PARIS, July 9. /TASS/. Strengthening the role of the right and left opposition in the French parliament, despite their calls for peace in Ukraine, will not affect Paris' foreign policy course, as it is mainly determined by the country's President Emmanuel Macron, historian Edouard Husson, a lecturer at Cergy Paris University and founder of the Brennus association, told a TASS correspondent.
"Personally, I really want relations to improve, but as long as Macron is president, with his unpredictable behavior ... I can understand why Russia no longer wants to take his calls. The president of the republic is more about French diplomacy than anything else, and, unfortunately, I don’t see things improving," he said.
The historian lamented that France is experiencing an "Americanization" of diplomacy, which is evident by a gradual retreat from the "Gaullist tradition" of maintaining a balance in relations with the US and Russia. "While Macron has taken a hit domestically - the French have never really liked him - he needs guarantees from the outside. And although before the conflict he was talking with Putin, with Biden, trying to become a mediator, now he cannot separate himself from those who protect him, who support him, and this is largely the Americans," he said.
Husson noted that, unlike in the Fourth Republic, when France faced a division of power between three major political alliances, in the Fifth Republic it is the president, not parliament, who appoints the prime minister. The latter in turn proposes candidates who will follow the president's party line.
"That's why I think the French government - and Macron will make sure of this - will now be made up of people who will stick to the dominant Western position on the Ukrainian conflict and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And I don't think that [Jean-Luc] Melenchon, the founder of the left-wing La France Insoumise party, will be in the government. So, there won't be a minister from National Rally if they try to form a more right-wing government," he said.
External pressure
If the new government is unable to cope with the country’s soaring public debt (102.4% of GDP in the first quarter of 2024) and budget deficit (more than 5% of GDP at the EU's allowed level of 3% of GDP), it will give an excuse to other EU members, particularly Germany, to put pressure on France. "Germany is in trouble. Yes, industrial production costs are up 30%, inflation is rising, but the Germans will say, 'We're going to save money, so you French have to save money too.' That's how it will work. And if France does not agree to these conditions, the euro may face serious turbulence," the agency source said.
"In fact, the euro is more fragile than it seems. The Europeans, instead of benefiting from this crisis, have fully aligned themselves with the US monetary policy and sanctions against Russia. Although the US is interested in peace on the continent, it is more important for them to save the dollar by allowing attacks on the euro. Therefore, it is important to return to the idea of an autonomous European Union. Otherwise, the dependence on the US will be the end of everything," he believes.
Early elections
According to the French Interior Ministry, the New Popular Front alliance has won the extraordinary elections to the National Assembly (lower house of parliament), winning 182 seats. The presidential Together for the Republic coalition got 168 seats, next was the National Rally right-wing party (143), and the Republicans center-right party (46) followed.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called early elections to the National Assembly on June 9 after the defeat of the presidential coalition in the elections to the European Parliament. The first round was held on June 30 and the second on July 7. Following the release of the results, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he would submit a letter of resignation to the president of the republic. However, Macron has so far rejected the letter, asking the prime minister to "temporarily remain in office to ensure stability in the country."