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World oil prices

Urals discount to fall to $10 in 2024, Brent price to rise to $120 per barrel

Such a positive scenario may drive revaluation of the state on the stock market of not only Russian oil producers, but that of global companies as well, the experts believe

MOSCOW, March 16. /TASS/. The price of Brent crude may reach $100 per barrel by Q4 2023 and climb to $120 by the middle of 2024 as oil demand rises amid limited supply, whereas the discount on Russia’s export Urals oil to Brent will decrease to $10 per barrel in 2024, Renaissance Capital said in a report.

In the fourth quarter of last year and in February 2023 the demand for oil globally from the side of transport sector, which accounts for around 40% of total demand for oil and petroleum products, started going up in Europe, the US and China, the investment company’s experts said. Analysts expect it to result in expansion of deficit on the global oil market amid limited supply as early as in the second half of 2023.

"We expect it to lead to growth of oil prices to $100 per barrel by Q4 2023 and $120 per barrel in the middle of 2024, before OPEC+ responds by raising output quotas," the report said.

Such a positive scenario may drive revaluation of the state on the stock market of not only Russian oil producers, but that of global companies as well, Renaissance Capital’s experts believe. Meanwhile the successful redirection of oil export volumes already in Mach-April 2023 and the continued contraction of the Urals price discount to international frame contracts are another advantage for Russian firms, market watchers noted. "We expect Urals’ discount to Brent to contract from more than $30 per barrel in the beginning of the year to $10 per barrel in 2024, which will serve as an additional factor for improvement of financial indicators [of Russian oil companies]," the report said.

Renaissance Capital also suggests that Russian oil producers overall may continue paying ‘attractive’ dividends for 2023, which may grow substantially in 2024 in the event of implementation of the optimistic oil price scenario.

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