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Sudden devaluation of the ruble unlikely in February, say experts

Some analysts do not rule out that the ruble will become the leader in terms of strengthening among developing countries’ currencies

© Stanislav Krasilnikov/TASS

MOSCOW, February 4. /TASS/. Russia’s national currency will maintain a moderate downtrend in February, experts interviewed by TASS suggest. They do not expect a sudden devaluation of the ruble though.

"Currently we believe that the ‘virus’ threat has not yet reached the scale of pressure able to lead to a mass capital outflow from developing markets, and particularly from ruble assets, whose sales could trigger a greater devaluation of 65-67 rubles per dollar," BCS Premier’s chief analyst Anton Pokatovich said.

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Moreover, Russia’s Central Bank may come up with another key rate reduction at the next meeting on February 7, which will protect assets in rubles from larger sales to an extent. "If market sentiment manages not to surrender to panic the exchange rate of the ruble will stay within the range of 62.5-64.7 rubles per dollar," the expert added.

According to Freedom Finance’s Alexander Osin, the exchange rate of the Russian currency is currently supported by the sustainable policy of OPEC+ oil-exporting nations in the oil and gas segment.

"The market may receive the information about the rescheduled OPEC session from March to February in coming days, which was announced by the Algerian Energy Ministry last week. Amid this background, there are overwhelming odds that the ruble's exchange rate will rise against the dollar in coming weeks," he said, adding that the targeted range by the end of February is 62.45-63.8 rubles per dollar.

Nordea Markets’ analysts do not rule out that the ruble will become the leader in terms of strengthening among developing countries’ currencies as it recovers after a strong drop in the past two weeks in case the situation with the coronavirus-induced pneumonia stabilizes.

The falling investor demand for developing states’ assets against the background of concerns about China coronavirus spread-related developments negatively affects the ruble in the short term, Director, Russia & CIS Economist at Renaissance Capital, Sofya Donets, explained. Moreover, the declining energy demand is putting pressure on the ruble as well, she added.

The mass devaluation risks may soar if crude oil futures steadily move towards the $50 per barrel level and lower, Anton Pokatovich noted. However, given the current fundamentals of the crude market, there remain chances that oil prices will recover to the $60 level in the spring and exhibit a further uptrend, he added.

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