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Analysts revise upward inflation, key rate forecast — Central Bank

The inflation outlook for Russia this year has been raised from 5.2% to 5.5% in 2024

MOSCOW, May 29. /TASS/. Analysts polled by the Bank of Russia revised upward their inflation, key rate and GDP forecasts, the regulator said.

The inflation outlook for Russia this year has been raised from 5.2% to 5.5% in 2024. Analysts expect inflation to return to the target level close to 4% in 2025 and then remain at this level.

Experts also lifted the forecast for the key rate of the Bank of Russia to be 15.9% per annum on average in 2024, 12.4% per annum in 2025, and 9.4% per annum in 2026. The median estimate for the neutral key rate was revised to 7.5% per annum.

The forecast on the growth of Russia's economy was revised by 0.8 percentage point to 2.9% in 2024, while expectations for the next two years and the long-term growth rate estimate remained unchanged, amounting to 1.7%, 1.6%, and 1.5% respectively.

Analysts also expect the ruble exchange rate to be 92.3 rubles per dollar in 2024, 96.2 rubles per dollar in 2025, and 98.3 rubles per dollar in 2026.

Brent oil prices are forecast to reach $84 per barrel in 2024, $80 per narrel in 2025, and $75 per barrel in 2026.

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