MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The reaction of Russia’s economy and the ruble exchange rate to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will primarily depend on the duration of its active phase and the extent of other countries’ involvement, Anton Tabakh, chief economist at rating agency Expert RA, told TASS.
"It is not yet possible to say how the economy or the ruble will react. This depends on the duration of the active phase of the conflict, who else will be drawn in or step out, how fully the Strait of Hormuz will be closed, and whether there will be asymmetric responses," Tabakh commented.
Stock market indices and prices (including oil) may react immediately, but the economy is characterized by inertia, Tabakh noted. The effect of a price surge or a narrowing of discounts on Russian oil could be either short-term (a few days or weeks) or prolonged if the conflict drags on or if risks to shipping in the Persian Gulf emerge.
In conditions of high uncertainty, one can only speak of a general increase in risks, the expert emphasized. Such a situation is generally unfavorable for the global economy and for prices of Russian exports, with the exception of oil and gold, he concluded.
The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. At the same time, US leadership openly called on the Iranian population to rise up against their government and seize power.
As a result of the strikes, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other senior figures in the leadership of the Islamic Republic were killed.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also hit.