MOSCOW, April 24. /TASS/. Germany and Russia engage in tit-for-tat expulsions of large numbers of each other’s diplomats; Hungary sets up roadblocks to Ukraine’s NATO membership bid; and senior US diplomat goes on tour of Central Asia, but US unlikely to edge Russia and China out from region. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Berlin sparks tit-for-tat spat with Moscow after spate of diplomatic expulsions
Germany and Russia are engaged in expelling dozens of diplomats in a tit-for-tat manner. The expulsions, initiated by Berlin, were slammed as another act of hostility by the Russian Foreign Ministry, Vedomosti notes.
This is not the first expulsion of Russian diplomats from Germany, said Artyom Sokolov, a researcher with the European Studies Institute at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University). According to the expert, such decisions do not require any special reason in the current situation as Russian-German relations continue to deteriorate. Berlin’s move to expel a large number of Russian diplomats is likely to further reduce the level of intergovernmental relations. The analyst believes that neither the German Foreign Ministry nor the country’s cabinet in general is prepared to engage in a constructive dialogue with Russia.
The mutual expulsions mark another stage in the ongoing deterioration of the already sour relationship between Russia and Germany, said Alexander Kamkin, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. The expert points out that cultural exchanges between Russia and Germany in fact no longer exist, while joint programs have been reduced to a minimum, and student exchanges have been almost completely frozen. Moreover, Germany’s opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party has even called for a complete ban on the issuance of visas to Russian nationals. However, in Kamkin’s opinion, Russia will attempt to the last to prevent any further reductions in the staffing of each country’s respective diplomatic mission in the other for as long as possible. Still, the prospects for Russian-German relations look rather pitiful, especially given that the two major cabinet portfolios - the economy and diplomacy - are controlled by the Greens, who are vehemently anti-Russian, the expert emphasized.
"Take note that the German government is being extremely cautious in its comments on the expulsion of Russian diplomats. Clearly, Chancellor Olaf Scholz would like to avoid adding fuel to the fire," German political scientist Alexander Rahr told Kommersant. "Perhaps, there were some discussions in the federal government about how advisable the new [round of] expulsion[s] was as it would inevitably lead to another round of tensions. However, the irreconcilable position of Ms. Baerbock (German Foreign Minister and Bundestag member for the Greens - TASS) was what eventually prevailed," the expert added.
Izvestia: Hungary continues to oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership bid
Budapest is not eager to see Ukraine as a NATO member, particularly because of the position of ethnic Hungarians living in Ukraine. Experts believe that Kiev is unlikely to join the bloc because it would have a devastating worldwide impact, Izvestia writes.
Budapest remains one of the most ardent opponents of further NATO expansion. Dora Duro, vice chairperson of Hungary's parliament, told the newspaper that NATO’s own rules made it impossible for Kiev to join the alliance for as long as Ukraine’s borders remained in dispute and an armed conflict was underway. The only way to avoid the risk of war in terms of Ukraine’s membership is for Russia to approve it in a relevant agreement, Duro added.
Budapest’s position stems from the desire to prevent a major conflict on the European continent, said Vitaly Danilov, associate professor in the Department of the Theory and History of International Relations at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN). Another important reason why Budapest does not really want to see Kiev among its NATO allies is the situation for ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine.
Experts are confident that Kiev should not be expected to join NATO anytime soon. "There are deep divisions among member states. And it’s no wonder, since Ukraine’s NATO membership would serve to accelerate military activities and expand the conflict," noted Vasily Klimov, junior research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. According to him, only "the hotheads" in Poland and the Baltic states wish to see this, while such players as the United States and Germany consider providing military supplies to Kiev to be enough.
Danilov believes that Kiev seeks to join NATO as soon as possible because Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and his circle see accession to the North Atlantic Alliance as the only available lifeline for remaining in power after Russia’s special military operation is completed. However, key NATO countries are well aware that military confrontation with Russia would lead to the destruction of Western civilization and perhaps even the planet. So, they will keep "selling" the idea of EU and NATO membership to Zelensky in order to continue fueling the standoff with Moscow, but will never actually move to make the idea a reality, Danilov concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US unable to fully take place of Russia, China in Central Asia
US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu has set off on a tour of Central Asian countries. In Bishkek, he will discuss economic and freedom of speech issues. In Dushanbe, Lu plans to pay attention to boosting the US-Tajik partnership and security issues, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
In the meantime, Kyrgyzstan and Russia are about to complete procedures to confirm an agreement on the creation of a joint air defense system, which was signed in the summer of 2022. Military expert Viktor Litovkin stressed that it would be Russia that would provide military equipment to Kyrgyzstan, although the US had plans to bring the country up to NATO standards. "A joint air defense system will make it possible to enhance the security of not only Kyrgyzstan but also of the entire region. <...> If Moscow provides S-300 and S-400 systems, which have a range of 600 kilometers, it would be possible to protect the airspace of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan from Kyrgyzstan. The strengthening of Russia’s positions in Central Asia clearly irritates the Americans," the expert noted. He added that Russian military personnel will maintain the advanced hardware provided to Kyrgyzstan, leaving no place for the Americans in Central Asia.
Experts point out that Lu’s visit to the region comes ahead of the China-Central Asia summit slated for May 18. Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, notes that the US would like to use Central Asia as a springboard against both Russia and China. "However, their instrumental approach is limited. It is about refraining from spending much while using ‘soft power,’ including non-governmental organizations, lobbyists and officials trained by [the US], in order to make life difficult for Russia and China with regard to cooperation with Central Asian nations on joint projects and in other fields," he said.
According to the expert, the US has no plans to lend stability to the situation in the region. The United States cannot fully take the place of Russia and China in the region in terms of investment, trade or migration issues. Clearly, neither Kyrgyzstan nor Tajikistan will wind down their cooperation with Russia because it is a question of their security.
Izvestia: Russia upgrading Navy flagship to ramp up firepower
Work is underway to increase the combat capabilities of the Russian Navy’s aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetzov. Unique Pantsir-M weapons systems, combined in an integrated air defense system, will protect it from airstrikes, Izvestia writes, citing Defense Ministry sources. In addition, storage space for advanced aircraft munitions - guided bombs and cruise missiles - has been set up on board the ship. Su-33 and MiG-29 planes of the Admiral Kuznetsov’s air wing will be able to use such ordnance. Experts say that such an upgrade will enhance the safety and combat capabilities of the Russian Navy’s flagship.
The Admiral Kuznetsov’s air defenses currently consist of four launchers of the Kinzhal missile system, which can simultaneously fire at four targets at a distance of up to 12 kilometers and an altitude of up to six kilometers. Additionally, the ship’s air defenses also include eight Kortik anti-aircraft missile and artillery systems with a range of up to eight kilometers. The Pantsir-M, which will replace the older Kortik systems, is capable of hitting targets at altitudes ranging from one meter to several dozen kilometers. It is an advanced system that has proven itself during the special military operation, military historian Dmitry Boltenkov said. "There are no better shipborne air defense systems at this point. As for new ammunition for the air wing, it will make the ship an ever more formidable force. In general, the upgrade of the cruiser is about replacing all of its systems with the most advanced ones," he added.
Another thing to note is that, this year, aviation units have begun to receive high-precision, long-range bombs capable of destroying ground targets and moving objects. "The special military operation has made it clear that glide bombs and advanced guided missiles are exactly what we need," Boltenkov noted. "The main thing is that aircraft can use them without entering the enemy’s air defense zone. That said, the aircraft carrier is capable of performing missions to hit surface and ground targets, and the operation range of its deck aircraft increases," the expert said.
Once the ship’s crew has been formed, it will undergo training and conduct all the necessary tests of the aircraft carrier, which is expected to re-enter combat service in the Navy in 2024.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: New Delhi, Moscow seeking avenues to detour around US restrictions
A delegation of Indian businessmen will arrive in Russia on Monday. Both countries are seeking to expand bilateral trade despite Western sanctions against Moscow. Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov visited New Delhi, where he discussed the topic of free trade, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
India’s imports to Russia more than quadrupled in the past financial year, mostly thanks to oil purchases. However, exports fell by almost 12% year on year. Exporters say that sales to Russia dropped, largely due to payment difficulties. As a result, there is an imbalance in trade between the two countries and Russia will simply have nowhere to spend the significant amount of Indian rupees that it is earning for its India-bound exports.
Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia group at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, points out that "bilateral trade stands roughly at $40 bln." "As much as $3 bln is what India exports to Russia, while the remaining $37 bln is what Russia exports to India. The deficit is around $34 bln, but the exact figures are still unknown. The makeup of the Indian delegation will make it clear in what areas the Indians plan to boost exports. However, it’s unclear what the payment mechanism will be," he added.
"It’s also unclear where Russia could spend the enormous amount of rupees [its exports are bringing in]. India can export components for motor vehicles and aircraft engines, as well as electronics, that is, high-tech goods, and, of course, medicines. However, this requires that Indian banks not create any obstacles," the expert noted.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has resolutely called for expanding economic ties with Russia. The expert, however, said: "Political life in India is different from that in Russia. In India, banks have no fear of the head of government."
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