. In any case, Biden clearly indicated that the US is not going to confront the Taliban, at least for now.
Both Afghan leaders in Panjshir condemned this move. Saleh, in a phone interview with India’s News18 TV channel accused the Americans of an erroneous policy regarding Afghanistan. Massoud, who earlier called on the US, France, and the UK for help, in an interview with Paris Match called his address a historic mistake. Now Massoud is asking Russia to act as a mediator. Senior lecturer of the department of international security at the School of World Politics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University Alexei Fenenko in a conversation with the newspaper expressed doubts that the Taliban would agree to any compromises regarding the distribution of power.
"Now the Taliban is riding high with victory and is psychologically not ready to negotiate with the losers. It will be another matter if they get mired in combat. And even then it is unlikely that Russia will mediate the negotiations. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are far better in this regard. However, they will coordinate their positions with Moscow," he thinks. The expert allowed the possibility that the work of the "Dushanbe Four" - Russia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan - will resume with the addition of Uzbekistan to settle the situation in the country.
Earlier, the Kremlin unequivocally asserted that it won’t participate in Afghanistan’s affairs in any capacity, yet Moscow is ready to coordinate its actions with other countries. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone conversation with Chinese leader Xi Jinping "discussed the Afghan issue in detail," according to the Kremlin press service.
Vedomosti: Oil prices increase following Mexico fire, await Fed decisions
Oil prices are on the rise following a deadly blaze at Mexico’s Pemex offshore platform in the Gulf of Mexico, and are awaiting the Fed’s Friday meeting. On Wednesday, Brent oil was at $71.5 compared to $65 on Friday, August 20. During the previous two sessions, Brent rose 9%, and WTI increased 8.7%, a new high not seen since November 2020.
Over the weekend, a fire broke out on one of the oil rigs in the Ku-Maloob-Zaap oil field in the Gulf of Mexico killing five workers, and leaving two missing and six injured. Following the accident, Pemex halted production at 125 wells, thereby sending prices higher, and in the run-up to the Fed’s decisions decreased its production by 421,000 barrels per day, or 25% of its total output.
The opinions of analysts interviewed by the newspaper with regards to the impact of the accident on the oil market differ. Skolkovo Energy Center expert Ekaterina Grushevenko thinks that the accident affects the oil prices and a lot will depend on the information around the situation, the timeframe of repairing the equipment and getting back to previous production levels. She doesn’t think the price will surpass $75/barrel, although $80/barrel is also possible under appropriate market conditions.
Analyst at Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting Dmitry Pigarev concurs: "We have already seen the market reaction and the price increase above $70/barrel. Later prices will be influenced by the speed of the restoration of production," he noted. On the contrary, Managing Expert at PSB bank Ekaterina Krylova thinks that the accident was not the main cause of the price hike since, in her opinion, it is occurring in expectations of the upcoming symposium of the FRC in Jackson Hole on August 27. "It is rumored that the regulator, due to the threat of the spread of the coronavirus Delta strain, won’t shut down the stimulus measures," she noted. In her opinion, this is what is keeping the prices up.
At the same time, all analysts agreed that the accident won’t influence the OPEC+ decision on the parameters of reducing production at the September 1 meeting.
Vedomosti: Nord Stream 2 fails to challenge EU Gas Directive
Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 AG failed to dispute the decision by the German Federal Network Agency on the application of the renewed EU Gas Directive to this pipeline.
As Bloomberg reported on August 25, the Dusseldorf Higher Regional Court dismissed the operator’s claim.
A representative of Nord Stream 2 AG told the newspaper that the dismissal "demonstrates a discriminating influence" of the renewed EU Gas Directive and stressed that on May 23, 2019, when this document became effective, the pipeline hadn’t yet been completed but its financing was.
According to Raiffeisenbank’s Andrey Polishchuk, the decision of German authorities does not carry any substantial risks for Gazprom with regards to decreased volumes of deliveries to the EU, since it can supply additional volumes through other pipelines. Fitch’s Dmitry Marinchenko concurs, reiterating that until 2024 the company can deliver 40 bln cubic meters of gas annually through the Ukrainian gas transmission system, so the court decision won’t influence the company’s financial indicators and export potential.
According to Polishchuk, European consumers themselves, primarily German ones, are interested in the utmost use of the pipeline, since gas spot prices are rising and additional volumes of gas may contain this growth. However, Marinchenko warns that the decision of the German court will negatively impact the profits of Nord Stream 2 and may hinder the refinancing of its debt.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moscow and Minsk bargain on transit of Belarusian power
Minsk has announced another meeting between Presidents Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Vladimir Putin of Russia. Commenting on the possible agenda, political experts note the high uncertainty and mysteriousness in bilateral relations and have put forward contradictory predictions. Nevertheless, they all unanimously concur that some serious bargaining is underway.
The exact date of the meeting has not yet been set but it is possible that it will happen on Lukashenko’s birthday, August 30. This will be the fifth meeting of the two leaders. Political scientist Valery Karbalevich told the newspaper that officials don’t say anything about their positions so one can only guess with regards to the current state of Belarusian-Russian relations and the agenda of bilateral talks.
Political observer Alexander Klaskovsky thinks that the talks will involve the much-talked about integration roadmaps and after signing them Moscow will have more opportunities to raise issues of common currency and supranational governing bodies. He thinks that the gas price for Belarus will be the disputed issue at the signing. "I think that the Kremlin will try to push Lukashenko to sign the package," he told Euroradio. Another issue on the agenda, in his opinion, involves constitutional reforms, since Russia is supporting the version of a new constitution where Belarusian politics may be influenced through selected delegates.
Karbalevich concurs that constitutional reform will top the agenda. "I have the impression that this time Lukashenko is going to Moscow bringing the constitution draft for approval," he told the newspaper. "This is the fifth meeting already since the beginning of the year. And they talk for five hours. About what? About the roadmaps? That’s quite unlikely. I think the discussion involves something more serious and what can be more serious than the issue of power," the political guru explained.
He thinks that Moscow insists on Lukashenko completely withdrawing from power yet it wants to retain Belarus in its sphere of influence, while Lukashenko doesn’t want to leave and presents the possibility that Belarus might turn to the West in his absence as an argument to Putin. Considering the current geopolitical losses - Georgia, Moldova, - Russia accepts this argument so the allies need to resolve the main and complex issue, according to the expert.
Political scientist Pavel Usov expressed an opposing point of view. In his opinion, the subject of constitutional reform and the transit of power is not pressing for Moscow anymore. During a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin stressed that Belarus is in Russia’s sphere of influence and Moscow is completely satisfied with the situation in the republic. In his opinion, the main issue on the bilateral agenda is the integration of the two countries and Moscow expects Lukashenko to sign 28 integration items.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Banks to introduce new method of biometric identification of clients
Banks will identify clients by their palm prints. This is going to be a new option added to the unified biometric system, the press service of the Bank of Russia told the newspaper. Experts are talking about the high accuracy of this method but also point out its costliness.
The bank noted that the regulator views the palm print as a prospective addition to the existing methods of recognition through voice and face ID. "The veinprint will make it possible to remove barriers for biometric identification for people who have difficulties in conversation, including problems with hearing and speech for various reasons. This technology was tested and demonstrated high effectiveness," the bank stated, noting that the devices involved are not cheap.
Chairman of the board of the Financial Innovations association Roman Prokhorov noted that the veinprint identification has high authentication indicators. According to Nikolai Nashivochkin of Gazinformservis this may resolve the issues of information security.
According to head of the Financial Market Council Andrei Yemelin, the Bank of Russia’s decision seems right from the point of view of identifying people with disabilities but not easily implemented given today’s situation. "Currently, the unified biometric system has 180,000 biometric samples of Russians. If a new modality is introduced for all, then clients will have to submit biometric parameters again. And all 180,000 people will go to banks. It will be difficult to explain the necessity of this process to the majority of people." The expert thinks that it would be logical to introduce separate biometric identification for people with disabilities or use video identification when the biometric parameters are collected remotely.
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