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Bank of Russia considers key rate cuts unlikely at upcoming meetings

The Bank of Russia earlier decided to raise the key rate to 12% from 8.5% per annum at an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors

MOSCOW, September 1. /TASS/. Lowering the key rate at the next meeting of the Bank of Russia is unlikely, Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference on Friday.

"It is unlikely that the key rate will be reduced at the next meetings. Let me remind you that we raised the key rate at the extraordinary meeting exactly because of the development of inflationary risks, and that the position now differs from what it was at the end of 2014, at the start of last year," she said.

Nabiullina noted that lowering the key rate would be possible if price inflation slows down steadily. "The recent rate hike lacks the financial stability benefit that was present in previous stages. At that time, once the risks to financial stability were depleted, the rate could be quickly reduced. We can only lower the rate if we see a consistent decline in price growth," she explained.

The Bank of Russia earlier decided to raise the key rate to 12% from 8.5% per annum at an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors. "The Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to increase the key rate by 350 basis points to 12% per annum from 15 August 2023. The decision is aimed at limiting price stability risks,"the statement said.

"Moving forward, in its key rate decision-making the Bank of Russia will take into account actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target and economic transformation processes, as well as the risks posed by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will return to 4% in 2024,"the regulator added.

The Bank of Russia noted, "Hereinafter, with current price growth rates staying at the attained levels the risk of inflation’s deviation upwards from the target in 2024 is substantial. The Bank of Russia’s decision is aimed at shaping monetary conditions and overall domestic demand dynamics necessary to bring inflation back to 4% in 2024 and stabilize it close to 4% further on."

The next meeting of the Bank of Russia's Board of Directors on the key rate level, is scheduled for September 15, 2023.

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