NOVOSIBIRSK, September 27. /TASS/. The outbreak of a major coronavirus pandemic, similar to that which shut down much of the world in 2020-2022, may be possible only after the generation with immunity departs the scene, with the pandemic-free period lasting about 30 years, Valery Loktev, head of the Molecular Biology Department at the Vector State Research Center, said.
Earlier, Russia’s federal anti-coronavirus crisis center said that the incidence of COVID across the country has grown by 22.3% over the past week, while the number of hospitalizations has risen by 18%. An increased number of COVID hospitalizations has been noted in 47 Russian regions, while the incidence of the virus surged across 74 out of Russia’s 89 regions.
"Most likely, new serious coronavirus pandemics will emerge when this generation with immunity dies off. <...> That is, major pandemics were occurring following a rather lengthy period of several decades, but there is one complicating circumstance because the first coronavirus outbreak [occurred in] 2003 and [the next one was in] 2020. There are 17 years in between. Yet there was no large-scale outbreak in 2003 so now, I think, we have about 30 years of normal life," he told TASS on the sidelines of the Openbio forum.
The researcher explained that usually the period between pandemics equals half of a human lifespan, and with the flu virus, this period amounts to 57 years. The scientist added that currently the coronavirus infection is considered to be seasonal.
Earlier, Loktev said that a high incidence of COVID-19 in Russia during the current epidemiological season is unlikely because the majority of residents are immune, having already had the infection.
A global public health emergency due to the coronavirus infection was in effect from late January 2020 until May 2023. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic.