ANKARA, October 4. /TASS/. Iran’s recent attack on Israel has given Tel Aviv and Washington a trump card of military response, but their possible clash with Iran will lead to a serious regional and eventually global crisis, Abdullah Agar, one of Turkey's leading security experts told TASS, while commenting on the latest statements of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the situation in the region.
"Khamenei explained that Iran would be acting patiently, resolutely, and in case of an attack will retaliate, but in a way and at the moment it sees fit. He emphasized that the threat was not only to Iran, but also to other countries in the region, which must act together. Whether Khamenei's statements will stabilize the situation is anyone’s guess. But it should be remembered that Iran could not but carry out the recent attack on Israel, although by doing so it gave the US a trump card for a military response. If the Americans decide to respond, a serious crisis will be imminent in the region and, in the long run, in the whole world," Agar said.
In his opinion, Israel has received clear reasons for a strike on Iran together with the US, which until now "supported Israel only in the context of the principles and concepts of defense."
"If they correctly calculate all the risks of such a strike on Iran, they will be able, for example, to minimize Iran's nuclear potential, which the latter is believed to be going to use as an important element of the negotiation process, and maybe even as a weapon. There have been speculations to this effectr," the expert said.
But at the same time, such an attack on Iran is fraught with a very serious conflict in the region.
"It will be a completely different war. It will encompass extremely important areas - energy resources, sources of energy production and transmission, and trading routes. The Iranian naval guerrilla doctrine will be activated. This crisis will unfold mostly in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and in the Red Sea. There is a risk of a fierce struggle affecting all world trade and global oil supplies. Both sides are now assessing the risks involved," Agar noted.
He explained that the Iranian missile attack on Israel on October 1 was a response to a number of factors.
"First of all, there have been some rumors that Iran has turned its back on Hezbollah. Also, there was the Israeli attack on the symbolically important Fatima Gate border crossing in Lebanon. There exists the risk this area may be taken over. Also, Iran may turn out unable to protect Hezbollah. Therefore, the response was given in a form that leaves an opportunity to balance threats to Tehran," Agar said.
In his view, the situation in the region and on the Iranian track is escalating as both "classic notions of military doctrine about the need to break the enemy's will and determination to fight and the dogmas of Khamenei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu come to the fore."