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OPEC projects decline in liquids supply in Russia by 6.5% by 2027 due to sanctions

It is reported that many international oil companies active in Russia’s upstream have also announced divestments or a halt to activities, raising questions about continued investment

MOSCOW, October 31. /TASS/. /TASS/. Russia’s production of liquid hydrocarbons will go down by 6.5% by 2027 to 10.1 mln barrels per day from 10.8 mln barrels per day in 2021 due to sanctions and the EU’s oil supply embargo, according to OPEC’s long-term outlook dubbed World Oil Outlook (WOO) released on Monday. Later output is expected to start gradually recovering amid a rise in domestic investment, including due to Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project, reaching 10.5 mln barrels per day by early 2030s.

"Russian liquids supply is projected to decline in the short-and medium-term, as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a resulting combination of weaker domestic demand, embargos and self-sanctioning by purchasers of the country’s oil. Most importantly, a near-full ban on imports of Russian crude into EU countries (exceptions will remain in place for some pipeline imports into Eastern Europe), to be implemented around the end of 2022, and concurrent limitations on insurance, shipping and commodity trade finance, are likely to have a meaningful impact," the document said.

Many international oil companies active in Russia’s upstream have also announced divestments or a halt to activities, raising questions about continued investment and, in some cases, technology transfer, OPEC added.

Nevertheless, the oil cartel expects output in Russia to start growing after 2027, particularly due to Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project, reaching 10.4 mln barrels per day in 2045.

"Thereafter, expectations are for a gradual and partial recovery in output, as domestic investment picks up, notably in the large Vostok project in Eastern Siberia, which groups existing and some future fields into a new mega-complex. As a result, production levels are set to rise again to around 10.5 mb/d by the early 2030s, and are projected to average 10.4 mb/d by 2045," OPEC noted.

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