MOSCOW, August 17. /TASS/. Both Russia and the United States are exploring alternative grain export routes to replace the now-defunct Black Sea Grain Initiative; Washington is attempting to form an anti-China alliance with Japan and South Korea; and Russian exporters are voluntarily selling over 80% of their forex earnings even without a government mandate. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Russia working on alternative to replace defunct Black Sea grain deal
Russian Ambassador to Turkey Alexey Yerkhov said in an interview with the IHA news agency on August 16 that Russia is working on alternatives to the now-defunct Black Sea grain deal for sending food to countries in need. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Washington was also talking with Kiev and other interested countries, notably Turkey, to establish alternate routes for supplies of Ukrainian grain to global markets. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, however, alternate routes for Ukrainian grain supplies may not be enough to replace the Black Sea project.
The Wall Street Journal reported on August 15 that Washington is in negotiations with Turkey, Ukraine, and other countries in Eastern Europe to develop an alternate route for transporting Ukrainian grain via the Danube River and over the Black Sea to adjacent ports in Romania, and then on to other destinations.
According to Vladimir Bruter, an analyst at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, the US plan to provide alternate routes for supplying Ukrainian grain is merely political PR and will not replace the Black Sea project. "Transport infrastructure and granaries in Eastern European countries are not designed for high volumes of transit traffic. Overload [modes of transportation] cause problems for European companies operating in the import-export area," the expert said.
As a result, the expert believes that the relevant Eastern Europe governments will seek to use such negotiations to extract economic preferences from the EU and the US, as they do not wish to bear the cost of delivering Ukrainian grain on their own.
According to Ikbal Durre, associate professor of the theory of regional studies at Moscow State Linguistic University, the development of additional routes for the delivery of Ukrainian grain does not serve Turkey’s interests. First, such routes would not be economically beneficial for the country, and, second, it is desirable for Ankara to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative in order to maintain its relationship with Moscow while balancing it against Turkey’s relations with the West, the expert said.
Izvestia: What’s behind CNN’s publication of video showing Crimean bridge attack
On July 17, CNN published a video of the attack on the Crimean bridge, after the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reportedly handed the video footage over to journalists, marking the first formal acknowledgement of Ukrainian intelligence services’ involvement in the terrorist incident. The broadcasting of such recordings fits into a traditional pattern of the US showing off its "exceptional powers," experts noted to Izvestia.
The fact that video from exterior surveillance cameras was leaked is of particularly conspicuous note. However, according to Izvestia, Russian officials called for a calm reaction to the appearance of such sensational publications. "By showing these videos, they (Western countries and Ukraine - Izvestia) wish to convince us that they have an agent network capable of obtaining or purchasing such recordings, [and] that Russia’s enemies are doing this to convince us that not all is well in Crimea," Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council International Affairs Committee, told the newspaper.
"There are tools one can use to gain access to video surveillance systems. All that’s needed is that the cameras are connected to the Internet," military analyst Alexey Leonkov noted.
It is noteworthy that the video was released over a month after the attack, amid a backdrop of increasing reports in Western media about the failure of Ukraine’s much-advertised counteroffensive.
"Kiev needs to report some kind of victory to its handlers. With failures occurring left and right on the frontlines, the prospects [for Ukrainian forces] are grim, and everyone is well aware of it," military expert Ivan Konovalov told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: US attempting to cement three-way anti-China alliance with Japan, South Korea
US President Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet on August 18 at Biden’s Camp David retreat to announce new joints defense projects. The leaders’ agenda will reportedly not include any talks about a binding mutual defense pact between the three countries, but will focus rather on determining common stances and establishing a trilateral communications hotline for crisis situations. The three countries will boost military cooperation but will not establish a NATO-style organization just yet, Vedomosti writes.
Washington already has bilateral allied military treaties with both Tokyo and Seoul, but the White House now wants the two East Asian countries to draw closer together and cooperate more, driven by US concerns over the challenges posed by China, the newspaper writes.
According to Dmitry Streltsov, dean of the Department of Asian Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), an institutional base in the Seoul-Washington-Tokyo triangle is forming, including in the military field. Initially, this framework was developed to meet the challenges posed by North Korea, but the specter of China is now looming and coming to the fore, according to the expert. This is happening, in many ways, at the initiative of the United States.
According to Alexander Zhebin, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia, the US has been trying to create such an alliance for a long time, but it has been hampered by the periodic aggravation of disagreements between Japan and South Korea. He believes that the US is now attempting to leverage the current world situation to get its Asia-Pacific partners in line for a long confrontation with China and Russia. Zhebin believes that these countries’ common missile defense system and joint exercises could represent a potential threat to Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China, India take pause in long-running Himalayan border dispute
China and India agreed to observe the peace on their disputed Himalayan border, according to a joint statement issued by Beijing following negotiations between the two sides’ commanding units. The document further stated that contentious situations should be settled as soon as possible. However, because there is no official border but only a de facto line of control, China and India maintain military formations in the highlands and continue to build defensive fortifications, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
The Chinese Defense Ministry announced on social media that the 19th round of discussions between the commanders was held in a constructive atmosphere. However, as reported by the Associated Press, neither party indicated a willingness to make concessions.
Summing up the Indian government’s views on relations with China, it is clear that the only prospect for real reconciliation lies with the two countries’ leaders. After all, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to engage in some form of communication during the BRICS summit in Johannesburg on August 22-24. However, it is unclear whether a Xi-Modi meeting is planned, the newspaper writes.
Aleksey Kupriyanov, chairman of the South Asia group at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta: "In essence, this is a proclamation that the parties do not want to further aggravate the situation. Undeveloped terrain in the highlands is not so important for Beijing and Delhi; it’s about ensuring complete sovereignty over their territory."
At the same time, economic goals are also motivating both countries. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, it is no coincidence that Beijing is hosting an investment forum in Kunming with South Asian countries, including India.
Izvestia: Russian exporters already voluntarily selling over 80% of forex earnings
Russia's largest exporters are currently already selling 80% or more of their foreign exchange earnings even without any restrictions imposed by financial authorities, Izvestia writes, based on Bank of Russia data. For several days, Western media, citing sources, have been reporting on meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin purportedly on reintroducing the requirement for companies to sell at least 80% of their foreign exchange earnings. Experts told Izvestia that there is no point in reintroducing such requirements.
"As of now, given that the acute phase has passed, the significant increase in interest rates has worked, and the dollar is trading below the 95 ruble mark, I believe that there will be no restrictions on capital mobility. Besides, such a policy works in the short term, but there are problems with getting companies to comply with it in the long term," Igor Safonov, an expert at the Institute for Development Center of the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), told the newspaper.
According to Vladimir Milovidov, Head of the International Finance Department at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), forcing exporters to sell their forex earnings would increase the availability of foreign currency in the Russian market. However, he noted that this measure is not certain to produce the desired results.
"There is no critical situation today that would force exporters to sell everything," Milovidov believes. Additional restrictive measures would be unwise now, in his opinion. In general, he believes that the tools available for supporting the ruble are currently limited and that the Russian economy needs time to adjust.
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