MOSCOW, February 14. /TASS/. Global LNG demand will grow by more than 50% by 2040, Shell forecasts in its annual LNG outlook.
"Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China and South Asian and South-east Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth," the statement said.
Total global LNG trade volumes rose to 404 mln tonnes in 2023 from 397 mln tonnes a year earlier. By 2040, demand for LNG will reach approximately 625-685 mln tons per year, Shell believes.
At the same time, demand for gas has already peaked in a number of places throughout the world, but the global peak will not happen until after 2040, according to the company's report. Peak gas consumption is expected in the 2030s in the United States and Argentina, but not until after 2040 in Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa. In Europe and Japan, gas demand peaked in the 2010s.
"China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas. With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkey combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution," Steve Hill, Executive Vice President for Shell Energy said.
According to the company, "Over the following decade, declining domestic gas production in parts of South Asia and South-east Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies increasingly need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry. However, countries in South Asia and South-east Asia would need significant investments in gas import infrastructure.".