MOSCOW, August 8. /TASS/. The military contingent of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries, even a very sizable one, will be unable to achieve its goals quickly and overpower Niger and its allies due to their inferior combat capabilities, Alexander Shipilov, researcher at the Institute of General History of the Russian Academy of Sciences, senior lecturer at the Department of Theory and History of International Relations at the People’s Friendship University of Russia has told TASS.
Earlier, the RFI radio station reported that the ECOWAS might delegate up to 25,000 troops for a possible invasion of Niger in order to restore the country's President Mohamed Bazoum to power. The report said that the ECOWAS military leadership’s plans envisage a force of 25,000 troops, with "the largest contingent to be sent by Nigeria."
"This does not at all mean that this group will be effective, even though 20,000-25,000 is quite impressive by regional standards," Shipilov pointed out. "To a large extent, discipline in such units is lax. Very often such peacekeepers can participate in robbery against the peaceful local population due to rather low salaries. Their overall combat effectiveness is not always very high."
In the meantime, as the expert noted, Niger’s armed forces are considered quite adapted to warfare in the Sahel and desert region.
"If ECOWAS does go for armed intervention, the chances that it will not be an easy and quick victory are quite high. There is a risk that it will turn into a more protracted conflict, given the position of Mali and Burkina Faso," the expert emphasized.
Shipilov believes that ECOWAS has a different kind of leverage over Niger not related to military intervention.
"The very same economic sanctions. In the long run they may be more effective than direct military intervention and, in fact, less costly for ECOWAS," he noted.
Possible response
The analyst avoided mentioning specific figures about what kind of force Niger along with its allies might use to counter the ECOWAS contingent in the event of intervention, but indicated that it would be "smaller in strength."
"Also, Mali, Burkina Faso and the Armed Forces of Niger need to continue to deal with the jihadists and the Tuaregs. I think they will be able to mobilize a much smaller force. I would probably not risk giving a specific figure," Shipilov said.
"On the other hand, their combat capability, in my opinion, may be higher than that of Nigeria’s soldiers," the specialist continued. "Nigeria has been fighting against Boko Haram jihadists in the north of its own country for quite a long time. So far this fight has not led to any definitive success. This is due, among other things, to the less than high combat effectiveness of the Nigerian armed forces".
On the situation in Niger
On July 26, military rebels in Niger announced the removal of President Mohamed Bazoum, the closure of national borders, the introduction of a curfew and the suspension of the constitution, as well as a ban on political parties. The National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie, CNSP) was formed to govern the country and was headed by General Abdurahmane Tchiani on July 28. Meanwhile, according to Nigerien politicians, President Bazoum is "in good health" and has been in telephone contact with leaders and representatives of other countries, but is not being allowed to leave his residence.
On July 30, the leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued an ultimatum, demanding that the rebels immediately release and reinstate Bazoum and restore constitutional order in the country. On August 4, the militaries of ECOWAS member states announced that they had drawn up a contingency plan for intervention in Niger at an emergency meeting. The ECOWAS ultimatum expired on August 7.
However, Al Arabiya TV channel, quoting a statement from the regional organization's defense ministers, reported that the ECOWAS military leadership had recognized the inadvisability of using force against Niger, but decided to increase sanction pressure to force the rebels to release Bazoum.