MOSCOW, June 22. /TASS/. EU member states finally green-light bloc’s 11th package of sanctions on Russia; Kazakhstan bows out of hosting further meetings on Syria settlement; and Putin pledges further work for developing Russia’s nuclear triad. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: EU members finally agree on 11th set of anti-Russian sanctions
On Wednesday, representatives of EU member states green-lighted the bloc’s 11th package of sanctions on Russia, the representation of Sweden, which currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, reported on Twitter. Among other things, the latest restrictions forbid transit via Russia of an expanded list of goods and technology, close down the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, and add a further 70 individuals and 30 legal entities to the list of those banned from the EU, with their assets being frozen, Andrzej Sados, Poland’s permanent representative to the bloc, told reporters.
Although the 11th package of sanctions will harm Russia, it cannot be viewed as a shock, noted Ivan Timofeyev, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council. With each new set of restrictions, the added value they bring in the form of damage to Russia is that much diminished, and thus no one should expect the latest package of sanctions to produce any new effect, he argued. To Timofeyev, the EU can indefinitely tighten export controls or expand its blacklist of persons, but sanctions will not be of much use anyway. "As for oil, restrictions here damage both Russia, which has already accepted the loss of the European market, and the EU itself. Brussels will have to compensate for the damage to those countries that secured waivers to continue buying Russian energy," the expert told Vedomosti.
Croatian Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Ivan Vilibor Sincic, a member of the delegation to the EU-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, told Izvestia that the policy being pursued by the EU would have an extremely negative effect on Europeans. "The ill-conceived and incomprehensible decisions by bureaucrats in Brussels will only harm the EU itself and its citizens, who will have the most expensive commodities and food in the world due to higher logistics costs," he lamented.
Even in spite of this, the EU will stubbornly continue to pursue its "zealous sanctions spree," French MEP Thierry Mariani told Izvestia. "Meanwhile, the EU now looks like a weak institution that is being blackmailed by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and dictated to by Washington. Third countries, annoyed by our diplomatic pressure, will be looking for alternative economic partnerships while pushing back against EU attempts to interfere in their internal affairs. We can see clearly now that the EU has been morphing into a dilapidated organization," he said.
Vedomosti: Kazakhstan dodges Western disapproval, bows out of hosting meetings on Syria
The 20th Astana format meeting on Syria that concluded on Wednesday in the capital of Kazakhstan will be the last such meeting, Kazakh Deputy Foreign Minister Kanat Tumysh announced on June 21. The Kazakh-hosted meetings have been held with the participation of Russia, Iran and Turkey since 2017. Now that Syria is gradually exiting its regional isolation and is beginning its "return to the Arab family," these trends can be seen as signs that the platform "has accomplished its mission," the senior Kazakh diplomat explained.
According to their joint statement adopted on June 21, at the latest meeting the foreign ministries of Russia, Iran, Turkey and Kazakhstan discussed preparations for a roadmap to restore relations between Ankara and Damascus. Also, the four nations agreed that the presidents of Turkey, Iran and Russia would hold a summit on Syria on Russian soil later this year.
The Astana platform was vital in terms of its international status, but Kazakhstan no longer views that as a priority, Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti. According to the expert, this is rather an opportunistic decision for Kazakhstan that would not benefit Astana in the longer term. The authorities in Kazakhstan no longer find it convenient to host meetings aimed at achieving a reconciliation between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, who are both betes noire of the West, albeit to varying degrees, said Kirill Semyonov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council. The most likely driver for Astana bowing out is precisely the West’s irritation with the platform, and Kazakhstan may have either faced Western pressure or decided to pre-empt any such unpleasantness, he argued. The expert said the trilateral dialogue may continue at venues in Russia or elsewhere.
Negotiations on a peace settlement between Turkey and Syria have been ongoing since the end of 2022. By this June, two meetings of the Syrian and Turkish intel chiefs and defense ministers were held, and the two countries’ top diplomats met once. The talks should pave the way for a personal Erdogan-Assad meeting, but that has so far been hampered by Syria’s demand for Turkey to withdraw its troops from the Arab country’s north, where they have been deployed under the pretext of a Turkish offensive against the Syrian Kurds.
Izvestia: Putin pledges continuing efforts to develop Russia’s nuclear triad
Russia will continue developing its nuclear triad as a major guarantee of national security and global stability, Russian President Vladimir Putin told graduates of military universities and academies at a meeting on Wednesday. In addition, Russia will continue work on upgrading other weapons, including missile and aircraft systems, while factoring in lessons learned from the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine, Putin added.
According to the Russian head of state, about half of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces’ units and groupings are currently equipped with the latest Yars systems. In parallel, the troops are being rearmed with up-to-date systems carrying the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle.
"Our nuclear forces are upgraded by about 90%," Dmitry Kornev, a military expert and MilitaryRussia.ru columnist, told Izvestia. Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces are being equipped with the latest systems, and work is ongoing to re-equip troops with mobile Yars systems, with a second regiment being equipped with the Avangard hypersonic systems, he said. The latter is unrivaled globally. By the end of 2023, a regiment equipped with the new Sarmat heavy missiles should enter combat duty, Kornev added.
Also, work is underway to develop new systems to replace the Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the expert said. The deployment of new missile systems is likely to begin in the middle of the decade. Meanwhile, the missile systems currently in service with the Russian Strategic Missile Forces are ranked No. 1 in the world in terms of their innovative features and strike power, Kornev maintained.
Vedomosti: Ukraine donors gather in London for post-hostilities reconstruction conference
Western participants in a conference on Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction pledged a large-scale financial package to Kiev. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said London would unlock $3 billion worth of World Bank loans to Ukraine. In addition, Great Britain will commit up to 250 million pounds sterling ($319 million) to Kiev, while German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Berlin would contribute 381 million euros ($418 million) in humanitarian assistance as she recalled that, last year, Germany gave Ukraine 16.8 billion euros, including military aid.
For its part, however, Ukraine demanded that the conference donors give more. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal insisted that Kiev would need $6.5 billion for infrastructure repairs in the coming year, while Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claims that Ukraine would need $600 billion to $800 billion. The World Bank gave a more modest estimate of what Ukraine needs: $411 billion, or a sum equivalent to 260% of Ukraine’s GDP.
Ukraine has not abandoned the idea of rebuilding the country at the expense of assets seized from Russia. According to Shmygal, Kiev has developed "a fair mechanism" for confiscating $500 billion from frozen Russian assets, although he did not elaborate further on the plan.
The West’s financial and economic assistance to Ukraine has been aimed at maintaining Kiev’s ability to resist the military and political pressure from Russia, says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS). "And yet, the current aid has not been enough to fully restore the country’s economic potential. So far, only the reconstruction of the [country’s] decimated transport and energy infrastructure has been provided for," he told Vedomosti. On the other hand, he maintained, major European countries have been pursuing their own interests by supporting Kiev economically. "European companies are seeking to take part in efforts to rebuild Ukraine, as these projects will help them secure new orders for their industries," the expert explained.
Commenting on the technical aspects of transferring frozen Russian funds to any Ukraine reconstruction program, Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Investment, argued that it would be impossible to do so, given the specific features of the financial system. "Any campaign [to use seized Russian reserves to finance reconstruction projects] would imply the collapse of the entire system of international financial relations that was established after the Second World War," the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Why France’s Macron seeks to attend BRICS summit in South Africa
Whether French President Emmanuel Macron will be invited to the BRICS summit in South Africa in August may be decided in the next few days, as Paris will host an international summit for a new global financing pact on June 22-23.
While South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has not yet sent any official invitation to his French counterpart, the majority of BRICS members have not rushed to weigh in on Macron’s potential attendance. China was an exception though, as it conveyed Beijing’s positive perception of such an invitation. Meanwhile, Russia has refrained from giving any highly charged assessments of the potential appearance of the French leader in South Africa. However, experts say, Moscow has no special reasons to object to it. Valeria Gorbacheva of the Higher School of Economics (HSE University) said South Africa would likely be more interested in Latin American or major African countries as partners, whereas France is definitely not in the forefront. "But Russia will certainly not be against [such an invitation], as that would send too strong a signal to the United States," the expert said.
Timofey Bordachev of the Valdai Discussion Club agrees. "All of the BRICS member states are interested in seeing Europe distance itself somehow from the United States. This is not working out very well, but everybody is still hopeful [for such a turn of events], and neither China, nor Russia nor India has abandoned such hopes. The arrival of Macron would show many countries, at least symbolically, that Europe is not just a faithful territorial base for US military interests, but that it has also been trying to wiggle [out of that straightjacket]," the political analyst said. And this, he believes, would be a pretty good result for the entire BRICS group, as it would show the US’ inability to control its allies.
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