MOSCOW, October 12. /TASS/. Alexander Makarov, a geomorphologist, the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute's Director, speaks about whether the ice will remain in the Arctic by 2050, and how this may affect navigation in the Arctic Ocean as well as the life on the coast:
Global climate change is a well-known and universally observed fact that cannot be ignored regardless of its causes. Nowadays, this is a given fact where it is necessary to be ahead of the process - to make forecasts, models, to predict changes, and to see the future. For Russia, where 20% of territory is beyond the Arctic Circle, the Arctic plays a key role in these processes.
The Arctic is getting warmer, the ice is shrinking, and currents are changing. Over recent 50 years, the amount of summer ice in the region has decreased by about 2.7 million square kilometers, which is comparable to the area of Greenland. The winter ice area has decreased by about 700,000 square kilometers. Minimum amounts of ice were observed in 2007, 2012, 2018 and 2019. The trend is indicative, and some may think the Arctic is steadily losing ice and soon will have ice-free waters and tropical fruits will be growing on its coasts. But no, they won't.
When talking about the ice reduction, scientists first of all refer to the summer period. The Arctic summer continues for ten weeks only. Beyond summer, the Arctic seas are covered with ice, and in the next 30 years, according to our estimations, the ice situation will remain at about the present level. Some years may have a little more or a little less ice. Perhaps by the middle of the century, in the summer months, the Arctic may become ice-free, but the winter ice will remain anyway.
The less ice, the better for shipping?
The Arctic sea ice and its conditions are of top importance for navigation in that region. I must stress here that less ice does not mean easier. The number of dangerous and unexpected ice phenomena has been growing, and thus grows the importance of hydrometeorological information. Without high-quality ice forecasts, it would be impossible to ensure safe and commercially reasonable year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). With less ice, the situation in the Arctic becomes more volatile and unpredictable.
Therefore, forecasts are important both for businesses that seek to save on logistics, and for the state for which the project is strategically significant. The Northern Sea Route will be developing, and I am confident the development will be rather quick. Government and corporate investments in it are huge. In the long term, NSR may change the entire global transport and logistics chain. We, as scientists, in this project see our task in providing highly accurate and operational forecasts. The project's success will largely depend on our work.
If we compare the Western and Eastern Arctic in the direction towards Asia, it is the Eastern Sector where most difficult ice conditions develop. No regular navigation has been there, and thus we must refine our models and forecasts, work on efficiency, and this is what we have been doing 24/7. We are building up our forecasting capabilities and, along with the use of icebreakers, this infrastructure, without any doubt, will be able to become a commercial project.
Big Arctic Data
The forecasting system is automated - by using computers we can process large volumes of satellite data and select the most informative indicators in atmospheric pressure, in air and water temperatures, in ice indicators. Long-term Big Data ice forecasts' reliability is about 85% and it is not inferior to foreign ice services' rates. Short-term, 5-day, forecasts of ice distribution and drift are 93% accurate.
The basis for our work is the North Automatic Ice Information System.
It monitors ice and hydrometeorological conditions in the Arctic Ocean. It receives information from data centers on the Arctic coast, for example, in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Tiksi, Pevek, as well as from satellites and automatic meteorological buoys drifting on the Arctic Ocean ice. Our system is not static, we are upgrading it, and as economic activities in the Arctic are developing, we will introduce new technological solutions.
Northern Sea Route: money and ecology
As for the Northern Sea Route's economic efficiency, you can hear different assessments, including skeptical ones. It's only easy to be skeptical and to warn against risks. Of course, it is not realistic to implement everything perfectly well from the first time, this is utopia.
The scale and complexity of this task are incredible. But the project will be launched, the processes will be improved, and the mechanism of sailing along the route will be specified to the smallest aspect. We will be able to maintain the necessary commercial speed, which presently is about 10 knots, and we will learn to use most effectively both icebreakers and ice-class vessels.
Besides commercial concerns, many express doubts about the environmental safety in the Arctic. Minimizing these threats is a key aspect of developing the Northern Sea Route's infrastructures. The Arctic is unique and fragile. It must be not only used, but also preserved with care.
Russia has been working on a system to monitor and assess regularly NSR's water area ecology. The Ministry of Natural Resources, Roshydromet (the national hydrometeorology authority), the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute and other organizations have been working on details of that program. They will develop a state system to monitor the ecological conditions of the Northern Sea Route water area. Data on the natural environment will be collected and accumulated regularly. This task requires a complex of field observations directly in the Arctic. By doing so, we will be able to see the dynamics of changes and will be able to adjust all processes accordingly.
The natural environment in high latitudes is top sensitive to any influences. If we take climate warming, then in the Arctic the warming is about twice as fast as elsewhere on the planet, and in some areas even three to four times faster. A simple example: if you drive an ATV through the tundra in summer, when the soil is soft of melting, the remaining track will stay there for 25-30 years. For more than a quarter of a century, the nature will be levelling up this impact.
Therefore, it is already important to pay close attention to development and implementation of an effective system to monitor the natural environment. With the support from the government, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Federal Hydrometeorological Service, I am sure, this system will be created. We are ready to start this work as early as next year.
(Never) perennially frozen ground
The sea ice melting is not the only complex process in the Arctic. At coastal locations our scientists have been monitoring very closely the permafrost degradation in the Russian Federation's Arctic regions. The melting of frozen soils affects residential, industrial and infrastructure facilities. But first of all, the process concerns the population. The quality of life depends directly on how the permafrost will develop. What will happen to their homes, schools and kindergartens, whether they will be able to use roads - this affects the accessibility of territories.
Estimates of the damage from the melting permafrost vary, but those anyway are unbelievable figures - from 3 to 7 trillion rubles ($31-72 billion). The permafrost area is huge - it takes two thirds of the country.
What can scientists do here? We have developed and started creating a background monitoring system that covers the entire area of perennially frozen soils. The system includes 140 observation points not only in the Arctic, but also much further south, up to Baikal, Irkutsk and Altai. The observation points will be organized at Roshydromet's existing weather stations, thus cutting the costs significantly. In less than three years, we will get a comprehensive image of the country's permafrost conditions.
We will use the data to identify the most actively degrading areas that will require close attention and efforts to prevent any negative consequences.
The next stage will focus on the geotechnical monitoring of buildings and structures. But this is a separate issue to be addressed by experts in that field. More precise and sophisticated permafrost monitoring systems must be developed at regional levels. Businesses have been doing a lot in this direction. For example, the Norilsk Nickel Company (we are in good contact with them regarding the permafrost studies) has launched its excellent geophysical monitoring system. Regions follow suit - the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Region has been paying great attention to the permafrost monitoring.
In this project, once again, we are pioneers in a positive sense. We have found an approach to solving a complex issue that is clear to everyone, not only to us - scientists, but also to businesses and regional authorities. It is important to stress that the project has been launched, we have been to the fields, have started the work, and further on the system may be upgraded and improved. We plan to make 20 wells this year, and about another 60 in each of the two following years.
Cooperation between science and businesses for the Arctic benefit
Quite often businesses imagine scientists as the elders in an ivory tower, or as annoying fund applicants. Scientists have always prevailed in the Arctic. Nowadays, that we are searching for answers to the challenges of warming in the region, we can and should be moderators, liaisons between businesses and authorities. Not just to attend economic forums organized by leading companies or the state, but also to hold own events.
This year, we have organized the first POLAR scientific and business forum, timed to coincide with the Polar Explorer's Day in May. We developed the idea of a discussion platform at the intersection of businesses and science for three years, but because of the pandemic, we were able to implement it only now. The event's purpose is to hear requests from businesses, to find relevant areas for cooperation. We were surprised to see the active interest from leading companies operating in the Arctic, even despite the rather specific topic - everything around changes in ice conditions and the Arctic climate. The event featured more than 500 specialists - it's an extremely successful result, in my opinion. However, we look at this event much more broadly, and we will develop it. We may combine natural science with social and humanitarian disciplines. This will become a separate focus in the future. The forum will have fresh topics every year. Our plan is to focus on the Arctic in odd years, and add the Antarctic in even years. Moreover, we have planned an important event for next year - we will test a new wintering complex at the Vostok station.
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