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Central Bank chief says base-case scenario does not suggest economic recession

The Bank of Russia raised its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2024 from 0.5-1.5% to 1-2%

MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. The Russian Central Bank’s base-case scenario does not suggest an economic recession, the regulator’s Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

"Rates should be raised in proper time to avoid the recession risk, to make sure that the imbalance between growth of demand and the lagging growth of goods and services production demand does not lead to constant sharp boost of inflation that would be necessary to reduce then by higher and longer increases in rates, which could lead to recession. Our base-case scenario does not imply recession," she told a press conference after the regulator’s board meeting.

Earlier on Friday the Bank of Russia decided to maintain the key rate at 16% per annum at its first meeting in 2024, indicating that it is too early to judge the sustainability of the emerging disinflationary trends. Current inflationary pressures have eased compared with the autumn months but remain high, domestic demand is still outstripping the capabilities to expand the production of goods and services, the regulator said, adding that a judgement on the sustainable nature of emerging disinflationary trends would be premature. The Bank of Russia’s monetary policy is set to solidify disinflation processes unfolding in the national economy, the regulator added.

The Bank of Russia raised its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2024 from 0.5-1.5% to 1-2%. At the end of 2023, the country’s GDP grew by 3.6%, which is higher than the regulator’s forecasts. For 2025 and 2026, the regulator maintained its GDP growth forecast at 1-2% and 1.5-2.5%, respectively.

At the same time, the Central Bank raised its forecast for the average key rate for 2024 from 12.5-14.5% to 13.5-15.5%. In 2025, the rate is expected to be 8-10%, against the previous forecast of 7-9%, the forecast for 2026 reached 6-7%.

The Bank of Russia will hold its next key rate review meeting on March 22, 2024.

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