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Coup attempt in Niger

South African expert doubts US would commit its troops to military intervention in Niger

"It is far more likely that the US military would support proxy insurgents instead. This would lead to destabilization of the region and possibly a civil war," Derek Milne noted

MOSCOW, August 18. /TASS/. The United States is unlikely to commit its troops to direct military intervention in Niger, given their practice of relying on proxy forces, Derek Milne at the South African Bar Association told TASS on Friday.

"Given the preferred modus operandi of the US military in Africa, it is unlikely that US troops would be committed to direct military intervention in Niger," the expert said. "It is far more likely that the US military would support proxy insurgents instead. This would lead to destabilization of the region and possibly a civil war," he added, citing high political and reputational risk.

Milne recalled that, in 1994, the Pentagon refused to commit at least a small number of troops to assist with a peacekeeping operation in Rwanda, while the involvement of the US military’s Africa Command (AFRICOM), established in 2007, with its African hosts has been more of an attempt to secure US access to African natural resources and markets.

Position of ECOWAS

Commenting on potential intervention in the situation in Niger by ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States), the expert doubted that it will occur soon, if at all.

"The West African bloc’s preference for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis is evidenced by the recent ECOWAS endorsed mission to the Nigerien capital Niamey, during which it was announced that Niger’s new leader General Tchiani had agreed to engage in direct talks with ECOWAS leaders," he said.

Anti-war sentiments rising

Milne pointed to growing calls for a peace solution in Nigeria which has a decisive voice in ECOWAS.

"The Nigerian Senate has rejected military intervention in Niger. Without Nigerian support, any ECOWAS military intervention is stillborn," he said. In addition, "there is evidence that the popular support base for the new leadership in Niger has broadened both internally and among certain neighboring states like Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, the last mentioned two of which have stated that they will regard any military intervention by ECOWAS as a declaration of war," he concluded.

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