MOSCOW, September 24. /TASS/. The European Parliament hopes to open dialogue with Russia; Tehran is ready to revive talks on a nuclear deal with the US; and Vladimir Zelensky takes his act on the road in the US. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: European Parliament ready to talk with Russia
The European Parliament will extend an olive branch to Moscow and call for renewing dialogue via the EU-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, Slovak MEP Milan Uhrik told Izvestia. While the parliament recently moved to adopt a resolution allowing Kiev to strike legitimate military targets in Russia, some leaders are increasingly talking about the need for talks with Moscow on Ukraine.
In 2021, the European Parliament issued a report about EU-Russia political relations that demanded suspending any engagement with Russia.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament) Committee on International Affairs, confirmed to Izvestia that both formal and informal relations with the EP have been suspended. However, the senator emphasized, "the ball is in the EP’s court now," and that Russia, for one, is open to reviving dialogue as he described the Slovak initiative as "a sound idea." "Of course, there should be communication, especially between parliamentarians who always have more flexibility than government officials. We have not severed contacts with anybody, so if members of the European Parliament are ready to communicate with us, we will welcome that. We are always ready for talks," the politician stressed.
"Today, people realize that more than two years on, Russia has not retreated but has rather been winning on the battlefield while strengthening its economy despite sanctions that have been imposed since 2014, the civil war in Donbass which broke out in 2014 and the escalation of the conflict in 2022," French political analyst Nikola Mirkovic told Izvestia. "It [Russia] is at the head of BRICS, which is forming quite a strong counterforce by welcoming more countries. Therefore, Europe is increasingly embracing a realistic vision of the situation," he continued.
According to Hungarian political scientist Gabor Stier, residents in a number of European countries have felt the consequences of the conflict "on their own skin" and their leaders have to take that into account. "There is a sense of fatigue in Europe, which is why [French President Emmanuel] Macron and [German Chancellor Olaf] Scholz have to play to their voter base, even if that does not mean that they would not like Russia to be defeated," he explained. As Western leaders are worried about saving face, they discuss supporting Ukraine on the one hand and they allow for the possibility of peace with Russia on the other hand, he maintained.
Vedomosti: Iran’s new leadership proposes reviving discussions on nuclear deal with US
Iran is ready to launch nuclear negotiations if other countries "are willing," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said via Telegram on Monday. Moreover, Tehran is open to talking about the issue on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting that will open in New York later on Tuesday. Both Araqchi and the country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, will be taking part. However, Iran’s top diplomat cautioned, "current international conditions make the resumption of talks more complicated and difficult than before."
As part of his presidential campaign, Pezeshkian pledged to restore relations with the West and revive talks on the nuclear deal. Outgoing US President Joe Biden voiced a similar pledge during his election campaign. However, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova lamented last month that this never happened because of Tehran’s alleged lack of cooperation with the IAEA coupled with its general policy of escalation. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to stand firm on its position that UNSC Resolution 2231 regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is still valid and should be honored by every party to the nuclear deal.
Abbas has made similar statements before, but he has also pronounced the JCPOA dead, Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, believes as he does not expect that the nuclear deal will be revived in its previous form. Iran’s nuclear capabilities have increased significantly since 2018, while the JCPOA formally expires next year, he argues. Therefore, any new talks will have to take account of the latest developments even as all parties are willing to negotiate, Sazhin maintained. However, any major progress is unlikely before the inauguration of a new US president in January, so certain "surveillance" regarding this matter is all he expects right now.
Lev Sokolshchik, senior researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, agrees. Those opposing Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will view any communication with Iran as weakness, and "the Republicans will not miss this opportunity," the expert told Vedomosti. Besides, Sokolshchik doubts Washington and Tehran will launch any full-fledged negotiations amid the ongoing Gaza war and the recent escalation in Lebanon.
Izvestia: Zelensky takes act to UNGA
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky will try to pitch his "victory plan" and "peace formula" which has so far not found support among the global majority, including the Global South, during his visit to New York for the UNGA session. During his trip to the United States, Zelensky is planning to meet with US President Joe Biden and presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to share his vision of the situation. He also plans to meet with other, including European, leaders against the backdrop of Washington and London’s potential authorization to use Western-supplied weapons for strikes inside Russia.
The Kremlin will look at Zelensky’s "victory plan" only if it is officially available as it has been cautious about media reports on the topic, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
"Zelensky is a showman and he likes addressing politicians. He has been begging for money and speaking at forums with the main aim of getting some publicity, after which he can claim that the Global South supports Ukraine," American historian and former Harvard University professor Vladimir Brovkin told Izvestia as he described this PR stunt as "pure propaganda."
Leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Blokhin believes that the UNGA session will indeed serve Kiev as an instrument for securing as much support as possible from wavering or neutral countries. "The idea is to put Ukraine in as favorable a negotiating position as possible and force Russia to negotiate on unacceptable terms, including the taking back of Crimea and other lands, rather than on mutually acceptable terms, as Moscow insists," the expert explained. Ukraine will need more Western military aid and additional pressure on Russia for that, he added.
Even if Zelensky would agree to any concessions, the nationalist elites in Ukraine will block him from doing so anyway, Brovkin argues. "The more they insist that Ukraine should retake everything, including Crimea, the further we get from any kind of compromise," he said. Nevertheless, no matter what decisions Western leaders make, they know that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s is not to be fooled with, Brovkin continued. They would hate to confront Moscow outright, given its powerful industrial and nuclear potential. Therefore, the conflict will likely continue until a major Western country reduces its support to Ukraine, the expert concluded.
Kommersant: Global gold rush sparks surge in price of precious metal in Russia
Gold has risen above 7,800 rubles ($84) per gram on the Russian market for the first time since March 2022. The value of the precious metal has grown by almost 8% this month. This growth mostly reflects rising global prices which exceeded $2,600 per troy ounce after the Federal Reserve decided to slash its key rate by as much as 50 basis points to a range between 4.75%-5% on Wednesday. Regular purchases by central banks across the globe, too, have supported gold prices against the backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions.
"The Fed set out to lower rates, and markets are anticipating up to three additional rate cuts later this year," Alyona Nikolayev, portfolio manager at Astero Falcon, told Kommersant. This would weaken the dollar and make holding gold all the more attractive.
Geopolitics, too, has propped up global gold prices. Anna Kokoreva, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, explained that the large number of geopolitical tensions globally has seen both investors and global central banks flocking to buy up the precious metal. According to the World Gold Council, in January-July, regulators bought more than 520 metric tons of gold, nearly equaling a record set in the first seven months of 2023.
In the midterm, global gold prices may rise to $2,700 per ounce, Kokoreva says as she does not rule out that volatility may increase as well, with the precious metal showing a more than 28% rise this year, leaps and bounds ahead of many other asset classes. Meanwhile, Nikolayeva argues that a gold correction is possible when every market player expects that prices will grow.
Gold prices in ruble terms will also depend on dollar fluctuations in Russia. Lead analyst at Cifra Broker Natalia Pyryeva says the ruble, other things being equal, may weaken to the US dollar by 2% to 3% which would take gold prices to as high as 8,000 rubles ($86.5) per gram or even higher.
Vedomosti: Global appetite for Russian coal may outpace export capacity
Demand for Russian coal on international markets will outpace export capacities by rail by 1.5 times by 2030, given the current infrastructure restrictions, Mikhail Shiryborov, research director at the Institute of Natural Monopolies Research (IPEM), said in a report seen by Vedomosti.
According to IPEM, in 2030, global consumption of Russian coal will grow by 38% from 2023 to 294 mln metric tons, while annual coal exports by railroads operated by Russian Railways will increase by only 25% to 234 mln metric tons and the shipping capacity of ports nationwide will make it possible to export as much as 493 mln metric tons of coal, or 1.5 times as much as in 2023, analysts estimate.
While prospects for growth in demand for Russian coal look upbeat, much will depend on geopolitics and on whether there is access to certain markets as well as on commodity prices, Dmitry Puchkarev, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, told Vedomosti. Last year, Russian coal exports fell by 4% in annual terms to 212.5 mln metric tons, according to data from the Russian Energy Ministry. Of that amount, the Asia Pacific accounted for as much as 175 mln metric tons. Russian coal production volumes decreased by as little as 1% year-on-year to 438.7 mln metric tons last year.
Coal exports have always flourished on preferences, Pavel Ivankin, President of the National Research Center for Transportation and Infrastructure, recounted. "Current forecasts are based on the availability of such opportunities. Should there be a discount, both the Eastern route and the Arctic basin will be used for coal shipments. And the market itself will adjust other parameters anyway," he insists.
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