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Experts see no alternatives to CFE treaty for decades due to NATO’s anti-Russian stance

It is also explained that such deterrent mechanisms would be impossible in the context of the current hybrid war

MOSCOW, November 7. /TASS/. NATO's hybrid war against Russia makes it impossible to explore alternatives to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty) in the coming decades, polled experts have told TASS.

Earlier, NATO countries announced their intention to indefinitely pause participation in the CFE Treaty, as Russia had completed its pullout from the agreement on November 7.

"For at least a theoretical chance for seeking alternatives to the CFE Treaty to emerge the nature of political relations between Russia and NATO countries must change completely. It is hard to imagine this may happen in the coming decades. Such a treaty is impossible in the current era," says Vasily Kashin, the director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

He explained that such deterrent mechanisms would be impossible in the context of the current hybrid war.

"Now is not the time to talk about it or to recall agreements of this kind. At some future date, when the situation changes fundamentally, it will probably be possible to return to this issue," he explained.

As Timofey Bordachev, program director at the Valdai International Discussion Club, noted in turn, alternatives to the CFE Treaty will be possible only after a long while when the situation in European security "leads the parties to a compromise one way or another." He explained that without Russia the CFE Treaty made no sense, while NATO countries’ statements on this agreement were untenable, as Moscow would never backtrack.

Arms race

All polled analysts agreed that Russia's decision to finalize its withdrawal from the treaty was a plain statement of the hard facts in the conditions of NATO's confrontational policy and the threat of starting a new arms race.

"Withdrawal from the CFE Treaty is a sheer formality that once again emphasizes the current reality where pan-European security is based on the West's confrontation against Russia," said Dmitry Suslov, the deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics and expert of the Valdai Club.

"The actions that the US and NATO have been taking are tantamount to building European security against Russia on the basis of a new arms race, build-up of military presence near Russia's borders, deployment of military hardware, including attack weapons, and so on," he continued. "Naturally, this is fraught with a new arms race and soaring risks of an escalation".

About CFE treaty

The CFE Treaty was signed in 1990 and adapted in 1997. NATO countries have not ratified the adapted version of the document, continuing to adhere to the 1990 provisions, which contain conventional arms norms based on the balance between the alliance and the long-disbanded Warsaw Pact Organization. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the law denouncing the CFE Treaty on May 29, 2023. It entered into force on June 9. Moscow has repeatedly stated that the blame for the termination of the agreement will rest squarely upon the United States and its allies, who opted for confrontation.