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Bank of Russia expects sanctions to remain in force until 2027

The regulator noted that the base scenario does not assume a significant change in geopolitical conditions until the end of the forecast horizon

MOSCOW, November 7. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia's base scenario of economic development for 2024 and the period 2025-2026 assumes that sanctions imposed against Russia will remain in force, the regulator said in its monetary policy report.

"The basic scenario does not assume any significant change in geopolitical conditions before the end of the forecasting horizon. The introduced external restrictions on Russia's exports, imports, investments and technological cooperation will remain in place in the medium term," the regulator said.

The Bank of Russia also estimated Russia's GDP growth in the Q3 at 5.1% in annual terms. According to the report, in the Q4 the Bank of Russia expects GDP growth to slow down to 1.5% in annual terms.

"GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded forecasts, according to our projections and current data on economic activity. The main driver was investment demand, which was fueled mostly by government spending," Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina was quoted in the report.

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account actual data for the first half of the year and operational indicators for the Q3, the GDP growth rate in 2023 will be 2.2-2.7%. In 2024-2025 growth rates will be more moderate. In 2026, the Russian economy will return to a trajectory of balanced growth of 1.5-2.5%.

The regulator noted it has effective tools to reduce inflation to the target of 4%, and will be ready to raise the key rate for this purpose. "The Bank of Russia has effective tools for reducing inflation towards the target. At recent meetings, we raised the key rate with tangible steps and will be ready to do this again if we do not see signs of a sustainable slowdown in inflation and cooling of inflation expectations," Nabiullina said in a report.

According to Nabiullina, there is currently inflation due to an internal supply and demand imbalance. Demand is increasing, but supply growth is constrained, hence price growth is escalating.

She also recalled that the Bank if Russia raised the trajectory of the key rate for 2023 to 15-15.2% in its new projection, and that the average rate for next year will be 12.5-14.5%.

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