MOSCOW, April 17. /TASS/. Russia begins large-scale spot check of Pacific Fleet’s combat readiness; China's new defense minister visits Moscow for high-level talks; and clashes between rival military factions in Sudan continue. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia tests its defense capabilities in Far Eastern waters
Military dangers for Russia are growing not only in the West, but also in the Far East, which is why Moscow has launched a large-scale spot check of the combat readiness of the Pacific Fleet, to which the long-range aviation of the Aerospace Forces was added on April 16. Nuclear-capable Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 missile carriers have landed at the Pacific Fleet's operational airfields and will "conduct air patrols of various areas," the Russian Defense Ministry said. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta do not rule out the possibility that these actions are related to Japan's territorial claims against Russia, as well as to the United States' Global Thunder 23 strategic exercises, which began last week.
Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, indirectly supported these conclusions when he said last Friday that a "training environment typical for a period when there is a direct threat of aggression" had been developed in preparation for the spot check of the Pacific Fleet. The newspaper noted that recent exercises by US air and naval forces have been held near Russia's borders, or in regions where Russia has geopolitical interests.
Military expert Nikolay Shulgin, a retired colonel, pointed out that Japan's military budget for 2023 will exceed $51 bln, which is nearly as much as Russia spends on defense. "In addition, Tokyo anticipates annual defense spending of $73 bln in the coming years. Only the United States and China now spend more on military needs than this," he noted.
In such conditions, it is entirely understandable that Russia is preparing to significantly reinforce its Far Eastern borders, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. According to the newspaper, ships and submarines of the Pacific Fleet are moving from their bases to the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea "as part of strike, anti-submarine and mine sweeping groups, as well as landing ship detachments" as part of the spot check. In other words, Russian troop formations on the Kuril Islands and on Sakhalin will be reinforced not only by naval assets, but also by the Pacific Fleet's naval infantry and coast guard units, in addition to naval aviation and the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Izvestia: Russian Foreign Ministry names terms for return to New START
Russia is willing to consider resuming full implementation of the New START Treaty if the US meets specific requirements, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. These requirements include the renunciation by the US of hostile policies towards Russia, a readiness to resolve issues concerning Washington's compliance with the technical aspects of the treaty, and [participation in] efforts to identify appropriate means and formats for tracking the combined arsenal of the NATO "nuclear alliance," including the US, the UK, and France. However, experts do not expect that a resumption of New START negotiations will be possible in the near future, Izvestia writes.
Moscow doubts that the US is ready to drastically change its policy toward Russia, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. "Washington's declared intent to preserve the New START Treaty could be welcomed only if it was accompanied by a genuine willingness to reconsider the highly adversarial [US] policy aimed at deliberately weakening our national security, which ultimately forced us to suspend the treaty. The Russian side would be ready to consider returning to full implementation of New START only if the US meets this essential condition," the ministry told Izvestia. At the same time, Russia maintains its position that all countries with nuclear weapons should be included in the negotiations.
Experts are pessimistic about the chances for negotiations between Russia and the United States on the issue of resuming New START. According to Dmitry Danilov, head of the European Security Department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the key to such talks is trust, but that has been completely destroyed in the Russia-US relationship.
At the same time, experts believe that the conclusion of New START, if it happens, would have little impact on the international situation. In general, even when this document was being finalized in 2010, many experts anticipated that New START would be the last agreement of its kind and that a new control mechanism would be needed afterwards, Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: China's new defense minister arrives in Moscow
China’s National Defense Minister and member of the State Council, General Li Shangfu, arrived in Moscow on April 16 for a visit that will last until April 18. Beijing’s defense chief met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. This marked the first time that General Li met in his official capacity with Putin and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu. According to the Russian Defense Ministry's press service, the parties are expected to focus on the current status of and future prospects for bilateral defense cooperation, as well as current global and regional security issues. The minister will also visit Russian military training facilities, Vedomosti writes.
According to Vasily Kashin, head of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), military-technical cooperation with China has never stopped, and the current armed conflict in Ukraine will not halt it. "Chinese weapons and military equipment will most likely not be supplied to Russia. At the same time, any joint projects will be kept as secret as possible, as was the case in previous years following the enactment of the US CAATSA Act (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) in 2017," he told the newspaper.
Alexander Ermakov, an analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council, noted that Russia's spot combat readiness check in the Far East could be linked to Chinese maneuvers north of Taiwan. According to him, it is difficult to analyze maneuvers in the Pacific Ocean without thoroughly considering the Chinese context.
Meticulous arrangements were no doubt made for the minister’s visit. It is intended to indicate that military-political collaboration between the two countries is growing, despite Western attempts to sever their bilateral ties, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, believes.
Izvestia: Clashes between rival groups may make Sudan too hot to handle for outside powers
The armed conflict in the African nation of Sudan, which broke out on April 15, is unlikely to last long, but the situation carries the risk of the country returning to its previous state of chaos as well as the loss of international partners, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. More than 50 people have died as a result of the events, but despite appeals from a number of countries to sit down at the negotiating table, none of the warring parties has taken a step forward.
The real causes of the clashes are a protracted internal dispute among "Sudanese elites," Vsevolod Sviridov, expert at the Center for African Studies at National Research University Higher School of Economics, told the newspaper. "A simmering domestic political crisis has been ongoing in Sudan since 2019, but at that time the opposing forces acted together," he added.
The [Sudanese military’s] special forces hope to increase their clout in the country's domestic political processes, not in terms of access to any kind of military resources, but in terms of direct control over the economy and the distribution of power, he noted.
Under the leadership of Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan has begun to re-enter the international arena, the expert said. China has emerged as the country's most important external partner, and destabilization in the African republic is particularly detrimental to China's interests.
While an escalation of the conflict could stop short of bringing Sudan back to total chaos, it would make the country too hot to handle for other outside actors, he said. Nevertheless, the expert argued that the prerequisites for an outbreak of civil war are currently lacking.
Kommersant: Kiev, Brussels condemn ban on Ukrainian agro imports to Poland and Hungary
The temporary ban by Poland and Hungary on imports of Ukrainian agricultural products across their respective borders has augmented the list of obstacles to extending the Istanbul agreements, which allow for exports of Ukrainian grain via designated Black Sea corridors and are set to expire on May 18. Warsaw and Budapest argue that the ban is intended to protect local farmers. The actions of Poland, which claims to be Ukraine's closest partner, provoked a predictably unfavorable reaction in Kiev. The decision was also considered "unacceptable" in Brussels. With the prospects for the "Black Sea Initiative" cloudy, transporting Ukrainian grain to world markets may become even more difficult, Kommersant writes.
Farmers in Eastern Europe have experienced significant challenges in marketing their products as a result of the temporary elimination of tariffs on Ukrainian goods in the EU. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food expressed its regret over the decision. At the same time, Kiev had previously agreed to stop selling its products in Poland, but requested that the transit through Polish territory continue. According to media reports, talks between the parties could begin on Monday, April 17.
At the same time, Poland's decision was partly dictated by the upcoming parliamentary elections at the end of 2023. The unhappiness of farmers troubled the Polish government more than Warsaw’s duties as an ally to its neighbor, Kommersant writes.
The entire situation is exacerbated by the fact that the fate of the Istanbul agreements on the export of Ukrainian grain via Black Sea corridors remains undetermined. In March, Russia agreed to extend the deal for 60 days, until May 18, instead of the 120 days stipulated in the agreements. Moscow explained its stance by pointing out that the component of the "Black Sea Initiative" involving the unblocking of Russian exports had not yet been implemented due to Western sanctions.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews