MOSCOW, September 25. /TASS/. Armenia will not withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), regardless of what its authorities say about the ineffectiveness of such structures against the background of the events in Karabakh.
Armenia's exit would mean Moscow rethinking the whole of Armenian-Russian relations, and Yerevan is not ready to pay the price, polled experts have told TASS.
After what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on September 24 that he considered the security organizations his country was affiliated with to be ineffective. Public opinion in Armenia has become quite polarized, so much so that some have started calling for complete withdrawal from the CSTO.
Andrey Bystritsky, the board chairman of the Foundation for the Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, nevertheless sees this scenario as unlikely.
"I would not overestimate the likelihood of an exit. Now, on the wave of emotions over the events in Nagorno-Karabakh, there has been some speculation of this kind, but I would prefer to treat it as just that, speculation," he said. "From my point of view, the probability of any radical steps is slim, because the consequences are hard to predict and they could be quite dire for an Armenian society which is not very rich," he said.
Consequences of exit
The expert noted how much Russia does for Armenia, including in the sphere of security, economy and humanitarian ties. All this will be jeopardized, if the Armenian leadership decides to leave the CSTO. "Does it make sense for Yerevan to go for de facto severing of relations or a steep decline in their quality? I think not," Bystritsky concluded.
Stanislav Pritchin, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for Post-Soviet Studies, agrees that this "major issue" is bound to cost Armenia dearly.
"Perhaps, they will change their tune. Every member of the CSTO is also a member of the EAEU. This is a kind of safety net for the Eurasian Economic Union’s member-states. If Armenia withdraws from the CSTO, the big question will be how this affects its relations, including those with Russia on bilateral tracks," the analyst emphasized. "At the political level the idea of exit can be played with, but actually going forward with this process could seriously complicate the socio-economic situation. A vast complex of Russia's relations with Armenia is at stake."
Premature expectations
Pritchin also warned against jumping to any hasty conclusions that there may follow a rapprochement between Yerevan and Washington on the background of Karabakh.
"These are premature expectations. True, we may be hearing messages and plans voiced by the Armenian leadership personally, but the reality on the ground is somewhat different," Pritchin emphasized. "In terms of global infrastructure and geopolitics, Armenia has no direct border with any Western players who could really act as guarantors of its security, so, for the most part, such theories remain purely hypothetical."
The expert dismissed speculations about Armenia's possible accession to NATO as even more far-fetched. He emphasized that Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, "will try either to block any steps" in this direction, "or to get some serious concessions" from Yerevan. "Whether Armenia will be ready for this is anyone’s guess," he concluded.
Non-alternative power
The director of the Center for Islamic Studies of the Caucasus, Shota Abkhaidze, has called Pashinyan's future prospects no less complicated in the context of the events around Karabakh. According to the analyst, the Armenian prime minister will "be trying to the bitter end to stay in power," despite the fact that both Armenian citizens and traditional partners are unhappy with him. "Pashinyan is a scapegoat. He is viewed very negatively by the Armenian population, and it is hard to say if he will be able to save his image. Throw in the opposition's grievances and the Kremlin's discontent. Moscow openly opposes Pashinyan and criticizes him. He is being rebuked for double dealing and for leaning on the West too much. I think it will be very difficult for him to stay in power," Abkhaidze believes.
The way he sees it, Pashinyan remains in office mainly because the opposition now has no real alternative, while those "leaders who ruled before Pashinyan were bogged down in corruption" and hopelessly discredited in the eyes of the people no less than Pashinyan himself. "The opposition has no leader now. If there were one, he would have already led the anti-Pashinyan protests and the people to follow him. There is no such personality at the moment," he noted. "But that no new leader is in sight now does not mean that such a person will not appear."
Situation in Karabakh
On September 19, tensions flared up again in Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku announced it was launching what it described as "local anti-terrorist measures" and demanded the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the region. Yerevan, in turn, said there were no Armenian forces in Karabakh, calling what was happening "an act of large-scale aggression." Residents of the Armenian capital took to the streets to protest outside the Armenian government building, blaming the country’s leadership and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the situation.
Russia called on the conflicting sides to prevent civilian casualties and return to a diplomatic solution. On September 20, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry announced that an agreement had been reached in coordination with the Russian peacekeeping contingent to suspend the anti-terrorist operation in Nagorno-Karabakh as of 12:00 p.m. Moscow time. On September 21, representatives of Baku and the Armenian population of Karabakh met in the Azerbaijani city of Yevlakh "to discuss reintegration issues."