Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has asserted that the endlessly-hyped claims of an imminent Russian invasion only harm Ukraine. During a press conference for foreign media on January 28, the Ukrainian leader insisted on not talking about a possible war with Russia. He conceded that it is indeed possible, but it should be neither cause for panic, nor for guesstimating the exact dates of the looming conflict. Zelensky also stated that it was impossible to say with certainty that the much-touted "Russian aggression" would happen.
According to him, due to panic over Russia’s possible "invasion," the outflow of capital from Ukraine since the end of autumn has already amounted to $12.5 bln. "Our nation cannot cope with such challenges by itself. We are stabilizing our national currency from state reserves so this costs a lot for Ukraine. I think that we will spend over $4-5 bln to stabilize our economy," the Ukrainian leader said, adding that he hopes for financial aid from the US and more credit from the IMF.
If Zelensky decided to demonstrate Ukraine’s independence in its foreign policy, he seems to have picked a strange instrument for this, Coordinator of the European Dialogue Expert Group in Ukraine Georgy Chizhov said. According to him, Zelensky’s words sounded contradictory from a diplomatic stance since he basically presented those Western countries that support Kiev as not quite adequate in this situation. In the expert’s opinion, by doing so, Zelensky wanted to calm the public and prevent panic.
The US has turned Ukraine into a bargaining chip in relations with Russia and even Zelensky reacted to this, Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Counties Vladimir Zharikhin said. Washington is using the Eastern European country in its political games with Moscow which negatively impacts Ukraine’s economy. According to the commentator, the Ukrainian authorities are trying hard to keep their national currency afloat, as panic around "the Russian invasion" is spooking investors away from Ukraine while there are no serious grounds to gear up for war. This naturally causes displeasure in Kiev which is precisely what Zelensky expressed, the expert noted.
Kommersant: LNG import to Europe beats historic record highs
European consumers bought record high volumes of liquefied gas in January trying to replace the overly expensive gas from Russia. Nevertheless, the market is still far from reaching a balance and its normalization only due to LNG in the absence of supplies from Gazprom seems unlikely. In February, heightened demand in Asia may pull back some LNG deliveries, unless the prices in Europe won’t go up due to cold weather or a geopolitical escalation.
According to Kommersant’s calculations based on data from the GIE European Association, Europe attracted record volumes of LNG in the first month of 2022. On January 28, the average daily volume of gas supplies from LNG terminals to the EU gas transport network amounted to 334 mln cubic meters which surpasses the previous November 2019 record high of 329 mln cubic meters.
However, so far there are no factors for the situation to unfold along with the 2019 setting when LNG suppliers and Gazprom were seriously battling for the European market by lowering prices. First of all, even though demand for gas in Europe dropped due to extremely high prices while the winter turned out to be warmer than the previous one, gas supplies in European underground storage facilities are rapidly depleting. Second of all, even the existing geopolitical bonus to European gas prices related to the standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is not yet capable of propping up LNG prices in Europe higher than in Asia for long. According to several Kommersant’s sources among traders, if there is an escalation, the price hike in Europe may attract some LNG supplies from Asia, but the scenario of a real decrease in gas deliveries from Russia to Europe is still viewed by the market as unlikely.
Izvestia: Russia seeks to deepen CSTO interaction with India, says ambassador
The Russian Federation is interested in India deepening its relations with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia’s newly-appointed Ambassador to New Delhi Denis Alipov said in an interview with Izvestia.
"This region is the zone of the CSTO’s responsibility. And we would be interested in India deepening its relations with the CSTO. India’s contacts with the organization have already been established. Yet we would welcome the republic’s more active and closer interaction with this organization," he specified.
According to the envoy, the Indians are showing a great interest for interaction in Central Asia. "For them, this region, just like for Russia, is of great significance. This is related to many foreign policy issues, principally, to security matters and emerging threats due to the volatile situation in Afghanistan," he explained.
"The SCO, whose members include the Central Asian republics, Russia and India, is active in this area. And I think, this venue is the most effective and appropriate one for deepening our cooperation," the diplomat added.
He also noted that India historically has very close ties with Central Asia, leading active political dialogue and developing trade relations with all of the Central Asian republics. Additionally, India is interested in expanding cooperation in various spheres with Russia in this area, he added.
"So, overall we are interested in cooperation with India on Central Asia in these formats together with other SCO participants and members. This would be extremely useful," the ambassador concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Bishkek, Dushanbe talk peace while continuing to arm
The intergovernmental commission on the demarcation and delimitation of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border is going to resume its work next week, heads of the State Committees for National Security of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Kamchybek Tashiev and Saimumin Yatimov reported. The fact that this issue has not been resolved leads to periodic conflicts resulting in the use of heavy artillery and the loss of life. Meanwhile, Tashiev, speaking about peace, stated that the republic would receive new military equipment in February, which would be sent to the Batken region on the border.
On January 27, a local dispute over road construction along the border’s non-demarcated section flared up between local residents which morphed into a full-fledged armed confrontation, involving firearms, mortars, and grenade launchers, resulting in 23 wounded, two fatalities, and more than 1,500 evacuees.
"Weapon deliveries and its distribution are not the purviews of the head of the State Committee for National Security. Tashiev, by making such statements, essentially lets it be known who’s the ‘master’ of the house, he is standing in both for the president and the defense minister," Director of the Agency for Ethno-National Strategies Alexander Kobrinsky told the newspaper. The expert noted that, according to the eyewitnesses of the events in Kazakhstan, large numbers of Kyrgyz nationals were seen in Almaty. He noted that the Kyrgyz parliament, its pro-government parties, in particular, could not convene at first to approve the participation of the Kyrgyz battalion in the CSTO mission to Kazakhstan.
"Against this general background, there are many more of those interested in the events on the border in Kyrgyzstan rather than in Tajikistan," the expert thinks. According to him, Tajikistan is currently experiencing a lot of domestic problems, including the unstable situation in Gorno-Badakhshan and the problems with the new Afghan leadership, and it is not in Dushanbe’s interest to aggravate the border situation. However, both countries are interested at least in freezing the conflict because of smuggling and drug trafficking routes in the region that are controlled by criminal structures related to high-ranking officials.
Bishkek and Dushanbe refused CSTO help. The organization’s Secretary General Stanislav Zas urged both sides to come to a ceasefire and offered diplomatic support to the conflicting parties. "As for any military presence, for example, of the CSTO peacekeeping contingent, there should be an appeal by both Bishkek and Dushanbe for it. Yet, Russia has to interfere in the situation, otherwise, other players will come there, whose goal is not to settle the situation but to create chaos in the region," the expert emphasized.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moscow weathers Omicron wave without panic
Despite the growing number of coronavirus infections, Moscow’s authorities are not introducing additional restrictive measures while trying to provide more opportunities for residents to receive medical aid. Doctors note that the Omicron strain which causes a milder course of the disease than Delta is predominant in the capital. A careful choice of restrictions makes it possible not to interrupt the operation of business establishments in the city and avoid lockdowns similar to those imposed in European capitals.
The normal operation of stores, shopping centers, cafes, and theaters in Moscow makes it possible to avoid public unrest and it is important to keep calm under the current conditions. "Worrying won’t help in any way in this situation. Even if all of Moscow gets emotional, this won’t stop the spread of the coronavirus infection in any way," Director of the Research Center for the Prevention and Treatment of Viral Infections Georgy Vikulov says.
Alexander Vanyukov, a doctor at the Moscow Clinical Hospital No. 52, also notes that it is unnecessary to call an ambulance for a minor ailment and an insignificant increase in body temperature. "This only makes sense when a condition sharply deteriorates with such signs of the Omicron coronavirus strain as shortness of breath and intoxication. You shouldn’t call an ambulance at all if you are feeling decent and there is no sensation that the situation is spinning out of control," the expert said, noting that the load on the hospitals was already heavy.
The existing anti-coronavirus measures currently allow the city’s authorities to keep the level of incidence under control and no new measures are needed, according to the capital’s businessmen. Restaurateur Andrey Zaytsev says the introduction of stricter measures won’t help in the current situation. "The tightening of anti-COVID measures will bring new losses to restaurants since people already go to restaurants less frequently due to the coronavirus." Andrey Chursin of the Azbuka Vkusa supermarket chain concurs, noting that the existing measures are already effective. "Everybody is observing the restrictions, we try to convey to our customers and our staff the necessity to observe the requirements and decrees of Moscow’s government and the sanitary watchdog, to observe the anti-COVID measures on decreasing the number of infections," he noted.
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