MOSCOW, July 8. /TASS/. NATO is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine at the Ankara summit; the EU is pressuring opponents of sanctions against Russia to adopt the 21st restrictions package. Meanwhile, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) Executive Board has readmitted Russia to international sports. These stories topped Wednesday’s headlines in Russia.
Izvestia: NATO summit to determine support for Ukraine
Experts believe that the new military aid package NATO is preparing for Ukraine at the Ankara summit will not tip the scales in Kiev’s favor. While the 70 billion euros earmarked for Ukraine is unprecedented in scale, it will only be enough to extend the conflict, not turn the tide. European countries and Canada will cover the package because the US has declined to participate directly. Meanwhile, the Europeans’ own resources are dwindling, and some have acknowledged that they have almost nothing left to offer Kiev. At the same time, the allies are finalizing multibillion-dollar defense deals at the summit, which Washington has long urged them to do.
Meanwhile, the deep-seated disagreements between the US and Europe have not disappeared. US President Donald Trump accuses the allies of "not standing by" the US during its operation against Iran. Washington has also announced a reassessment of the deployment of American troops in Europe. According to St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeremina, there is no unified position among NATO allies, while Washington is forming its approach based on the principle of minimal involvement in the conflict while maximizing financial returns: the US is ready to support purchases made within the country but has no intention of assuming direct commitments.
According to Western media reports, the draft final document includes a pledge by European allies and Canada to allocate €70 billion to Ukraine in 2026, as well as a reaffirmation of their intention to maintain a similar level of aid in 2027. However, this money will not change the course of the conflict, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large for the crimes of the Kiev regime Rodion Miroshnik said. "These funds will clearly not be enough to ensure the victory that some are counting on. But to drag out the war and prolong the bloodshed, this massive sum will be more than enough," he told Izvestia.
Allies will most likely succeed in aligning aid to Ukraine, but it is unlikely they will be able to provide it in the required volume, Yeremina pointed out. According to the expert, specific agreements on large-scale deliveries will be delayed until the next budget cycle: 2028 and beyond.
According to Bloomberg, Germany may send part of its Patriot stockpiles to Ukraine. However, the possibilities are limited because the US military operation against Iran has reduced American stockpiles, which are used to replenish European arsenals. "Germany is closely coordinating its actions with its NATO partners to ensure that the summit in Ankara sends yet another strong signal of support for Ukraine," the German embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.
Izvestia: EU is resisting opponents of sanctions against Russia
The EU plans to reach a compromise on the 21st sanctions package against Russia by the July 13 meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council. The urgency is partly due to Ireland’s upcoming assumption of the rotating presidency. However, the new list of restrictions contains nothing fundamentally new: it mainly involves adding banks, ships, and individuals in the blacklists. Experts believe the sanctions will not have a significant effect on the Russian economy.
Brussels has intensified pressure on countries that do not support the sanctions policy against Russia. In particular, Slovakia has already taken a stance on this matter, Lubos Blaha, deputy head of the ruling SMER (Direction - Social Democracy) party, told Izvestia. "The geopolitical context is forcing our coalition government to make certain compromises: it has decided not to block the sanctions as long as they do not harm Slovakia’s economic and energy interests," the politician emphasized. At the same time, Blaha noted that "the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions are hypocritical, contradict the spirit of international law, and ultimately do more harm to Europe than to Russia."
Bulgaria, where Rumen Radev, who is considered pro-Russian, recently assumed office, is also under pressure. The EU will put pressure on Sofia to force it to change its position on the 21st sanctions package, Petar Volgin, a Bulgarian member of the European Parliament, told Izvestia. "All permissible means - and, of course, impermissible ones - will be used to prevent Bulgaria from deviating from Brussels’ line," the lawmaker noted.
The Europeans may indeed accelerate efforts now that Ireland has assumed the presidency of the EU Council on July 1 and has made support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia its priorities. Holding the presidency allows a country, among other things, to shape the agenda for meetings. However, the previous holder of the EU Council presidency, Cyprus, was not particularly eager to push for new sanctions. They were often delayed because public opinion on the island leans toward Russia, Financial University associate professor Vadim Trukhachev emphasized. According to him, if disagreements persist, a decision on the 21st sanctions package will be postponed until September. In that case, EU diplomats will have time until the fall to convince the most vocal opponents.
Media: Russia nears return to international sports
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) Executive Board has published its long-awaited decision to reinstate Russia, which had been temporarily suspended from the organization on October 12, 2023, for "violating the territorial integrity" of Ukraine's National Olympic Committee. Although all ambiguous legal issues were settled by late 2024, the IOC commission deemed it appropriate to consider them a year and a half later.
Nevertheless, this is an important step toward lifting sanctions against Russian sports, though many remain in effect. There is still no clear decision from Lausanne regarding the return of the Russian flag, participation in team sports, or hosting international competitions on Russian soil. Moreover, it is unclear if this new reality will encourage international federations to continue the process of Russia's full return to individual sports.
"It’s great that the IOC has sent this signal, but let’s not get our hopes up," former world boxing champion and State Duma lawmaker Nikolay Valuyev told Izvestia. "It’s a back-and-forth situation. I think it’s too early to bring out the celebratory flags. Let’s treat this as a practical issue," he said.
"Things have finally started moving forward, which is a good sign," Honored USSR figure skating coach Tatyana Tarasova pointed out. "We’ll see what happens next. Will the federations listen? Of course they will! They have no other choice. It’s long past time to lift the restrictions. We earned the right to compete, but it was taken from us even though there are no such rules. It’s time to leave us alone," she noted.
In turn, International Boxing Association (IBA) President Umar Kremlev wrote in a statement to Kommersant that "the IOC had no choice but to lift the restrictions and acknowledge its mistakes."
According to sports manager Andrey Mitkov, the IOC’s statements "sound good, but it’s still better to refrain from celebration for now due to the caveats and established practice." "Declarations often differ from reality. Everything is decided within specific organizations by specific people ahead of specific competitions. We see many examples where these recommendations are essentially ignored," he noted.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russian crude prices return to pre-Iran-US conflict levels
The price of Russian Urals crude oil had reached $116 per barrel as recently as April but has since dropped by more than half (55%) following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade of which had restricted access for oil from the Persian Gulf countries to the global market.
According to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, the decline in the price of Russian oil on export markets is a consequence of an actual rise in the global supply of oil. In turn, Freedom Global leading analyst Natalia Milchakova told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that Urals prices could continue to fall if US sanctions are tightened, causing importers to demand deeper discounts.
Andrianov noted that a further significant drop in Urals prices is unlikely because the bottom has already been reached. The current price of $41.66 per barrel is below the EU's price cap of $44. In a sense, this shields Russian supplies from further price declines. After all, European and UK shipowners and insurers can now legally transport Russian crude without fear of sanctions.
Andrianov pointed out that Russian crude remains highly attractive to buyers. Physical export volumes are more likely to grow. Therefore, Russia will increase its exports to the Asian market and successfully compete on price. Moreover, the situation regarding the ceasefire between the US and Iran is uncertain. According to Milchakova, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have begun to rise again due to Iranian attacks on tankers passing through the strait, as well as threats by Yemeni Houthis to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the water passage from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean for tankers transiting the Suez Canal.
Andrianov shares a similar opinion. If a new round of escalation begins in the Persian Gulf, which the expert considers quite likely, global prices will rise and demand for Russian crude will increase sharply. Accordingly, the price of Urals crude will rise, he noted.
Vedomosti: French politician Marine Le Pen’s sentence eased, allowing her to run for president
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld the right of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party, to stand in the 2027 presidential election. The trial court's earlier verdict was amended during a new trial following Le Pen’s appeal. In spring 2025, Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison, a 100,000-euro fine, and a five-year ban on holding elected office. However, she was given a 15-month ban on participating in elections, effective March 31, 2025. Thus, Le Pen will be able to take part in next year’s presidential election.
The politician has run for president of France three times. In 2017 and 2022, she finished in second place, trailing only France’s incumbent president Emmanuel Macron. If she is unable to participate in the election, Le Pen has made contingency plans to be replaced by Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old president of the National Rally party.
However, it is impossible to run a campaign while wearing an electronic ankle monitor, as stipulated by the court’s sentence. Therefore, it is likely that Le Pen will drop her presidential ambitions in favor of Bardella, Alexey Chikhachev, associate professor in the European Studies Department at the St. Petersburg State University, noted. Le Pen’s decision to campaign while carrying a criminal record and wearing an ankle monitor is morally difficult and will have a mixed effect on the electorate’s sentiment. Some voters will be influenced by the National Rally’s mobilizing rhetoric and support Le Pen as a "new Joan of Arc." Bardella is, in principle, a ready replacement for Le Pen; however, he is too young and inclined to making mistakes. Moreover, Le Pen is a charismatic leader who promotes a rhetoric of defending the broad masses, whereas Bardella is a more systematic politician who is better at building relationships with the upper levels of society, Chikhachev stressed.
Le Pen appears more dangerous to the French political establishment than Bardella, Russian Financial University associate professor Vadim Trukhachev pointed out. For example, on the issue of relations with Russia, Bardella holds a position in line with the EU average. The National Rally leader is not overtly anti-Russian, but he is willing to support Ukraine to the same extent as Macron. Moreover, opponents of the National Rally have not abandoned hope of splitting the party, which already has several factions, with Bardella and Le Pen belonging to different wings.
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