The Russian-Ukrainian talks will continue in an online format on April 4. Both sides note progress on all issues yet have different opinions as to who should lead the talks. The Ukrainian side thinks that the negotiations can already be held at the presidential level, while Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, asserts that it is too early to talk about this meeting before work on an agreement is completed. One of the main sticking points now is the recognition of the status of Crimea and Donbass. The State Duma told Izvestia that a referendum on the Donbass republics joining Russia is unlikely to be held before the year’s end. The priority is to conclude the military effort and restore the region’s economy.
Despite this, there are still chances that a meeting between the two leaders will take place. However, all the parameters of the agreement should be thoroughly prepared before that, Program Director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Ivan Timofeev told Izvestia. "A meeting resulting in nothing is unacceptable for the Russian leader. A theoretic possibility of such a meeting exists yet the practical foundation has not yet been prepared," he specified. According to him, the negotiations largely depend on the combat situation - he does not exclude that the stances of Kiev and Moscow may harden depending on military success. "A regrouping of Russian forces may be presented by Kiev as some sort of ‘victory.’ Russia now may also exert a more active effort in Donbass. In the event of a success, Moscow may also dig in its heels. This is why so far it is difficult to reach a compromise," the expert concluded.
According to his assessment, Russia and Ukraine have the potential to bring their positions closer on Ukraine’s neutral status and security guarantees. Still, compromises on Donbass and, moreover, on Crimea, look "dubious."
According to Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Dmitry Suslov, there is no unity in the West regarding the links between sanctions and the progress of the negotiations. Countries like the Netherlands, the UK, Poland and the US think that halting military activities and concluding a peace agreement is not enough to lift the sanctions. In their opinion, the restrictions should continue to weaken Russia’s international standing. "At the same time, major continental powers - France, Germany and Italy - do not share this point of view and stand for a complete or partial lifting of the sanctions once the special military operation is over," he told Izvestia, explaining that a balance will be sought between Europe’s aspiration to minimize the damage to its economy and the UK’s and Poland’s intention to inflict harm on Russia.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: How Russian gas is being sold for rubles globally
Beginning April 1, Western companies have to pay for Russian gas under a new arrangement by converting euros into rubles via Gazprombank. According to the representatives of the European energy industry, the gas being delivered now was paid for back in March and changes will be felt only closer to mid-April. That said, European politicians seem to be quite satisfied with the pattern proposed by Russia which allows them to "save face."
According to Sergey Kapitonov, a gas industry analyst at the Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO Energy Center, the idea to sell Russian gas for rubles is not new. A number of Gazprom’s contracts with consumers, including in Western Europe, make payments in rubles. The first delivery of Russian pipeline gas for rubles was made in 2019. Initially, there was a negative attitude towards the idea of buying Russian rubles for euros at one of Russia’s stock markets. However, this arrangement has been reconsidered. Now, a financial mediator is being created through the aegis of Gazprombank which will accept dollars and euros to pay for Russian gas and convert them into rubles, the expert says.
The payments for April deliveries will only begin in May, so European companies have a month to open an account with Gazprombank and gear up for the new payment guidelines, according to Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital.
In the opinion of Deputy Director General of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach, the new payment plan does not change anything for foreign buyers from a commercial point of view. As for Russia, these gas payments will be protected from various "creative" schemes on blocking or freezing European accounts.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Biden administration launches drive to bring down oil prices
Oil-consuming countries are trying to stop rising oils prices by selling their own reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will soon submit a coordinated plan on reducing strategic oil supplies which will be supported by about thirty countries. The ongoing energy crisis is being exacerbated by a possible decrease in Russian oil exports due to anti-Russian sanctions.
A small decrease in oil prices at the end of last week was facilitated by US President Joe Biden’s decision to sell about 1 mln barrels of oil per day from the strategic reserve. In all, 180 mln barrels will be sent to the market over the next six months.
Given the current prices and large discounts, Russia will still make a profit, says Vladislav Antonov, financial analyst with BitRiver. He also thinks that the US itself caused the price hike by introducing sanctions against Russia and deciding to ban the import of Russian oil. "Under the conditions of growing uncertainty with regards to the deliveries of Russian oil, the oil price won’t decrease quickly. And at OPEC+ they think that there is no deficit of oil on the oil market, so they are sticking to the earlier accepted agreement on the monthly increase of production," he explained.
Asset Manager at BCS World of Investment Vitaly Gromadin reiterated that the energy crisis began long before the developments in Ukraine. "The low supplies of natural gas at storage facilities in Europe and Asia led to fierce competition for volumes on the liquefied natural gas market. Later, demand shifted to alternative fuel, such as coal and diesel," he pointed out. As for the US’ decision to sell oil from its strategic supplies, the expert thinks that it can be viewed as a failure to return Iran to the ‘nuke deal’ which should have brought precisely about 1 mln barrels per day of additional volumes to the market.
Head of the analytical research department of the Russian Higher School of Financial Management Mikhail Kogan does not see any long-term factors for oil prices to drop. "This temporary initiative by the American leader is not capable of a large-scale impact on the market, especially if the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine - fraught with risks to supply chains - drags on. Prices will remain high in the coming weeks if there are no real signs of de-escalation. At present, no such factors are seen," he thinks.
Kommersant: Washington takes aim at Pakistan Stream
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan dismissed the government and called for early parliamentary elections. This happened immediately after the parliament’s vice-speaker blocked the vote of non-confidence aimed at the PM and warned about a foreign-plotted coup attempt. The breakdown of the ruling coalition began after February 24, when the Pakistani PM visited Moscow for the first time in a quarter of a century. A possible change of course by Islamabad threatens Russia and the CSTO with a new challenge and the disruption of the already coordinated Pakistan Stream project.
"The dynamics of the current crisis indicate that Pakistan is at the threshold of a power change which may nullify many agreements with Moscow considering that the new regime in Pakistan which will form in the next few months will be much more pro-American," Senior Research Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Vladimir Sotnikov explained to the newspaper.
"A special concern is caused by the fact that Pakistani Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa openly supported Russia’s adversaries. The drift of military-political heavyweights in Pakistan towards the US may have much more negative consequences for it in the Central Asian region bordering Afghanistan. Belligerent and extremist elements in the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) which is traditionally controlled by Pakistan’s special services as well as the terrorist groups of the Islamic State and Jamaat Ansarullah (both groups are outlawed in Russia) have not lost interest in spreading jihad beyond Afghan borders," Director of the analytical center at the Russian Society of Political Scientists Andrey Serenko added.
"Washington putting pressure on the Pakistani government inevitably leads to the complication of the security situation in the Central Asian region and the emergence of new risks for the CSTO countries," Senior Research Fellow at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy Vadim Kozyulin said.
Izvestia: Russia eyes expanding repatriation program for highly qualified specialists
The expansion of a repatriation program and additional benefits in order to attract highly qualified Russian nationals are being discussed in Moscow, Izvestia says quoting the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Nowadays, Russian agencies receive numerous requests from Russians who earlier moved to other countries, the newspaper says citing sources close to the government. According to the newspaper, it is uncomfortable for them to stay in certain countries where tension against Russians is permissible. Izvestia says that there are many highly qualified specialists among them that can be beneficial to Russia’s economy.
"Requests are pouring in from highly qualified specialists to return due to unfolding pressure on Russians living abroad. These appeals are of a rather mass nature so an idea emerged on programs for the return of such people who can bring their knowledge and experience from abroad. And there is definitely demand for them," one of the sources told the newspaper.
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