MOSCOW, April 19. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visits Brazil, kicking off his tour of four Latin American nations aimed at strengthening ties; Washington opts for another round of tensions with Beijing amid secret "police station" scandal and simmering Taiwan troubles; and Moscow and New Delhi get busy rebuilding business ties against background of Western-led war of sanctions. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Lavrov tours Latin America with view to strengthening ties
Russia is prepared to hear out Brazil’s proposals for achieving peace in Ukraine, which would take Moscow’s interests into account, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, commenting on Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s plans to take part in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. The statement was made during Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s tour of Latin America, which kicked off in Brazil.
While in Brazil, Lavrov met with Lula and top diplomat Mauro Vieira. The parties discussed global political issues and agreed to interact within the United Nations, including on the UN Security Council, BRICS and the G20, as well as to coordinate the approaches of their respective foreign ministries. Beyond Brazil, Lavrov’s itinerary also includes Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba. The choice is not accidental, as these countries usually either vote against anti-Russian resolutions in the UN General Assembly or abstain from voting on them.
As far as foreign policy goes, Brazil is trying to take advantage of the current geopolitical situation, Lazar Kheifets, professor of American Studies at St. Petersburg State University’s Department of International Relations, points out. "Over the past decades, the country has been positioning itself as the leader of Latin America, seeking a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The Ukrainian crisis opens an additional window of opportunity for achieving these goals, while Western nations are facing reputational and financial damage," he said. According to the expert, the development of Russian-Brazilian relations is in the interest of both countries as Moscow is expanding its trade and economic ties with Latin America, and Russia’s rhetoric about the collapse of the unipolar world order is falling on sympathetic ears on the continent.
There is great potential for enhancing trade and economic ties between Russia and Latin America, said Nikolay Kalashnikov, an advisor to the director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Latin American Studies. "Russia has long been cooperating with these countries in the oil and gas sector," the expert noted. "Russian manufacturers can potentially offer heavy machinery and weapons to regional customers," he added.
Media: Washington opts for another round of tensions with Beijing
The scandal triggered by the discovery of a secret Chinese "police station" in New York and the arrest of two of its staff members should be seen as a sign marking the start of another round of tensions between Washington and Beijing. However, the incident is unlikely to lead to any reduction in the level of diplomatic relations, said experts interviewed by Izvestia.
The US authorities have charged a total of 44 people for various offenses related to attempts by China’s National Police to persecute Chinese nationals in the United States.
According to Andrey Ostrovsky, chief researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, "the only reason for the serious escalation of tensions between China and the US is that China has begun to outpace the US, thus pushing America out of its leading positions." The expert is confident that the current situation, including Taiwan-related tensions, would hardly lead to a reduction in or severance of diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, but tensions will persist until Taiwan’s elections, which are scheduled for January 2024.
The Chinese authorities are seeking to avoid conflict with the US, said Vitaly Danilov, program director of the Center for Applied Analysis of International Transformations at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia. Still, the US will continue to seek escalation, particularly by creating a regional hotbed of tension with the assistance of Taiwan and the AUKUS bloc. However, China is ready to take tough steps against the US over Taiwan in case any "red lines" are crossed. Such developments may even lead to an armed conflict, but that is unlikely to happen, Danilov noted.
The current revelations about clandestine Chinese "police stations" in the US stem from both US counterintelligence operations and the overall political context, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. According to him, US media outlets have long been aware that China uses its official offices in New York for gathering information from Chinese nationals residing in the US, but the story was addressed only after the balloon incident and China’s refusal to hold talks with the US secretary of state amid the rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow. Tensions should be expected to rise and sanctions to be tightened in the near future, Vasilyev concluded.
Kommersant: Moscow, New Delhi rebuilding business ties amid war of sanctions
The 24th meeting of the Russian-Indian Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and Cultural Cooperation has taken place in New Delhi after a five-year hiatus. Through cooperation with India, Moscow hopes to mitigate some of the problems stemming from Western sanctions. New Delhi, in turn, describes its partnership with Russia as one of the future drivers for India’s economic growth, Kommersant writes.
Having refused to join Western sanctions, India has gained the opportunity to purchase Russian oil at a big discount, and Russia has become the south Asian country’s leading oil exporter. However, the extensive growth of bilateral trade, triggered by radical changes in the market situation, has produced new challenges that both countries must now face. Russia needs to figure out how to use the Indian rupees it is earning from oil exports, while India is uncomfortable with the imbalance in trade relations with Russia as it buys more than it sells.
"Critics of Russia’s pivot to the East point to India and China, arguing that [Moscow’s] policy aimed at weaning itself off of dollar dependence is allegedly leading to an impasse because Russia simply has no idea what to do with revenues in foreign currencies other than the US dollar, including the rupee and the yuan. However, such allegations are largely based on political speculation," said Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund.
"First, since much of Russia’s oil trade remains in the gray zone, external observers just don’t know what the breakdown of currencies used for oil exports is, and even the government barely has complete data on it. Some contracts still surely use the dollar, while there also are rubles, yuans, rupees, and UAE dirhams. Second, China and India are major producers of goods and services that can be purchased directly for yuans and rupees. Indian rupees may well be used to make payments for Indian goods and services, as well as for interacting with third countries that trade with both India and Russia," the expert added.
Izvestia: Sudan crisis unlikely to end soon
Over 180 people have been killed and more than 1,800 have suffered wounds since the conflict in Sudan broke out. Clashes between the country’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been going on since April 15 as army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo continue their struggle for political control. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that neither of the parties is capable of gaining a strategic advantage and, thus, resolving the crisis will require mediation efforts by external players.
"The conflict has been going on since 2019 with various degrees of intensity. We are now witnessing its acute phase, so a comprehensive solution may not be found soon. Mounting internal contradictions require compromises, but the parties are not ready for that yet," said Vsevolod Sviridov, an expert at the Higher School of Economics’ Center for African Studies (CAS).
CAS Director Andrey Maslov emphasized that "Russia has a balanced position." "During his visit to Sudan in February, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with the leaders of both parties that are now engaged in the conflict. Russia is interested in stability," the analyst explained. "The main countries that have ties with the opposing groups - the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt - have come up with peace initiatives. Other external partners, including Russia and China, are also most likely to try to prevent a long open conflict," Maslov added.
"What complicates the situation is that the opposing parties have equal capabilities. This may mark the start of a new round of the power struggle, which began largely as a result of the clumsy approach taken by UN representatives," Andrey Baklanov, deputy chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats, stressed. "Rather than assisting in the formation of a government and the creation of a committee for drafting a new constitution, UN representatives acted incompetently, but it’s unclear whether this was due to their lack of skill or due to actions taken in the interests of a specific group in Sudan," the expert explained. "At this point, there are no forces with unquestionable authority. Finding a way out of the general crisis will take a long time and a lot of effort by all the external players," Baklanov noted.
Kommersant: Russia looking set to repeat record grain export levels
A largely satisfactory harvest and enormous grain stocks are giving experts grounds to make optimistic plans for Russian wheat exports in the coming season. According to analyst estimates, the country will be able to export 37.5 mln to 45 mln metric tons, which will be comparable to the record high levels recorded this season. The restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports that were imposed by Eastern European countries may support wheat prices in the global market, Kommersant notes.
At the beginning of the week, wheat prices on world exchanges were boosted by news of a ban on the import of Ukrainian grain introduced by Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, which said the move was needed to support local grain farmers in their respective countries. According to media reports, Romania may impose similar restrictions. Bulgaria is also considering a temporary ban, the country’s Ministry of Agriculture said. Meanwhile, Poland later agreed to resume Ukrainian grain transit through its territory.
Prozerno Director Vladimir Petrichenko believes that if European countries maintain restrictions on Ukrainian grain exports, it will prevent dumping on the EU market, leading to a further rise in prices, which would have a positive impact on all suppliers.
Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, points out, however, that if Ukrainian grain transit through European countries continues, the impact on the global market would be minimal.
SovEcon Director Andrei Sizov says that the restrictions are likely to provoke a further reaction from Brussels, so global prices and Russian exports should not be expected to feel much of an impact. The expert added that issues pertaining to Ukrainian grain exports through the EU are increasing the importance of the grain deal. In the meantime, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that "it’s impossible to talk about" extending the grain deal beyond May 18 without resolving systemic problems (i.e. reconnecting Rosselkhozbank [the Russian Agricultural Bank] to the SWIFT payment system, resuming the export of agricultural equipment and spare parts to Russia, and lifting insurance restrictions).
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