MOSCOW, October 5. /TASS/. By the end of 2020, the decline of Russia’s GDP may reach 4-5%, and the GDP forecast for next year will be adjusted for the worse, Chairman of the Russian Accounts Chamber Alexey Kudrin said on Monday.
"The budget is based on a macro forecast, under which recovery growth is expected in 2021. I must say that the forecast does not take into account the second COVID wave, which, unfortunately, has begun. And thus, this year's GDP decline will probably be bigger than the official forecast, somewhere from 4% to 5%," he said. "Currently no precise estimates have been made, but it is clear that we will have to adjust the forecast for 2021 at the beginning of the year. Winter and the first quarter may be difficult still for economic growth. And the growth indicators for next year can also be adjusted," Kudrin added.
According to Kudrin, in 2013-2019, the average annual GDP growth rate was less than 1% and the expectations of significant GDP growth rates in the coming years are optimistic.
"The average annual growth rate from 2013 to 2019 was less than 1%. We are in a historic period of very low growth rates. Therefore, reaching over 3% growth next year can be expected if we assume that this is a year of a rebound after the crisis, after a decline. But in the following years, 2022-2023, growth expectations above 3% are optimistic," he noted.