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Norilsk Nickel expects a surplus of 150,000 tons on nickel market in 2024-2025

The company noted that in 2024, the global nickel market recorded the third consecutive year of oversupply

MOSCOW, December 10. /TASS/. Norilsk Nickel expects that in 2024-2025 the nickel market will maintain a surplus of 150,000 tons of metal, which will be in the high-grade nickel segment, according to the fourteenth review of the nickel, copper and platinum group metals markets, prepared by the company.

"In 2024-2025, the nickel market is expected to maintain a surplus of around 150 kt Ni, which will be mainly concentrated in the high-grade nickel sector. The commissioning of new capacities in Indonesia for the whole gamut of nickel products, including NPI, NPI-made matte, MHP from HPAL processing, nickel sulphate and Class 1, coupled with new Class 1 capacity additions in China, will be accompanied by a relatively similar increase in nickel use in general with more robust growth in stainless, alloys and special steel sectors as well as a more mature growth in the EV batteries," the document says.

The company noted that in 2024, the global nickel market recorded the third consecutive year of oversupply. This surplus was driven by the high-grade nickel sector, as exchange stocks of the metal have grown by more than 100,000 tons since the beginning of the year.

The company attributes this mainly to the influx of cathode nickel from China, produced at recently launched capacities. At the same time, taking into account other over-the-counter stocks, the actual growth of all nickel stocks in 2024 may amount to 150,000 tons, and similar volumes are likely to be accumulated in 2025, which will lead to another year of market surplus, the review says.

Norilsk Nickel notes that about 40% of all nickel producers are unprofitable at the current price, since the rapid growth of supply in Indonesia negatively affects projects with high production costs in other regions, which may further positively affect the price of nickel. However, given the production risks in Indonesia and restrictions in other countries, nickel production may potentially be lower than the company's expectations, while consistently high demand from the stainless steel and alloys sector may lead to even greater consumption of nickel, as a result of which the market may move into a state of balance.

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