ANKARA, August 16. /TASS/. The likelihood of a resumption of the Black Sea Grain Initiative has declined significantly due to the security situation in the region, a Turkish source told TASS.
"The latest incident with a Russian [naval] ship checking a [cargo] vessel in the Black Sea makes it clear that Russia is declaring its intention to control maritime traffic and thus prevent any unilateral moves for [resuming] the grain deal. But there are two obvious problems here. It will be very difficult to control all ships in the area if a decision is made to export grain this way. Secondly, the current security situation in the Black Sea has worsened due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships and Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. This significantly reduces the likelihood of a resumption of the grain deal," the source said.
He also noted that there are fears that Western countries will step up their pressure on Turkey to regulate marine traffic through the Turkish Straits under the Montreux Convention to resume grain exports from Ukraine.
"The West is expressing this idea. Yes, Turkey fulfills the terms of the Montreux Convention. So, let NATO and other Western countries escort merchant ships that participate in the grain deal to Ukrainian ports. But in this case, the situation will sharply deteriorate, and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea would transform into a global one. And they are stepping up and may further step up their pressure on Turkey in the context of this idea. There are such fears," the source said.
About the grain deal
On July 17, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal, which was originally concluded in Istanbul in July 2022 and had provided for the safe export of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea as well as the creation of conditions for Russia to export its agricultural products and fertilizers. Moscow said that its withdrawal was driven by the other parties’ failure to fulfill their obligations under the provisions of the Istanbul agreements that were supposed to have green-lighted supplies of Russian agribusiness products to world markets.
Later, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that, due to the termination of the grain deal, effective at midnight Moscow time on July 20, Russia would regard all ships destined for Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea as carriers of military cargo, and accordingly the flag countries of such ships would be deemed as parties to the Ukrainian conflict on the side of Kiev. The ministry also reported that a number of sea areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea have been declared temporarily hazardous for navigation.
On August 10, Ukraine announced temporary corridors in the Black Sea for merchant ships sailing to or from the ports of Chernomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny.