ALMA-ATA, June 13. /TASS/. US sanctions against the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) will not seriously affect relations between Russia and Kazakhstan, which is the largest trading partner of the Russian Federation, Arman Beisembayev, Kazakh financial analyst, told TASS.
"I don’t think this will seriously affect relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan, but many related problems will definitely appear," Beisembayev said.
According to him, the parties will have to resolve problems associated with the dependence of the tenge exchange rate on the ruble, as well as with the presence of MOEX among the shareholders of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE).
The Moscow Exchange holds a 13% stake in the Kazakhstan exchange. Before February 2022, the Moscow Exchange planned to increase this share with subsequent plans to synchronize stock exchanges with the ultimate goal of creating and developing a single stock market throughout the Eurasian Economic Union on the basis of the Russian financial market, the expert explained.
After February 2022, "these processes were actually frozen and now these plans are in question," Beisembayev said adding that the management will have to consider how safe it is to keep the Moscow Exchange among the shareholders of KASE.
"There is a possibility that the Kazakh side will try to buy out its share," Beisembayev believes.
As the second problem the expert mentioned "the dependence of the tenge exchange rate on the ruble, since the Russian Federation is the largest trading partner of the Republic of Kazakhstan."
According to the expert, "sanctions are pushing the quoting of the ruble to over-the-counter platforms, and in the future, manual management of the exchange rate by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as was the case before 2015, raises the question of maintaining both the market exchange rate regime and the free convertibility of the currency."
"This already gives rise to the problem of the adequacy of the ratio of the ruble and tenge exchange rates. Probably, here it will be necessary to develop some other mechanism for setting the exchange rate," the Kazakh expert believes.
In his opinion, Kazakhstan will also have to solve problems with clearing in the foreign exchange market and with access to it by Russian residents, as well as with "the leakage of currency to Russia due to the high probability of the emergence of a gray and black market for cash currency."
New US sanctions
On June 12, the US Treasury imposed sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and the National Clearing Center, part of the Moscow Exchange group. In this regard, the Moscow Exchange announced that from June 13 it will suspend trading in the dollar and euro.
The Bank of Russia announced that citizens and companies can buy and sell dollars and euros, despite sanctions. The regulator will use bank reports and information from over-the-counter trading to determine the dollar and euro exchange rates to the ruble.