Kommersant: What awaits Afghanistan and its neighbors after US troop pullout
Washington’s troop pullout from Afghanistan has entered its final stage. Although US President Joe Biden has denied reports claiming that the process would be concluded in the next few days, the US will not put this off until the last moment on September 11, Kommersant wrote. Meanwhile, the US administration still has a lot to do before this event, and it is hoping for the active support of Central Asian states. However, considering the ongoing offensive by the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) near the borders of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the post-Soviet states may be the ones, who require support in the near future, the newspaper said.
The troop pullout from Afghanistan shows that NATO has been unable to improve the security situation. "It is more or less the same as it was at the start of the operation in 2001," Senior Researcher at the IMEMO Center for Post-Soviet Studies Stanislav Pritchin told Kommersant. "It seems that neither the US nor its allies had this goal. Meanwhile, this is not the first time, the US is looking for support in Central Asia. Although the republics themselves and Moscow reacted sharply to the idea of deploying part of the troops leaving Afghanistan in the region, the negotiations on this matter are likely still ongoing," he said.
Last week, National Security Adviser of Afghanistan Hamdullah Mohib met with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in Moscow. The statement issued on the outcomes of the talks was rather restrained. The parties declared that the security officials "focused on the security situation in Afghanistan during the pullout of Western military contingencies and the escalation of military-political situation in the northern part of the country."
"I think it was important for Patrushev to understand during the meeting with Mohib, how confident the representatives of President Ashraf Ghani are in his stability," Russian expert on Central Asia and Afghanistan Arkady Dubnov told Kommersant. "I don’t think that Moscow is ready to assure Ghani of its support after the Americans leave, since it will deal a blow to its relations with the Taliban. We need to understand clearly that figure of Ghani is completely unacceptable to the Taliban in any scenario of the coalition government, and the fact that Ghani is trying to stay afloat irritates Moscow." According to the expert, "the longer Ghani clings to power, the more large-scale the bloodshed in Afghanistan and the lesser Moscow’s influence on the future government in Kabul will become."
Izvestia: Russia opposed to expanding list of UN Security Council permanent members
Moscow does not support expanding the list of UN Security Council permanent members, Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky said in an interview with Izvestia published on Monday.
"We focus on the fact that any reform of the Security Council must be widely approved and lead to a more balanced composition of the Council. We are clearly opposed to expanding the number of states belonging to the "collective West", which is enough already in the UN Security Council. This includes Germany and Japan," Polyansky said, when asked to clarify Russia’s position on the fact that the UK would support Germany in its plans to become a UN Security Council permanent member.
Polyansky also noted that the states have very different opinions on the process of reforming the UN. He explained that this concerns the issue of permanent or non-permanent membership, as well as the decisions, on which regions have the right to expand their missions.
"However, regarding the outcomes of the recent rounds [of talks], everyone has come to a clear understanding that the historical injustice towards the African continent should be corrected. The majority are in favor of Asia and Latin America," the diplomat said. Polyansky stressed that expanding the share of developing states in the UN Security Council should be a priority issue, because their number is disproportionate compared to the amount of Western countries.
"Our approach to reform does not imply a mechanical expansion based on the principle of ‘let’s make it 50 members instead of 15 to ensure representation.’ The Security Council must remain a working and manageable body. Even now, we require many hours and efforts to come to a consensus. If its membership is expanded significantly, there will be issues about coordination. Therefore, we consider the optimal number of countries to be over 20," the Russian diplomat explained. He noted that Moscow’s position of expanding the representation of developing states coincides with the positions of other permanent members.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Lukaskenko takes revenge on EU by flooding borders with migrants
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has come out with bold statements on another set of terrorist plots having been uncovered. While local analysts try to make sense of what is behind these statements, the US and Lithuania have declared their willingness to hold the Belarusian leader accountable, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.
On Friday, Lukashenko revealed that the Belarusian government had exposed several plots, and more details came out over the weekend. According to Belarus, the terrorist plots were coordinated from Lithuania, Poland, the US, Ukraine, and Germany. All these unfriendly actions from its neighboring states have forced Belarus to take measures, with Lukashenko ordering the closure of the border with Ukraine. However, the president noted that "peaceful citizens crossing it for health reasons won’t have a problem".
Meanwhile, there is an emergency situation on the border with Lithuania, the newspaper notes. The Lithuanian border service reported on Sunday that 160 migrants from Belarus had been detained in the last 24 hours alone, bringing the total to over 1,098. These migrants are mainly citizens of Iran, Iraq, and Syria. According to the Belarusian Association of Journalists, by the end of the month, this figure will surpass 5,000.
According to Vilnius, the Belarusian government deliberately delivers potential illegal migrants by planes to Minsk and then provides bus transportation to the border for money, thereby allegedly taking revenge on Lithuania for its political position and support of the government’s opponents. Lithuania plans to bring up this issue at the European Parliament.
"The model of a fortress under siege is the only possible way for Lukashenko to currently survive," political analyst Valery Karbalevich cited by Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. "Lukashenko calls all his enemies, both foreign and domestic, fascists, and makes calls for unity around him with the mounting ‘brown plague’," he said. Karbalevich suggests that the main audience for the reports of terrorist plots is "a small circle of supporters and the law enforcement structures".
Kommersant: Foreign investors turning away from Russian stock
Foreign players have been scaling down their investments in Russian funds for three weeks in a row, withdrawing about $121 mln in this period and about $200 mln in the second quarter. Russian indices were among this year’s growth leaders, which caused investors to lock in their profits, and the Bank of Russia’s tightened monetary policy caused an inflow of funds to the bond market. However, the Russian market is still supported by the fact that it is commodity-oriented, offering high dividends with comparatively low company ratings.
Vyacheslav Smolyaninov, chief strategist at BCS Global Markets, pointed out to Kommersant that there is a common worldwide trend of switching to more global funds, with less money trickling into Russian and other regional funds.
According to the expert, Russian funds are different because "the sentiment regarding Russian stocks has undergone all stages, from acute fears of a war with Ukraine in early April, to hopes tied to the [Putin-Biden] summit." However, those who entered the market in the run-up to this event have begun to withdraw their investments now, although they are not doing it in an aggressive manner. Alexey Debelov, a partner with FP Wealth Solutions, notes that the positive effect of the Putin-Biden summit was capitalized on soon after its announcement. Besides, Aleksei Potapov, Head of Portfolio Management at UFG Wealth Management, told the paper that a strong ruble and the Bank of Russia’s toughened policy may attract some of the players investing in Russian assets to ruble bonds in detriment to Russian stocks.
On the whole, the position of investors on developing markets will remain tense due to the friction between Russia and China and the spread of COVID-19 in India and Russia. Nevertheless, many portfolio managers continue to favor the Russian market. Tatyana Simonova, head of the investment consulting department at General Invest, told the paper that the commodity-oriented Russian market remains attractive to investors due to its high dividends and comparatively low scores.
Izvestia: Experts discuss COVID-19 situation in Russia
The daily COVID-19 case rate in Russia may surpass 30,000, which may be caused by the citizens’ unwillingness to protect themselves from the disease on their own, experts quizzed by Izvestia note. On July 4, the daily case rate was 1,048 higher than the previous day for the first time in a while, since Sunday’s numbers tend to be slightly lower than those of Saturday. Specialists state that the Indian coronavirus strain is currently the dominant one in Russia. Medical experts stress that vaccination is the only way out of the present situation.
The Indian Delta strain is the leading one in Russia presently, Department Chief at the Gamaleya National Research Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology Alexander Butenko confirmed to Izvestia. He noted that the Delta strain is currently spreading both in Russia and Europe.
"Euro 2020 is underway now, people are going to public places, moving around freely. Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria are opening their borders. It’s likely to be a period of carelessness. Countries that have high discipline, like China, do not have this problem at all," the virologist said.
Given the current conditions, mass vaccination is the only way to protect citizens from the disease, Yevgeny Timakov, a pediatrician specializing in infectious diseases and vaccinology, told Izvestia. He stressed that those who recovered from the disease over six months ago should get vaccinated as well.
There are 2.7 mln people vaccinated in the Russian capital so far, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin informed on July 3. The vaccination rate should be sped up, as there are 12 mln official residents of the city and at least 2 mln migrants, Butenko stated.
According to the expert, it is harder to make predictions now than a year ago, as last year, there were comparatively few cases of COVID-19 in the summer, with cases rising after the vacation season ended, he reminded.
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