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Key rate reduction steps to depend on inflation risks — Central Bank chief

A sharp rise in the key rate in August 2023 "was due to the necessity to neutralize risks of accelerating inflation pressure," Elvira Nabiullina noted

MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. The key rate reduction steps will depend on inflation risks, in particular, Governor of Russia’s Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said.

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Bank of Russia retains key rate at 16% per annum

"In the current situation, as the issue is about gradual cooling of inflation following overheated demand, not about quick slowdown of inflation as was the case after a sharp rise in prices in 2014 and 2022, we believe that it is most probable that the key rate will be reduced in gradual steps, more gradually," she told a press conference after the regulator’s board meeting, adding that "the steps will be defined by data on the speed of inflation slowdown, on inflation expectations, on inflation risks."

A sharp rise in the key rate in August 2023 "was due to the necessity to neutralize risks of accelerating inflation pressure," Nabiullina noted.

Earlier on Friday the Bank of Russia decided to maintain the key rate at 16% per annum at its first meeting in 2024, indicating that it is too early to judge the sustainability of the emerging disinflationary trends. Current inflationary pressures have eased compared with the autumn months but remain high, domestic demand is still outstripping the capabilities to expand the production of goods and services, the regulator said, adding that a judgement on the sustainable nature of emerging disinflationary trends would be premature. The Bank of Russia’s monetary policy is set to solidify disinflation processes unfolding in the national economy, the regulator added.

At the same time, the Central Bank raised its forecast for the average key rate for 2024 from 12.5-14.5% to 13.5-15.5%. In 2025, the rate is expected to be 8-10%, against the previous forecast of 7-9%, the forecast for 2026 reached 6-7%.

The Bank of Russia will hold its next key rate review meeting on March 22, 2024.

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