MOSCOW, November 16. /TASS/. New EU sanctions are likely to have a negligible impact on Russia, Moscow and Washington avoid direct confrontation at the APEC meeting, and the US government shutdown may leave Ukraine without new funds. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: New EU restrictions to have little impact on Russia
The European Commission's approval of the 12th package of anti-Russian sanctions on November 15 will not force Moscow to change its foreign policy, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia. According to him, the upcoming restrictions will only demonstrate that the previous 11 sanctions packages had no meaningful influence on the Russian economy. The new EU measures will include diamond export bans, a tightening of the oil price cap, and restrictions on individuals. All that is left is for the EU Council to approve the package.
"If a 12th package is required, it means that the previous 11 did not work. I am sure that even in their wildest dreams, the authors of the EU sanctions could not have imagined that this would reach double digits," Kosachev said.
Ivan Vilibor Sincic, a Croatian member of the European Parliament, believes that the potential restrictions against Russian diamond imports will mostly affect Belgium, which would also cause minor additional economic damage to the EU, but in the grand scheme of things, not much will change.
According to Russian experts, the new EU sanctions will have little impact on the Russian economy. Ivan Timofeev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, believes that the economy and market have for some time now treated European constraints as "run-of-the-mill."
"I believe the list of blocked individuals will grow. Perhaps the list of export limitations imposed on Russia for certain industrial commodities will also be expanded. But, in general, they are already well-known issues, and I don't believe they will have a significant macroeconomic impact. Certain business sectors in Russia have suffered as a result of sanctions, and this is nothing to laugh at. However, the political impact of this is nil. Russia will not abandon its political course and will continue to pursue it despite sanctions," he told the newspaper.
Kommersant: Moscow, Washington avoid direct confrontation at APEC summit
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco provided a reprieve in the conflict between the US and Russia - for the first time since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, Washington seemed willing to listen to Moscow, allowing the Russian delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk to participate in APEC deliberations, Kommersant wrote. The summit agenda did not include the topic of Ukraine, an issue that has typically been discussed at international gatherings attended by the US after February 24, 2022.
The general tone of the San Francisco summit was markedly different from the summits held the last two years. Previously, US representatives and their allies only tried to make things worse with Moscow, focusing on Ukraine and insisting on the formation of a coalition to restrain Russia and China, the newspaper writes. As a result, discussions and negotiations turned scandalous and led to no final documents being agreed, as seen at multiple G20 ministerial meetings this year.
This time, by all appearances Washington was ready for collaborative cooperation, even though Russian President Vladimir Putin was not invited. In response to a question about the prospects for interaction between Russian and US representatives on the sidelines of the APEC summit, coordinator for strategic communications at the White House's National Security Council John Kirby said that the US is looking forward to the opportunity to host them as part of a broad economic program and discussion.
However, despite limited progress, direct meetings between officials from the two countries on the sidelines of the APEC conference are out of the question at this point. Sergey Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, issued a gloomy assessment of US-Russia ties. Shortly before the APEC summit, Ryabkov did not rule out the possibility that relations with the US could regress to the point of complete rupture.
Izvestia: Government shutdown in US could leave Ukraine strapped for cash
The United States may soon face a government shutdown, as the temporary budget agreement negotiated at the end of September expires on November 17. The House of Representatives is now introducing a new bill, but it does not include funding for Ukraine and Israel, Izvestia writes. If the new financial document is not approved, all government agencies will cease to operate on November 18.
The House of Representatives is working hard to keep this from happening. On November 14, the lower chamber of the US Congress passed a bill on a two-stage temporary government funding plan that excluded aid to Israel and Ukraine. If the resolution is approved by the Senate and signed by US President Joe Biden, the subject of transferring funds to sponsor military activities will be put on the backburner until early 2024.
The threat of a government shutdown coupled with the record US national debt may mean major economic problems for the United States, Russian Institute for Strategic Studies expert Pavel Zakharov told Izvestia. "The United States' economic difficulties require dramatic measures, for which no one is prepared. There may be some movement here only after the 2024 elections, when, if the Democrats win, they will try to tackle economic problems by raising taxes, while the Republicans will decrease public spending," the expert said.
When it comes to approving the interim budget, the US will not prioritize foreign policy matters. Forced to choose between paying civil servants' salaries and social security for ordinary citizens, the US will opt not to fund foreign conflicts, Zakharov believes.
Being that Ukraine's counter-offensive has failed to produce anything special, the US will progressively cut spending on Ukraine, according to political scientist Igor Pshenichnikov. He believes that the United States will not, however, slash financing for Israel. "They will never stop funding Israel. Under all administrations, the United States has regarded Israel as its primary Middle East ally," the expert Izvestia.
Kommersant: Russia expands oil supplies to Pakistan
Russia is increasing oil supplies to Pakistan, having already delivered its third shipment this year, with Surgutneftegaz being the lone supplier, according to Kommersant. Russia has also been considering a long-term oil supply contract with Pakistan for several months, but nothing has been finalized yet. According to experts, exports to Pakistan may be less profitable for Russian companies than sales to India due to the Karachi port's restrictions on accepting huge oil tankers.
According to Kpler data available to Kommersant, Surgutneftegaz exported a new batch of oil from the port of Ust-Luga to Pakistan in early November in the amount of approximately 100,000 tons. The Clyde Noble tanker was loaded on November 7 at the port of Ust-Luga in the Leningrad area. In May, the oil company resumed deliveries, transporting the same amount of oil from Primorsk to Karachi. The company supplied the second batch in August to meet the needs of the country's largest oil refinery, Cnergyico Pk. As a result, Surgutneftegaz remains the sole Russian supplier of oil to Pakistan.
The appeal of Russian supplies for Pakistan stems from the fact that Russia is compelled to sell its oil at a discount owing to sanctions, and the loss of the European market has raised the cost of chartering ships for Russian businesses, the newspaper writes.
According to Kommersant's sources, deliveries to Pakistan may be less profitable for Russian companies than to neighboring India due to limits in the ability of Pakistani ports to accommodate huge tankers. According to Victor Katona from Kpler, Russian oil companies have two alternatives when exporting oil to Pakistan. "They can send volumes to state-controlled refineries, access to which is severely limited due to the port of Karachi's low throughput. Tanker unloading in Karachi is limited to 50,000 tons, forcing Russian exporters to rely on ship-to-ship transfers, which would disrupt the supply chain," the expert said. He added that the second alternative is to transport the oil to Cnergyico's private refinery in Balochistan, which primarily processes light Emirati Murban oil that is combined with locally produced oil.
Vedomosti: Economists expect ruble to stabilize to 90 rubles per dollar in late November - December
The ruble’s rise against the dollar has picked up steam this week - since Friday, November 10, the US currency has declined in value by 3%, and as of the close of trading on Wednesday, November 15, it reached 89.45 rubles per dollar. The cycle of national currency strengthening began in mid-October, when the president signed a decree requiring individual exporters to sell a share of their foreign currency revenues on the domestic market, Vedomosti writes.
According to BCS Forex expert Anatoly Trifonov, the required selling of foreign currency revenues has further diminished the influence of the ruble's share of export payments.
Another key reason for the systematic strengthening of the ruble is the growing key interest rate, which recently rose from 7.5% to 15%, Vedomosti writes.
The rate of the ruble's further strengthening or weakening may be determined by the activities of individual players, which cannot be predicted or even followed, according to Sovcombank's chief analyst Natalya Vashchelyuk. However, she noted that the previous arguments for the strengthening of the ruble will remain significant in the coming weeks - high interest rates will reduce the demand for currency and limit economic activity and imports.
According to Denis Popov, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank, by the end of November the ruble may consolidate in the range of 85-90 rubles per dollar.
According to Natalya Vashchelyuk, the exchange rate may reach 85 rubles per dollar. However, she warned that this recovery will be temporary - the ruble may fall again in December due to a likely increase in government and consumer spending, as well as lower oil prices. By the end of the year, the ruble may return to 95 per dollar, according to her estimates.
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