Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Lukashenko, Putin to meet in Sochi
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on May 28. The events leading up to the visit have significantly weakened the position of the Belarusian leader, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports. Experts quizzed by the paper suggest that this shapes part of a Russian strategy aimed to force Belarus towards "deep integration."
The upcoming meeting will be the third one this year (with previous summits having been held on February 22 and April 22) and the fourth one since the August 2020 presidential election, which sparked the political crisis in Belarus. The real topics and results of the talks are likely to be different than what was actually discussed during those meetings, experts note, providing their own versions based on existing official statements, insider information, and the position of the participants of the meeting.
Officially, Moscow has expressed support for Lukashenko, refusing to let several European airlines bypass Belarus to enter Russia’s airspace. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Europe is acting "improperly" with regard to this incident. However, the rhetoric of the Russian media gives some experts reason to think that Moscow may be "betraying" Lukashenko, political analyst Vitaly Tsygankov said.
The fact that the Ryanair forced landing incident seemingly came at a perfect time — right before the EU summits and the meeting with Putin — caused some experts to say that it helps implement Moscow’s plan on forcing Lukashenko towards integration. Igor Tyshkevich, a Belarusian analyst, living in Ukraine, noted that there are two ways that the situation may unfold, both unpleasant to Lukashenko. "Russia is implementing the "Armenian scenario" — democracy wins with the Western collective approval of Russia’s final domination in Belarus. And the sale of this idea to the EU and the US," Tyshkevich wrote on a social network. "Or the transit format that Russia insisted upon is underway, with the norms it requires stipulated in the new Constitution from Lukashenko, and with Russia beginning to form part of key spheres of the Belarusian economy right now, without signing any political documents," the expert mused.
According to the expert community, among the topics of this fall’s discussion were ways to regulate the political crisis in Belarus, Russia’s financial aid, and deepened integration. Analysts suggest that Moscow is interested in transit of power in Belarus, an increase in Russian influence, and the appearance of a more "agreeable" and less toxic leader, preferably a pro-Russian one. However, the transit of power cannot come from protests, it needs to happen through constitutional reform, experts cited by the paper said. Supposedly, Minsk considers the current discussion of a future constitution and the plans of approving it on a referendum as something done for Russia and under Russia’s pressure. Lukashenko himself does not need any reforms, including a constitutional one, and neither do his opponents since they are not partaking in the discussion, the analysts conclude.
Kommersant: Border tensions between Armenia, Azerbaijan heating up again
The situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is escalating quickly. In the early hours of Thursday, the Azerbaijani military detained six Armenian servicemen for allegedly carrying out sabotage activities, Kommersant reports. Yerevan accused Baku of abduction on Armenian soil. Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that without outside intervention, the escalation could not be stopped. He suggested deploying observers from Russia or any other co-chair country of the OSCE Minsk Group to the border.
Pashinyan’s stance is not shared by all members of his government, with Armenian top diplomat Ara Ayvazyan resigning on Thursday evening. The official reasons for this move were not revealed. However, an informed Kommersant source in the Armenian government tied it to Pashinyan’s recent actions. Political analyst Armen Bagdasarian stated: "Pashinyan is turning his ministers into scapegoats, he gives them no leeway to act, but, in the event of a failure, he pins all the blame on them."
Bagdasarian does not think that Armenia’s complaints about the swiftness of the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) response and its plans to address the UN Security Council are intended to stir up anti-Russian sentiments in the country. "This is their desire to somehow influence the CSTO so that it starts to act," the expert told Kommersant, adding that such a tactic is unlikely to work.
In any case, Moscow is likely to be the one actually regulating the current escalation. Armenian Acting Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan visited Moscow on Thursday. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko held a phone call with Toivo Claar, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus. "The Russian side has reaffirmed its call to the parties to resolve all existing issues peacefully via negotiations. Russia is ready to continue aiding this process in every possible way," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
It is hard to say so far what compromise Yerevan and Baku can reach during the negotiations, the newspaper notes.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Egypt embarks on mediating between Israel and Hamas
Egypt has invited representatives of Israel and Hamas to directly negotiate a settlement to the situation in the Gaza Strip. The dialogue is expected to take place next week. Despite the formal ceasefire announcement, both sides continue to have mutual claims, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports. Egypt is interested in organizing this meeting not only due to its traditional role as mediator: Cairo is interested in gaining the support of the Biden administration, which places a special focus on human rights as one of the hallmarks for good relations.
The aim of the meeting is to reach an understanding of a sustainable ceasefire and to agree on ways to assist the Gaza Strip, as reported by Israel’s Army Radio. Some US representatives are likely to join the talks. Shortly before that, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Egypt during his Middle East tour, where he was presented with a draft for a long-term truce between Palestinians and Israelis. So, this is not just about Gaza.
"By achieving another ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Egypt has once again proven that there is no alternative to its mediation efforts," Ksenia Svetlova, an expert of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "I think it is more obvious now than ever that Egypt has all the means to influence the situation," she said, adding that Cairo is a mediator that has established good contact with both sides. "Perhaps its contacts with Israel are even better than with Hamas." There are not many influential mediators of the situation regarding the Gaza Strip, the expert stressed.
"Due to this, Egypt, in my opinion, has always been and will always be a mediator to regulate issues between Israel and Gaza," Svetlova insisted. "Besides, this overlaps with Egypt’s attempt to gain additional points with the White House. It is clear that the new administration is resetting its relations with Palestine, first and foremost, with the Palestinian Authority, and it is likely to be seeking settlement options. Naturally, Egypt sees itself as a central player in this process. Perhaps, this will somehow help Egypt distance itself from any human rights violation issues. This was a central factor in Biden’s agenda, and Cairo was seriously concerned about that."
It is not ruled out that Egypt’s mediation, along with other steps taken by Cairo, for example, when it comes to prisoners, will gain the favor of the White House, the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: What awaits Russia’s arms industry under conditions of sanctions
On May 27, a three-day series of closed sessions on defense industry issues and the state defense order held under the chairmanship of Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded in Sochi. Such meetings are traditionally held once every six months, and their contents are not publicly disclosed. Vedomosti quizzed its sources in the industry for details.
The May 25 session was dedicated to analyzing the promising arms systems and to determining the ones that will form the basis for preparing a new state weapon program until 2034, Putin said during an open episode of the meeting. According to a source close to the Defense Ministry, this program will be fully developed over the coming two years and approved in late 2023 until 2034. It will replace the existing weapons program active from 2018 to 2027.
The second session on May 26 was dedicated to the current tasks on the agenda of the state defense order. Putin noted that the construction and modernization of 20 surface ships of the offshore maritime zone and the supply of 145 new and modernized planes to the Aerospace Forces must be completed within the existing deadlines. Another Vedomosti source in the defense industry said that this concerns the planned supply of naval equipment and jets for 2021.
Finally, the May 27 session was dedicated to the development and production of long-range high-precision weapons and military-transport aviation. According to Putin, it is necessary to determine the production volume of these weapons and to check whether the industry is ready for their manufacture. Regarding military-transport aviation, the president revealed that the state tests of a light military transport aircraft Il-112V are coming to a close, and in 2021, two Il-112V are planned to be supplied. Besides, five Il-76MD-90A military transport planes should be handed over to the armed forces by the end of the year. A source in the aviation industry noted that it would be very difficult to implement these plans, as the Il-112V tests resumed only in spring after a two-year break, and just one out of five Il-76MD-90A planes have been commissioned so far.
Military expert Viktor Murakhovsky pointed out that the main topic of the sessions was the discussion of the right priorities when it comes to weapon purchases and their supply under the conditions of economic restrictions, increasing sanctions pressure, and emerging military threats.
Izvestia: Russia plans to create a united cybercrime database
Russia plans to establish a united cybercrime database, Izvestia reports, noting that this initiative was supported by the Russian Ministry of Finance. The newspaper cites a letter by Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev addressed to Georgy Luntovsky, head of the Association of Banks of Russia (ABR).
The newspaper reports that according to the data provided by the Bank of Russia, the number of transactions carried out without the approval of clients reached about 773,000 in 2020, which is about 30% higher than the year before. According to the Russian Interior Ministry, the number of crimes committed with the use of plastic cards reached 190,200 in 2020, which is 5.5 times higher than the previous year’s figures. The Russian Criminal Code includes separate offenses related to the theft of funds. The letter of the Finance Ministry notes that this includes bank fraud, fraud with the use of one’s official position, fraud with the use of electronic payment means, and so on.
The document points out that the crimes may be categorized as different offenses, which affects the cybercrime statistics and creates difficulties in the legal sphere. Due to this, the Finance Ministry suggests establishing a united approach to forming cybercrime statistics and estimating the damage caused by such crimes. One or several ministries are likely to be tasked with setting up this database. The letter notes that a united approach to statistical data will help create methods tp counteract the perpetrators more effectively.
ABR Vice President Yana Epifanova said that united and transparent statistics help to find the pressure points and develop the necessary measures, as well as to estimate the efficiency of certain means of fighting cybercrime. She added that the ABR plans to compile the data provided by the Bank of Russia and the Interior Ministry in a united system that would include different types of crimes and the damage caused by these offenses.
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