MOSCOW, April 14. /TASS/. Afghanistan’s neighbors to demand that Washington foot the bill for the war-torn country’s post-conflict reconstruction; Brazilian President Lula’s visit to China should help revive ties among BRICS nations and boost their further integration; and Saudi Arabia seeks to persuade Middle Eastern countries to reconcile with Syria. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Afghanistan’s neighbors ready to send Washington a bill for damages
The US and its allies should bear the main financial burden for Afghanistan’s post-conflict reconstruction. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, this was the conclusion of a ministerial conference of Afghanistan's neighboring countries, which took place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Kommersant writes.
Akramzhon Nematov, First Deputy Director of the Institute of Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan, believes that facilitating Afghanistan’s social and economic development is the key to fighting terrorism in the country. This is what Afghanistan’s neighbors are especially interested in.
The neighboring countries are ready to assist Afghanistan, ruled by the Taliban (outlawed in Russia), provided that the movement respects women’s rights and creates an inclusive government, Vedomosti notes.
The interest of Russia and China in the Afghan issue is understandable. After pulling out of the country, the US left all of the problems to Afghanistan's neighbors, Higher School of Economics Professor Andrey Kazantsev points out. However, although Moscow and China are satisfied with the US withdrawal, it’s not quite clear what to do with Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to make decisions is questionable amid the split within the movement. As for calls for lifting sanctions, they will remain unanswered given Washington’s poor relationship with both Russia and China. The same goes for the Taliban’s requests that Afghanistan’s assets frozen in the US be returned to them.
The Samarkand meeting marks another effort to reach a regional consensus on Afghanistan, Head of the Center for Contemporary Afghan Studies Andrey Serenko noted. The situation in Afghanistan keeps getting worse and the neighboring countries have to react to it. The crisis will continue to deepen until changes start taking place in Afghanistan, Serenko said. The changes may be caused by struggles between various Taliban factions and the victory of a faction more inclined to listen to recommendations from the outside. Other options include the strengthening of the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front of Afghanistan or the Islamic State (outlawed in Russia). In the latter case, the military would have to interfere in Afghanistan’s affairs instead of diplomats, Serenko concluded.
Izvestia: Brazilian president’s China trip to revive BRICS ties, boost integration
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is being accompanied by a delegation of 240 business representatives during his visit to China on April 12-15. The key topics in the negotiations include ways to enhance cooperation and integration processes within the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Experts interviewed by Izvestia are unanimous in the opinion that the trip will strengthen integration, making the BRICS group a driving force for a common viewpoint on the foreign policy stage.
Boris Martynov, Head of the Department of International Relations and Russia’s Foreign Policy at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), believes that after Lula’s coming to power, ties between the BRICS countries, primarily between Brazil and China, can be expected to get a boost. The parties have recently agreed to shift to national currencies in mutual payments, which is a positive thing and corresponds to Russia’s interests. "China has been Brazil’s main trade and economic partner and the second largest investor in the region since 2010. Good prospects are opening up for the two countries as both adhere to the concept of building a multipolar world order," the expert emphasized.
Chief Researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Andrey Ostrovky pointed out that Lula’s visit would serve to expand relations between BRICS nations and overall bring their positions closer. "The situation has actually become clear in terms of foreign policy. There are the US and the European Union on the one side, while BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Russia and China are on the other side. The forces on the global stage are rapidly becoming polarized," the analyst explained.
Deputy Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Europe Vladislav Belov, in turn, noted that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock would be visiting China at the same time. "Given her criticism of the human rights situation in China and outlook on Taiwan, she can hardly expect a warm welcome. She definitely will call on China to maintain business ties with Germany but, at the same time, she will also speak about the need to increase the EU’s independence from China. After expressing Europe’s shared belief that unilateral efforts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and military tensions are unacceptable, she’s going to hear a corresponding response from China," the expert said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Riyadh urging regional neighbors to make up with Damascus
Saudi Arabia will host talks between Arab countries' foreign ministers on April 14. The focus will be on Damascus’ return to regional organizations. The meeting was preceded by the top Syrian diplomat’s historical visit to Jeddah, where issues pertaining to the restoration of bilateral relations were discussed. However, despite the softening in the Saudi ruling house’s position, some in the Middle East continue to oppose Syrian President Bashar Assad’s rehabilitation, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
According to insider information, Saudi Arabia’s initial plan was to invite Assad to the Arab League’s summit set for May 19. However, the existence of opposition within the regional club puts the feasibility of the idea in question.
"Riyadh certainly expects that its contact with Syria will add to the restoration of its relations with Iran, in particular," Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semenov pointed out. According to him, it would open the possibility for talks about Tehran giving other countries access to Damascus for the latter to be able to build relations with Arab nations and not only with Iran. Semenov says that Syria is expected to show that, apart from the Iran-led "axis of resistance," it also belongs to the Arab world. Meanwhile, Damascus is facing demands to build "a constructive dialogue with the opposition and relaunch the peace process that clearly has stalled," the expert noted.
Riyadh "is trying to promote its interests through dialogue, pushing Damascus towards a multipronged policy and a rapprochement with [other] Arab countries," the expert maintained, adding that Saudi Arabia was unlikely to perform diplomatic charity work, as it might seem at first glance. "Specific conditions are being put forward, including one to stop the inflow of drugs from Syria to the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia has an entire list of conditions that has been presented to Damascus," the analyst concluded.
Vedomosti: Most participants increasingly losing interest in grain deal
Russia sees no possibility of extending the deal for the export of grain from Ukraine’s southern ports after May 18, unless "five systemic problems" are resolved, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on April 13. According to the ministry, the agreement, which was extended for 60 days on March 14, only facilitates Ukraine’s commercial exports in the interests of Western countries, Vedomosti notes.
The five demands that the Russian Foreign Ministry enumerated include the need to reconnect Rosselkhozbank (the Russian Agricultural Bank) to the SWIFT payment system; resume supplies of agricultural equipment to Russia; lift restrictions on the insurance and re-insurance of Russian grain vessels and lift the ban on their access to ports; resume the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline; and unblock the foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies engaged in the production and transportation of food and fertilizers.
Senior Researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky says that the US and the EU, which play key roles in the negotiations, would hardly agree to make compromises in accordance with Russia’s demands. "Most of the Ukrainian grain has already been exported. Meanwhile, they are unwilling to even partially lift sanctions because the main goal is to continue putting pressure on the Russian economy amid the Ukrainian crisis," the expert said. "Moscow is trying to find alternative mechanisms for Russian exporters to reach global markets through Turkey and Qatar, including a resolution for the issue of vessel insurance," he added.
Last year’s overheating in the grain market is over and, so, the grain deals and the prospects for their termination are no longer having an impact on prices as they previously did, says Russian Grain Union President Arkady Zlochevsky. According to him, the markets are unlikely to react strongly if the deal is not extended beyond May 18. Zlochevsky notes that even reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT would not help Russian exporters fully resolve payment problems involving correspondent accounts at Western banks, which is where the main issue lies. "The deal could have some positive impact if it influenced cargo insurance, freight and the entire payment process because these are the three major problems," the expert explained.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: European Commission concedes seizing frozen Russian reserves a no-go
The European Commission has concluded that the EU authorities will be obligated to return the Central Bank of Russia reserves frozen in EU jurisdictions to Moscow once the Ukraine crisis ends, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes, citing the Die Welt newspaper, which in turn referred to an unpublished EC document.
"The European Commission has come to the disappointing conclusion that it’s impossible to lay claim to the frozen reserves, and when the conflict is over, they must be returned to Russia," the paper notes.
According to Lazar Badalov, associate professor in the department of economics at the National University of Science and Technology, it has been a hopeless issue since the start because the very attempt to seize Russia’s assets is inconsistent with the functioning of financial systems at the international level. Any such step would open up a Pandora’s box as everyone across the world would lose faith in and respect for the protection of investor rights and it would thus become possible to seize assets under any pretext. "The thing to understand is that conflicts between countries arise all the time. For instance, Iraq and Afghanistan may demand that the United States’ assets be frozen, and confiscate them afterwards," the expert said.
Badalov points out that the Central Bank of Russia’s assets are not simply a cash box but, as a rule, consist of funds invested in various financial instruments. The European Commission's decision alone is not enough to write these assets off because that would require a court order. The money is kept in various countries and litigation would have to be conducted in each of them, which could take years.
However, Western officials have already come up with the idea of investing the Central Bank of Russia’s frozen assets in European government bonds at an annual yield of 2.6%. The Commission believes that such a measure is legally feasible, and Russia’s alleged violations of international law would be cited as the rationale.
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