MOSCOW, August 8. /TASS/. Russian forces push back against Ukrainian incursion in Kursk; US, Australia close in on deal to make missiles together; and Global South countries look to cool down situation in Middle East before it grows out of control. These stories topped Thursday's newspaper headlines in Russia.
Izvestia: Russia ramps up defense against Ukrainian advances in Kursk
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin decried Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk Region as a large-scale provocation. The chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, reported to the president that the incursion of Ukrainian troops into Russia’s borderline region had been stopped as he assured Putin that the operation in the Kursk Region will be completed, resulting in the defeat of Ukrainian troops and securing of the Russian state border. On Wednesday evening, a state of emergency was declared in the region. The acting governor said the situation in areas near the state border remained tenuous.
Also on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow urged the international community to condemn what it described as crimes being committed by the Kiev regime against peaceful Russian citizens.
The West’s reaction was predictable. Peter Stano, the European Commission’s Lead Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said the EU continued to "fully support Ukraine’s legitimate right to defend itself." The US Department of State said that it was in contact with Ukraine to learn the objectives behind Kiev’s incursion and that Washington supported Ukraine’s "common sense" actions. Moreover, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Ukraine’s actions in the Kursk Region were "not a violation of our policy."
In attacking the Kursk Region, Ukraine is trying to create some good PR for itself, military expert Viktor Litovkin told Izvestia. "They are doing this to create some buzz that they are pushing into the Kursk Region or that they may seize the local nuclear power plant or the gas pumping station in Sudzha. They are seeking to deal a material blow to Russia’s image to make up for their failures on the frontline," he explained.
Military expert Vladislav Shurygin agrees that the Ukrainians are trying to give the outward appearance of an army that is capable of winning in order to protract the conflict. "This cold-blooded offensive that Ukraine launched is a PR play," he noted.
Vedomosti: US, Australia team up to produce long-range missiles
The United States and Australia are getting closer to reaching agreement on joint production of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) and the next-generation, long-range Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced following 2+2 talks in Annapolis involving the US and Australian defense and diplomacy chiefs, Reuters reported.
While the GMLRS, which Ukraine has been receiving since 2022, has a range of up to 80 km, the longer-range PrSM can be used for strikes at a distance of over 500 km. The US Army reported receiving the first PrSm in December following successful trials.
In addition, Austin said, the United States is increasing the presence of its rotational forces in Australia, including bomber deployments. At a joint press conference, the US defense chief also described China as a threat to the US and Australian vision of a free and open Indo Pacific.
The joint production of weapons by the United States and Australia will not affect the balance of power in the region, nor does it pose an immediate threat to China, Ilya Kramnik, researcher with the Center for Strategic Planning Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti. At the same time, the United States is increasingly involving Australia in its anti-China bloc as it seeks to set up joint production to slash its own costs, he maintained.
In an effort to segment its weapons production, the United States is embracing joint projects with Australia and other countries, senior researcher at the Institute of US and Canadian Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences Igor Shkrobtak explained. According to him, apart from the strategic goal of containing China, this latest deal with Australia is aimed at giving US weapons producers a leg up on the Australian market, where they have long been competing against France.
Izvestia: Global South seeks to ease Middle East tensions
The Global South has intensified diplomacy to prevent the conflict in the Middle East from escalating uncontrollably, for escalation could cause energy price turbulence, unleash waves of refugees or lead to a humanitarian crisis, experts told Izvestia.
On August 7, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) top diplomats met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the situation in the region. Prior to that, Russia, China and a number of other countries urged Tehran to show restraint in separate calls. While there is a general understanding that Iran will respond to the assassination of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh on its soil by Israel, there are no specific timelines, despite speculation that it may take place on Thursday or Friday. "Tehran will respond at the right time and in an appropriate manner," the acting Iranian foreign minister told the OIC meeting in Jeddah. Obviously, there will be a military response.
Meanwhile, all actors on the international stage agree that nobody will benefit from another escalation that risks spinning out of control. Not a single regional player wants a full-blown war, mostly proceeding from their personal interests, Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out, for a large-scale conflict may spike oil and gas prices. "Given the military operation Israel is currently conducting in the Gaza Strip, expanding the conflict to include Hezbollah or even Iran would have very serious consequences. It could perhaps create millions of refugees and the region could become the site of a humanitarian crisis," the expert said.
Only one country is seeking to resolve the conflict militarily, and that is Israel, experts say. "Israel is looking for a military solution, but it is alone, <…> and one cannot wage a major war alone, so it might need a partner who would need the same for intra-and extra-political reasons, too," Timofey Bordachev, program director of the international Valdai Discussion Club, told Izvestia.
"Israel will hardly risk a larger war, in particular a large ground offensive in southern Lebanon without clear support from Washington. Therefore, these calls target all potential parties to a possible conflict," Kortunov added.
Kommersant: European gas prices surge amid clashes in Kursk Region
Speculation that Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine may be halted amid the hostilities in the Kursk Region have caused a surge in European gas prices.
The Sudzha gas pumping station with a daily capacity of 42 mln cubic meters of natural gas is the lone gas transit route from Russia to Western and Central Europe via Ukraine. Gazprom Spokesman Sergey Kupryanov said that on Wednesday Russia continued to pump as much gas to Europe using the Ukrainian corridor as in the previous days. The Ukrainian gas transit system operator said the Sudzha gas pumping station was operating normally.
Independent expert Alexander Sobko said that gas transits via Ukraine account for around 4.5% of all gas consumption across Europe, with Hungary, Slovakia and Austria being major importers and Italy being a smaller buyer. Some Russian gas could be partially rerouted to the TurkStream pipeline if Ukrainian gas transit via Sudzha is halted, he said.
Meanwhile, market players told Kommersant that while a potential halt to the transit of Russian gas via the Sudzha station may inconvenience European consumers, the situation would be far from critical. Still, Austria and Hungary would feel it. While a potential force majeure would push up gas prices, the potential spike would not rival 2022’s, when Russia-Ukraine hostilities began and sanctions tightened, they argue.
Vedomosti: Forecasts have Russia dominating LNG market by 2050
Russian gas exports could rise almost three-fold by 2050, and the country could see a 59% rise in coal exports, while its oil sales could rise by 3.8% compared to last year’s volumes, according to materials drafted by the Energy Ministry for its Energy Strategy 2050. Vedomosti has gotten a glimpse at some target indicators.
Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman views the ministry’s forecasts for the production and exports of natural gas, especially LNG, as "quite optimistic." While he expects pipeline gas exports to increase at the expense of China, Central Asia and perhaps Iran, the ministry’s LNG export forecast means that Russia would meet more than 50% of all new global demand, all this amid increased competition on the market of late, the expert said. As the United States, Qatar, Canada and a number of other suppliers have announced plans to increase LNG production, the market could see a surplus, he explained.
Head of Consulting at Neft Research Alexander Kotov, too, finds the Energy Ministry’s oil and gas production and export forecasts as being very bold, citing issues with LNG technology and icebreaker tankers. He also doubts the country would reach its coal export target, since the largest consumers, namely China and India, are looking to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon imports and increase their own production instead.
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