MOSCOW, July 23. /TASS/. US Vice President Kamala Harris faces a tough road to the White House; Ukraine’s struggles have Zelensky changing his tune; and the Israeli premier has set off on his first visit to US since the start of the Gaza war. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Can Kamala Harris win US presidential election?
After dropping out of the presidential race, US President Joe Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the new Democratic nominee. However, Biden’s withdrawal does not automatically give her the nomination. Harris will have to secure the support of the majority of delegates at the Democratic National Convention (DNC). If she fails, there will be another round of voting, which will also involve top Democratic superdelegates, Vedomosti notes.
At this point, odds are that Harris will be the one to succeed Biden in the election campaign, Yevgeny Minchenko, head of Minchenko Consulting, said. But her nomination isn’t a slam dunk yet, Grigory Yarygin, associate professor with the Department for American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, noted. Inside the Democratic Party, deliberations continue, and the expert did not rule out that other candidates could be considered, namely former first lady Michelle Obama.
If Harris is able to wade through all the ambiguity and get the nomination, she will do battle with Republican candidate Donald Trump. To help her odds, Harris will have to pick the right VP, Yarygin points out. The Axios media outlet has pegged Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as the most likely to be tapped. Both represent swing states, which will be crucial for deciding the next president. "Trump still has an advantage but with a younger Democratic candidate and as the vote draws near, it may dwindle," Yarygin emphasized.
Democratic states are highly likely to support Harris, but, as always, the main battle will be for voters in swing states, Pavel Sharikov, head of the Center for Applied Research at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of USA and Canada, told Izvestia.
American historian and former Harvard University lecturer Vladimir Brovkin believes there is a high degree of probability that Kamala Harris will eventually get the Democratic presidential nomination. "Moreover, this will be the most legitimate option because she was part of the same election platform as Biden," Brovkin noted.
Izvestia: Zelensky puts talks with Putin back on table in surprise move
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has made some rather surprising statements in a recent interview, notably moving away from some of his previous positions. First, he did not rule out direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even though he signed a decree two years ago which bans such negotiations. Second, he said that the hot phase of the armed conflict would end before the end of the year, while Ukraine would not be able to retake by force all the territories it considers its own, Izvestia writes.
There are several reasons behind this change of rhetoric, the main one being that the situation on the frontline is not getting any better for the Ukrainian armed forces. Conversely, the country’s social and economic situation continues to deteriorate as the mobilization campaign trudges on and power outages become more widespread. The changing US election landscape may also be playing a role in Zelensky’s change of heart, as Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances of winning have skyrocketed after the attempt on his life, while Trump has pledged to reconcile Russia and Ukraine immediately after winning the election.
Political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council on Inter-Ethnic Relations, believes that it’s the depletion of Ukrainian resources that has Zelensky changing his tune. The number of men fit for military service is declining in Ukraine, while Western weapons supplies aren’t enough to offset these losses. "Apparently, Zelensky has taken a lay of the land and come to the conclusion that Ukraine is facing the threat of a collapse and more territorial losses," the analyst said.
Political scientist Mikhail Pavliv, in turn, points that Zelensky’s team has been working to get on the GOP’s good side in recent months. "After Biden’s debate debacle and the assassination attempt on Trump, it became clear that the next White House administration will be Republican. That is why we are witnessing changes at the public level, too. Top Ukrainian officials are trying to synchronize their rhetoric with that of the potential winner of the US presidential election," the expert explained. He says that Zelensky has reason to worry about where things stand. "I am sure that the idea is brewing among Kiev officials that the incumbent Ukrainian leader has to step down after Biden’s withdrawal from the election race and that the country needs someone new to hold talks with Russia. However, we won’t see any changes unless the West gives the go-ahead because there are no independent players left among Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs," Pavliv said.
Media: Israeli PM heads to US for first time since start of Gaza war
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set off on a visit to the US for the first time since the Gaza Strip war began in October 2023. His visit comes on the heels of US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, Vedomosti notes.
In mid-July, Biden announced a framework deal on a ceasefire and the liberation of hostages held by the Palestinian movement Hamas. Both parties to the conflict tentatively agreed with the plan. However, thus far there have been no announcements about any concrete agreements. Besides, there is still a risk of escalation between Israel and the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah on the border with Lebanon, as well as with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are Iran’s allies.
Netanyahu’s visit to Washington was in the pipeline even before Biden decided to drop out of the race, said Lyudmila Samarskaya, researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. According to her, regardless of who takes the White House, Israel will lean on the US for support.
The United States’ Middle East policy will not change during the election campaign, Lev Sokolshchik, senior researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, stressed. Both the current administration and Republican hopeful Donald Trump’s team are focused on winning the election at the moment so it’s important for them to prevent any serious escalation that could have a negative impact on the campaign. However, in Sokolshchik’s words, US positions in the Middle East are increasingly weakening and Israel, seeing the situation, is becoming more bold in achieving its own goals in the region. According to Samarskaya, Israel will continue to carry out strikes on the areas from where it believes it faces threats.
Meanwhile, chances are that the Democrats will want to use Biden in order to make some unpopular decisions, primarily, with regard to Israel, Grigory Lukyanov, researcher with the Center of Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He explained that restricting the flow of US weapons supplies to Israel was the only way to influence the Jewish state. There is no consensus on the issue within the Democratic Party but it’s important to note that left-leaning voters usually sympathize with the Palestinians more than with Israel, the analyst noted. The expert emphasizes that the political leader who makes the decision to impose bans on Israel will take a big hit in the reputation department in the eyes of the Israeli leadership but since Biden no longer plans to seek re-election, he has little to lose in this regard.
Vedomosti: EU demand for cheaper Russian fertilizers rises sharply
Russian companies increased fertilizer exports to European Union countries 1.7-fold year-on-year between January and May 2024, Vedomosti writes, citing data from the European Statistical Office (Eurostat). Poland, France, Germany and Italy were the largest buyers of Russian fertilizers in the reporting period.
European restrictions on Russia don’t apply to fertilizers. However, the EU has imposed personal sanctions against a number of Russian businessmen involved in fertilizer production, as well as against the senior management of companies in the industry. Besides, Russian fertilizer supplies to the EU are negatively affected by sanctions in the fields of logistics, insurance and finance.
Still, Russian fertilizers are cheaper than the products of European manufacturers, the main factor boosting exports, experts point out. The advantage of Russian companies stems from low production costs and, consequently, high competitiveness, Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy director at the Finam investment company, said. Sergey Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating agency, agrees that European fertilizer manufacturers - except for Norway’s Yara - couldn’t compete with Russian producers in terms of production costs even before the energy crisis that broke out in the EU in 2021. Now, Russia’s advantage is even more tangible, he said.
Kabakov believes that stable demand for fertilizers on the global market supports their prices. The price of fertilizers at the Baltic ports may grow in the coming months, making it possible for Russian companies to increase production and exports, the analyst added.
Mark Boichuk, head of practice projects for agriculture and the consumer sector at the Strategy Partners consulting company, says that had the EU abandoned Russian fertilizer imports, it would have pushed agricultural prices up and eventually forced Europe to import agricultural products, particularly from Russia.
Izvestia: German government declines to comment on probe into Nord Stream blasts
Berlin has no intention of announcing the interim results of its investigation into the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions, the German government said in a statement to a request from parliament members, obtained by Izvestia. The document admits that the German authorities "did not provide special security" for the gas pipelines before they were blown up. However, Berlin is still reluctant to cooperate with Moscow.
The pipeline explosions took place on September 26, 2022. The Office of the German Federal Prosecutor launched an investigation into the incident on October 10, 2022; Denmark and Sweden followed suit with their own probes later that year.
Earlier, Denmark wrapped up its investigation, citing a lack of grounds for a criminal case. Sweden did the same. In response to a request from Bundestag members, the German government claimed that a the investigation had hit a snag, unable to identify any obvious suspects.
Judging by the answers that the Alternative for Germany party received, the government assumes, among other things, that Russia could have allegedly been involved in the act of sabotage, Bundestag member Yevgeny Schmidt said. Berlin’s goal is to save the Americans and the Ukrainians from facing the blame, he explained. "In this case, the government is trying to switch the focus from the actual perpetrator," he noted.
The German government is aware that Russia is not responsible for the explosions, Bundestag member Steffen Kotre told the newspaper. He believes that some Ukrainian forces had a hand in what happened but they could not have done it alone and there was some power behind them. However, Germany is choosing to sweep all this under the rug.
According to prominent US journalist Seymour Hersh, it’s the US government that was behind the act of sabotage. He says that the Biden administration blew up the pipelines out of fear that Washington might lose its influence on Europe, namely on Germany. Besides, Hersh argues that Norway also had a motive in the blasts as it received additional opportunities to increase gas supplies to Western Europe. Russia has also pointed to the potential involvement of US intelligence agencies in the incident.
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