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Annual inflation in Russia to speed up in summer — Central Bank’s department head

Annual inflation will most likely exceed 4% as early as in Q3, Director of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Department Kirill Tremasov said

ST. PETERSBURG, May 29. /TASS/. Annual inflation in Russia may start rising as early as in May and speed up in the summer, with its rate potentially exceeding 4% in the third quarter of this year, Director of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Department Kirill Tremasov told a press conference on Monday.

"Annual inflation will mostly likely start rising as early as in May, whereas in the summer this upward movement <…> may even speed up. Annual inflation will most likely exceed 4% as early as in Q3. Our inflation forecast is 4.5-6.5% for yearend and 4% for next year," he said.

In late April the Bank of Russia downgraded its outlook on annual inflation for 2023 from 5-7% to 4.5-6.5% whereas 2024 outlook remained intact at 4%. Annual inflation is down significantly from the high base, the regulator said, adding that it was 3.5% in March (after 11% in February) and 2.5% as of April 24. Annual inflation is expected to temporarily remain below 4% in the coming months under the influence of last year’s high base effect, the Central Bank said, adding that it also forecasted that it will begin to grow gradually in the second half of 2023 as the low values of monthly price increases of summer 2022 exit calculations and the moderate levels of sustained inflation expand.

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