MOSCOW, August 10. /TASS/. Turkey seeking ways to revive, expand Black Sea grain deal; Latvia, Poland beefing up security against phantom threat on Belarusian border; and Russia’s central bank planning to run test transactions with digital ruble. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Erdogan seeking to mediate renewed, expanded version of grain deal
The Biden administration is backing Turkey's efforts to relaunch the Black Sea grain deal, which expired on July 17. In a statement on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s potential visit to the country, the US State Department praised Ankara's involvement in "pressing" Moscow on the subject of the Black Sea Initiative. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the day before that his country is striving to preserve and even expand the accord, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
"Turkey is one of the main stakeholders in the implementation of the grain deal, both in the political sense and, more importantly, in the economic and security spheres," Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Asian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the newspaper.
"It (the grain deal - TASS) also provided certain guarantees for Turkey. The situation in Turkey has not changed since the elections. Ankara is trying to maintain its revenues, unique market position and security guarantees, as well as its ability to influence international institutions and individual governments through the grain deal. As a result, Turkey is willing to take certain risks and actively participate in this initiative in order to restore or conclude a new deal in which Ankara will have a leading and constructive position."
According to the expert, there is no other country that would have a greater interest in playing the role of mediator and would have the same resources and willingness to spend them on promoting the deal. "Saudi Arabia, for all of its attention to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and all of its contributions to the negotiation process, has never pursued such a goal," Lukyanov explained. However, the expert believes that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can both play a certain role in helping to revive the grain deal in order to move the negotiating process forward, even if they are ultimately pursuing their own interests.
Izvestia: Latvia, Poland conjuring up non-existent threat on Belarusian border
Latvia is strengthening border controls in those regions of the Baltic state bordering on Belarus starting from August 11. The new restrictions will be in effect for six months. Earlier, Poland declared that it will tighten security along its border with Belarus by dispatching an additional thousand-strong troop contingent to the border zone. Vilnius intends to follow suit. Russia is also keeping an eye on the increased activity in Eastern Europe. Experts, interviewed by Izvestia, stressed that Belarus does not pose any threat to its neighbors.
"Latvia and Poland are bringing themselves to the abyss; that’s our response. Our policy and position have always been transparent. However, we are seeing a build-up of forces along our borders, which is particularly evident in Poland, whose rapid reaction brigades are already 40 kilometers from the border. This shows that [Warsaw] is not adopting a defensive posture but rather is pursuing an offensive stance. We are guarding our borders; we will continue to guard them. But let me be clear: We have never represented a threat to anyone and never will. But we will not tolerate any provocation on our territory," Tengiz Dumbadze, deputy chairman of the Permanent Commission on International Affairs in the lower of house of Belarus’ parliament, told Izvestia.
According to Oleg Gaidukevich, deputy chairman of the parliamentary Permanent Commission on International Affairs, "Belarus is fully aware that Latvia and Poland survive by puffing up a contrived threat from our side. At the same time, the leaders of these countries are well aware that Belarus poses no threat whatsoever."
"We plan to respond to the actions of these neighboring countries in an asymmetric manner: So, if they close their borders, we’ll do the opposite and offer visa-free entry to allow citizens of Lithuania, Latvia and Poland to visit Belarus," Belarusian political scientist Aleksey Dzermant told the newspaper. "But, of course, we are aware that the elites of these countries could take things to extremes, such as instituting a border blockade and a complete shutdown of transport links, including passenger traffic, which would benefit no one - not us and not them," the expert cautioned.
Vedomosti: Central Bank of Russia planning to run test transactions with digital ruble
The Bank of Russia will begin testing the digital ruble in actual transactions starting on August 15 and will then put it into widespread circulation based on the outcome of the phased testing, according to Bank of Russia First Deputy Governor Olga Skorobogatova. The pilot will involve 600 people and 30 retailers in 11 Russian cities. However, the regulator intends to increase the number of participants within the next month or two, Vedomosti writes.
The first phase will test the creation of digital wallets for banks and their clients - both individuals and businesses - as well as transfers between clients and payments at points of sale using QR codes. To date, 13 banks have participated in testing the digital version of the national currency. Initially, 15 financial institutions were included in the first phase of exploratory testing, but Sberbank and Tinkoff Bank were removed from the list. Next year, a second group of 16 financial institutions will take part in the experiment.
The regulator quickly made it clear to the banks that the digital ruble was not developed in their interest. Rather, the Bank of Russia sees the digital ruble as a new payment method that will allow consumers and businesses to make seamless, affordable payments.
According to analysts, the government stands to reap the most visible benefit from the digital ruble. According to the head of the Blockchain and Fintech Laboratory at the Skolkovo Management School, Egor Krivosheya, it is possible to carry out a digital transformation and reduce the size of the shadow economy through automation and digitization of the money flow chain.
Vedomosti: US restricts investment in AI and advanced semiconductors in China
The White House issued an executive order restricting direct investment in Chinese high-tech companies with at least 50% of revenues derived from quantum computing, AI development and advanced semiconductors. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, this may slow, but not stop, the growth of Chinese startups.
The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and Bloomberg, citing sources, reported on the new US government regulations, which are ostensibly intended to stem threats to national security. The planned restrictions will not take effect until 2024 at the earliest and would not apply to investments already approved in the US.
According to Lev Sokolshchik, a research fellow at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University) Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, the effort falls within the general framework of US-China relations. China is a strategic adversary of the United States, according to the 2022 US National Security Strategy, which calls for the containment of China in all critical economic areas, including the development of AI and advanced semiconductors.
According to Konstantin Kotik, head of the NLP R&D team at Just AI, China has become one of the world's leading technological players, actively attracting foreign funding, particularly from the United States, to build its AI industry and technical equipment. Despite its efforts to establish technological autonomy in AI, China remains dependent on foreign investment.
"This is not to say that the new White House executive order is fatal for the Chinese tech sector, because it is startups, not established Chinese tech companies, that will suffer the most," China expert Leonid Kovachich told the newspaper.
Izvestia: Central Bank of Russia may raise key rate to 10-10.5% before year-end 2023
The Bank of Russia’s key rate may approach double digits this year for the first time since June 2022, according to analysts polled by Izvestia. Experts believe that in order to keep the price growth rate under control, the banking regulator would have to raise the rate to 10-10.5% by the end of the year.
All experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the regulator will raise the key rate at its next meeting. Another uncertainty is what steps the Bank of Russia will take to raise interest rates at its next meeting. Most experts predict that the regulator will raise rates by 1 percentage point to 9.5% per annum in September.
Sergey Konygin, senior economist at Sinara investment bank, made a similar prediction: "In September, the rate may be raised by 1-1.5 percentage points, depending on how much inflation accelerates at an exchange rate of 95 rubles per dollar and above."
"We expect that this time the rate will be raised quite sharply - by 2 percentage points to 10.5%. The aim of the increase is to reduce aggregate demand and, as a result, the volume of imports, which would help stabilize the ruble exchange rate. For example, at the moment it is clearly undervalued against the dollar," Sergey Grishunin, managing director of rating service NRA, told Izvestia.
Denis Popov, chief analyst at PSB, believes that a key rate of 10% by the end of the year will be enough to achieve the inflation target of 4% in 2024.
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