MOSCOW, September 8. /TASS/. More than 60% of Russian exports of metallurgical and 42% of steam coal will flow to India by 2030, with Moscow able to become the main supplier of coking coal to the country, according to joint research by Yakov and Partners (formerly McKinsey in Russia) and the Delovaya Rossiya (Business Russia) organization released in the run-up to the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF). Moreover, Russia may become the main supplier of fertilizers to India, authors of the research added.
The cost of production of coking coal in Russia is roughly 50% lower than the average prime cost in Australia, the US and Canada, experts said. They believe that up to 14 mln tons of Russian coking coal exported to the Japanese and South Korean markets may be redirected to India, and another 5 mln tons of new volumes may be sold to India with the currenct transport tariffs.
With a single transport tariff introduced within the North-South International Transport Corridor, Russia will be able to additionally export another 33 mln tons and become the main supplier of coking coal to India by 2030, experts wrote.
"The issue of developing logistics <…> is becoming critical. According to our projections, if the North-South International Transport Corridor is successfully launched its cargo turnover will exceed 70 mln tons by 2030 and 150 mln tons by 2050," partner and co-author of the research Oleg Nazarov said.
Moreover, the prime cost of the production of fertilizers in Russia is also much lower than in other exporters to India, for example, China. After the launch of the western route of the North-South International Transport Corridor Russia will be able to supply another 6 mln tons of fertilizers to the Indian market, which will enable it to become the main supplier in this category.
Last year Russia’s coal imports to India climbed from $1.1 bln to $4 bln, experts noted.