MOSCOW, June 27. /TASS/. Defense chiefs of Russia, US chat following Sevastopol attack; NATO appoints Dutch Rutte as its next boss; and Taiwan looking to renew dialogue with China. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Can Russia, US reduce tension following Sevastopol attack?
Experts interviewed by Izvestia view Tuesday’s telephone conversation between Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov and Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin as a positive sign showing that communication between the two nuclear powers is not completely severed. However, they don’t expect any thaw in Moscow-Washington relations for now, especially in the wake of the recent missile attack on Sevastopol that Russia blamed on the United States. It is this incident that might have prompted the call with a view to reducing tensions and avoiding a direct confrontation between the two countries.
Belousov and Austin held what became the first conversation between the two countries’ defense chiefs in some time two days after Ukraine attacked Sevastopol using US-provided ATACMS missiles. The next day, on June 26, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the call initiated by the United States focused on the situation in Ukraine.
The conversation indicates that Washington has its finger on the pulse here to prevent things from escalating "to a nuclear conflict," said French political analyst Eric Denece, who heads the CF2R think tank. "The Pentagon is keeping a close eye on this. However, you see a lot of incongruity from the Americans, as in their country, power is not concentrated in one place. But there are different poles who have been trying to impose their thinking on others, with neoconservatives willing to go much further and continue to provoke Russia," he explained.
Vasily Klimov, researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia: "This conversation is important both for maintaining further contacts between [the two countries’] defense agencies and for preventing any escalation in the special military operation zone." It is known that the United States keeps supplying its weapons to Ukraine, but, as the US side has stated, the US military has no intention to engage in combat in Ukraine directly, he added. "Hence, I think this was more than a routine call," the expert underscored.
Media: Dutch Rutte to be installed as NATO chief at next month’s bloc summit
On June 26, the North Atlantic Alliance approved Mark Rutte as the bloc’s next boss. He will replace Jens Stoltenberg on October 1. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe the appointment will not affect NATO’s policy course or its relations with Russia. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the selection would make little difference in NATO’s general policy line to try to suppress Russia strategically.
A Dutchman, Rutte has spent four consecutive terms at the helm of the Netherlands’ government starting in 2010. After February 2022, he called for imposing personal sanctions on Russian politicians. However, he insisted ahead of the recent Swiss conference on resolving the Ukraine conflict that Russia should be at the negotiating table.
Yegor Sergeyev, a senior researcher at the Center for European Studies at the Institute of International Studies of MGIMO, believes that, by selecting Rutte, the alliance seems to be seeking to show that its policy will not change. "And this policy will be articulated by a man with a reputation for being a cold yet sensible person who defends the values of Euro-Atlantic solidarity as he goes, while standing firm on his positions," he explained.
The expert does not expect any tweaks in NATO’s line, including because, to him, this appointment is a symbolic move. "The rhetoric of the Secretary General’s speeches may change a bit, but, let’s face it, his statements will have little bearing on military and political realities," Sergeyev maintained.
Federation Council Deputy Speaker Konstantin Kosachev agreed as he described the decision to replace Stoltenberg with Rutte as "a scene change" that will not affect the military bloc’s policy. "No matter how many faces come in and out of Brussels, it will have no effect on 'Europe’s No.1 problem' — the existence and unbridled expansion of NATO," Rossiyskaya Gazeta quoted Kosachev as saying. According to the senator, "without radical decisions on the security architecture (of the contour of security, as Russian President Vladimir Putin said), the existence of NATO makes threats and conflicts inevitable."
Izvestia: Taiwan mulling renewed dialogue with China
Taipei is considering reviving its official dialogue with Beijing, but it does not know where to start, a diplomat close to the situation told Izvestia, as Taiwan can neither declare independence nor reunite with mainland China.
In the event of an escalation, Taipei will look to external players to intervene. Among other things, Taiwan is concerned about Moscow’s stance. Russia, for one, could "cool the situation down" given its strong ties with Beijing. It’s worth mentioning that Moscow recognizes the One Country, Two Systems principle, describing Taiwan as an inseparable part of China. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Moscow’s position on Taiwan in a joint statement with Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued during Putin’s state visit to China on May 16-17.
Beijing views Taiwanese President Lai Ching Te as a maverick who categorically rejects dialogue, Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. "Should China decide to escalate the conflict, Russia would support it, say, by supplying goods in the event of anti-Chinese sanctions. But Moscow will not interfere in the conflict as it considers this China’s internal affair," he opined.
Meanwhile, the Chinese authorities for the first time threatened to impose the death penalty for separatists pushing for the island’s independence as they decided to upgrade the 2005 anti-secession law which gives Beijing the legal basis to prevent Taiwan’s secession from China.
The ratcheted-up tensions risk sinking relations across the Taiwan Strait to a new low indeed. And the tensions will rise, Jerome Keating, a political analyst who currently lives in Taiwan and taught at National Taipei University, told Izvestia. According to him, Taipei has even cautioned its residents against visiting mainland China.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Seoul weighing nuclear response to Pyongyang, Moscow
After Russia and North Korea signed their bilateral pact, the South’s government think tank recommended Seoul consider building its own nuclear arsenal. In a report, the National Institute for Security Strategies put forward a number of options, including the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons, nuke exchanges with partners following NATO’s playbooks and the development of its own "nuclear capabilities." The report sparked disputes in the media and among lawmakers.
Thus, MP Na Kyung Won, seen as a top contender to lead the ruling party, said the nuclear option is worth considering as, she insisted, only those countries who had the muscle to respond to an external threat survived.
While the Institute’s report is less emotional, its authors claim that the US move to recognize India as a nuclear power in 2008 could be a case in point for Russia and North Korea. In this light, Allison Hooker, who served on the National Security Council staff under former US President Donald Trump, said that deepening ties between Russia and North Korea may drive Seoul to take the nuclear path.
Alexander Vorontsov, head of the Department of Korean and Mongolian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta: "South Korean public and experts have long been discussing nuclear weapons, and there are forces who push this idea forward. But they do not tell the population about the potential consequences of such a step, for that would involve exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the potential imposition of sanctions on the country. So, opinion polls show a fairly high level of support for this idea. In January, [South Korean] President Yoon Suk Yeol said he did not rule out such a scenario, and he reaffirmed how secure US containment has been at a summit in Washington in April. Yoon took what the Americans told him to heart, as he promised that Seoul would not do anything to displease the United States and that it would remain its faithful ally."
Kommersant: Gazprom seeking foothold in Iranian gas market
Gazprom and National Iranian Gas Company have signed a strategic memorandum on Russian pipeline gas supplies to the Islamic republic. The document was signed during Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller’s visit to Iran, the Russian gas giant announced on Wednesday, without disclosing the route or volume of potential exports.
Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji told the Iranian media that Tehran is ready to move toward signing a relevant contract with Moscow soon and that the country’s infrastructure will be ready to accept Russian gas.
According to Yevgenia Popova at Impement, Iran needs 3-4 bln cubic metric of natural gas annually for domestic consumption. However, she puts the total export potential at around 10 bln cubic meters given the existing infrastructure limitations. Among other routes, Gazprom may consider pumping gas via Azerbaijan or through the reverse line of its Central Asia - Center gas pipeline, the analyst said.
Gazprom is seeking not only to sell its gas to Iran, but also to export pipeline gas or LNG under swap contracts to other markets, she added. And it may revive projects that have been announced or worked on before. These include a number of LNG projects in southern Iran or projects to build a gas pipeline to India via Pakistan, the analyst concluded.
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