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Bank of Russia identifies main risks for its baseline forecast

Among them are continued elevated inflation expectations, widening budget deficits, rising geopolitical tensions and increased volatility in financial markets

MOSCOW, November 7. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia has identified the main risks to its baseline forecast, according to the regulator's report.

These include persistently high inflation expectations, growing budget deficits, rising geopolitical tensions, and increased financial market volatility.

According to the Bank of Russia, pro-inflationary risks remain high in the medium term, which means that inflationary expectations of companies and people will also remain high and may even grow further. "In this case, lending will continue to grow at a rapid pace, while the population's propensity to save will decrease. As a result, domestic demand will continue to outstrip supply expansion opportunities, adding to long-term inflationary pressures in the economy," the regulator said.

In addition, the Bank of Russia estimates that in conditions of limited available labor resources, labor productivity growth may continue to lag behind real wage growth.

Another pro-inflationary risk is further fiscal easing. "In the event of a further widening of the budget deficit, pro-inflationary risks will increase again, and tighter monetary policy may be needed to bring inflation back to the target in 2024 and to keep it close to 4% thereafter," the report said.

Rising geopolitical tensions could also have an impact on foreign trade. "Tighter foreign trade and financial restrictions may reduce demand for Russian exports and have a pro-inflationary impact through exchange rate dynamics. In addition, the increased complexity of production and supply chains and financial settlements as a result of external restrictions may lead to higher import prices," the regulator said.

Risks also include worsening global economic growth forecasts and greater volatility in global financial markets. As a result, these variables may cause the ruble to depreciate, which would have pro-inflationary effects on the Russian economy in the short term, the Bank of Russia said.

On the other hand, the Bank of Russia identified a faster slowdown in domestic demand growth than projected in the baseline scenario as one of the disinflationary risks. "This could lead to a faster slowdown in lending and, consequently, to more pronounced disinflationary processes in the economy," the report said.

According to the watchdog, an increase in the price of Russia's key export items or a growing physical volume of export supplies could have a disinflationary effect by strengthening the ruble's exchange rate.

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