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Bank of Russia to return key rate to long-term neutral range of 5.5-6.5% by 2026

The Bank of Russia raised its estimate of the Russian economy's long-term real neutral interest rate by 0.5 percentage point in July, to 1.5-2.5% per annum

MOSCOW, August 11. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia will return the key rate to a long-term neutral range of 5.5-6.5% by 2026, the regulator said on Friday.

"In the baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia forecasts the annual average key rate in the range of 7.9-8.3% per annum in 2023, 8.5-9.5% in 2024, 6.5-8.5% in 2025 By 2026, the Bank of Russia will return the key rate to a long-term neutral range, which it estimates at 5.5-6.5% per annum," the statement said.

The Bank of Russia raised its estimate of the Russian economy's long-term real neutral interest rate by 0.5 percentage point in July, to 1.5-2.5% per annum. "With the inflation target close to 4% and inflation expectations close to the target, this corresponds to a nominal neutral interest rate of 5.5-6.5% per annum," the regulator said.

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