CAIRO, November 1. /TASS/. The odds of an early truce in Lebanon are much higher than in the Gaza Strip at this moment, largely due to Lebanon’s being a member of the UN and a sovereign state, Bashir Abdel Fattah, a political observer at the Egyptian Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, has told TASS.
He believes that "Lebanon now has a much better chance for a political settlement and ceasefire primarily because of its status as a sovereign state and its UN membership." For this reason the world community looks at the hostilities on Lebanese territory "somewhat differently than in Gaza" and "insists on an immediate ceasefire to ensure the same scenario does not repeat itself in Lebanon," Abdel Fattah said. He believes that "American mediators are now working harder to resolve the situation on the Lebanese track" than in Gaza, which also increases the chances for a truce to be concluded soon.
The analyst suggests that Israel is also amenable to a ceasefire in Lebanon, as it meets its plans to resolve conflicts in the region and at the same time contradicts the strategy of Iran and its allies.
Warring factions’ positions
Abdel Fattah believes that by implementing a ceasefire in Lebanon, the Israeli authorities can move forward with their strategy to "separate the Lebanese and Palestinian fronts." In this way, the government of the Jewish state will be able to weaken the Axis of Resistance, which includes the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, the Palestinian movement Hamas and its allies in Gaza, radical Shiite groups that are part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and the rebellious Yemeni movement Ansar Allah (Houthis). All of them are allies of Israel's main adversary in the region - Iran - which, according to the Egyptian analyst, at the moment, on the contrary, hopes to unite the resistance forces in the fight against a common enemy and, among other things, to "merge the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza."
However, the political analyst notes, the Lebanese movement Hezbollah, considered one of Tehran's closest allies, has its own position on the issue. In the conflict with Israel, it "does not want to look defeated" and therefore will "seek a truce on its own terms." The latter, Abdel Fattah stressed, may run counter to Israel's vision of future coexistence with its Arab neighbor. The authorities of the Jewish state, the analyst pointed out, "wish to create a wide buffer zone inside Lebanese territory" to protect themselves from further clashes with Hezbollah.
Possible truce
On September 23, the Israel Defense Forces launched an operation codenamed Northern Arrows against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Thus, it has been dealing massive airstrikes against the movement's military facilities. As a result of one of the Israeli strikes, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrullah was eliminated in Beirut on September 27. A month later, on October 29, Hezbollah announced the election of Nasrullah's deputy, Naim Qassem, as its leader. The day after taking office, the movement's new secretary-general made a speech in which he vowed to "continue the battle with Israel until a victorious end," but indicated that "if the enemy stops hostilities, Hezbollah will agree to a truce, but only on terms it deems appropriate."
On the evening of October 30, the Israeli radio station Kan published a US draft of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. The document stipulates that the Israeli army leave southern Lebanon one week after the end of hostilities. The Lebanese army will then deploy up to 10,000 troops along the border with Israel for a 60-day period. At the end of the two months, Israel and Lebanon will enter into indirect talks mediated by the US on the full implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701 and the settlement of border disputes.
Kan also claims that the Israel Defense Forces’ ground operation in southern Lebanon "is in its final phase." According to the broadcaster's sources, Israeli ground raids in southern Lebanon might end within days, if there is no change in the assessment of the military and political situation.